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101.
102.
奶业产业链纵向价格传导受阻,导致奶牛养殖长期处于价值链的低增值环节,甚至出现“行业萎缩”现象.本文对上游奶牛养殖成本向下游乳品加工环节价格传导机制进行理论分析,并基于2008年1-12月份奶牛饲养成本和原料奶价格的月度数据,运用有限分布滞后模型测度价格传导的滞后效应.结果 表明:饲养成本向下游传导存在显著的滞后性,饲养... 相似文献
103.
To eliminate unnecessary feeding trials, a mechanistic model of sugarcane digestion was used in the search for suitable supplements to improve milk production. Milk production simulated by the model was compared with data observed in four feeding trials published in the tropical literature where crossbred dairy cows were fed sugarcane/urea diets with different types of supplements. The predicted effects of the supplements on the ruminal microbial population, concentrations of ammonia and volatile fatty acids were also compared with the published results in one experiment. The model indicated the nutrient most limiting milk production for the different feeding situations. The addtion of Leucaena to the basal sugarcane/urea improved the availability of amino acids and long-chain fatty acids, with energy becoming the limiting factor. Supplementation with rice bran increased the availability of energy and long-chain fatty acids, but amino acids then became the limiting factor. Supplementation with both Leucaena and rice bran further improved the milk yield, but availability of energy now limited milk production. Supplementation with Leucaena increased milk production more than supplementation with king grass. The main reason for this increase was increased amino acid absorption due to increased microbial outflow. In all feeding situations, the average difference between the predicted milk production and that observed experimentally was 0.57 kg/d (ranging from 0.08 to 1 kg/d). 相似文献
104.
The authors construct a microcanonical ensemble system and analyzes the phase change of the two-dimensional Ising model Cellular Automata Q2R/WQ2R method. The result indicates that the numerical value simulation can show the spontaneous magnetization of two-dimensional crystal lattice in isolated system. The authors have observed the critical phase transition phenomenon and gotten the critical energy. The simulation of three-dimensional Ising model can be grounded on the method that this article establishes. 相似文献
105.
M.J. Surez S. Munilla R.J.C. Cantet 《Zeitschrift für Tierzüchtung und Züchtungsbiologie》2015,132(1):21-29
Animals born by embryo transfer (ET) are usually not included in the genetic evaluation of beef cattle for preweaning growth if the recipient dam is unknown. This is primarily to avoid potential bias in the estimation of the unknown age of dam. We present a method that allows including records of calves with unknown age of dam. Assumptions are as follows: (i) foster cows belong to the same breed being evaluated, (ii) there is no correlation between the breeding value (BV) of the calf and the maternal BV of the recipient cow, and (iii) cows of all ages are used as recipients. We examine the issue of bias for the fixed level of unknown age of dam (AOD) and propose an estimator of the effect based on classical measurement error theory (MEM) and a Bayesian approach. Using stochastic simulation under random mating or selection, the MEM estimating equations were compared with BLUP in two situations as follows: (i) full information (FI); (ii) missing AOD information on some dams. Predictions of breeding value (PBV) from the FI situation had the smallest empirical average bias followed by PBV obtained without taking measurement error into account. In turn, MEM displayed the highest bias, although the differences were small. On the other hand, MEM showed the smallest MSEP, for either random mating or selection, followed by FI, whereas ignoring measurement error produced the largest MSEP. As a consequence from the smallest MSEP with a relatively small bias, empirical accuracies of PBV were larger for MEM than those for full information, which in turn showed larger accuracies than the situation ignoring measurement error. It is concluded that MEM equations are a useful alternative for analysing weaning weight data when recipient cows are unknown, as it mitigates the effects of bias in AOD by decreasing MSEP. 相似文献
106.
目的:建立无创伤的血瘀痛经小鼠模型。方法:雌性昆明种小鼠240只,连续灌胃己烯雌酚12 d,第11天背部皮下注射角叉菜胶,后动物饲养环境温度保持在8-10℃24 h,末次灌胃己烯雌酚1 h后,腹腔注射缩宫素,观察并记录小鼠扭体潜伏期、扭体次数与尾部血栓形成长度百分率及血小板聚集值。数据采用X±S表示,应用SPSS11.5统计软件进行t检验分析,筛选血瘀痛经小鼠模型建立条件。结果:模型建立方法为灌胃己烯雌酚2 mg/kg,连续12 d,第11天背部皮下注射角叉菜胶300 mg/kg,后将动物饲养环境温度保持在8-10℃24 h,第12天腹腔注射缩宫素25 u/kg,小鼠痛经扭体现象出现,尾部血栓形成明显。结论:小鼠血瘀痛经模型是一种造模方法易于掌握,造模成功后体征表征明显,便于观察,在活血调经药效筛选中可以节约实验动物的模型建立方法。 相似文献
107.
108.
Y-M. Chang D. Gianola B. Heringstad & G. Klemetsdal 《Zeitschrift für Tierzüchtung und Züchtungsbiologie》2006,123(5):290-300
Robust threshold models with multivariate Student's t or multivariate Slash link functions were employed to infer genetic parameters of clinical mastitis at different stages of lactation, with each cow defining a cluster of records. The robust fits were compared with that from a multivariate probit model via a pseudo‐Bayes factor and an analysis of residuals. Clinical mastitis records on 36 178 first‐lactation Norwegian Red cows from 5286 herds, daughters of 245 sires, were analysed. The opportunity for infection interval, going from 30 days pre‐calving to 300 days postpartum, was divided into four periods: (i) ?30 to 0 days pre‐calving; (ii) 1–30 days; (iii) 31–120 days; and (iv) 121–300 days of lactation. Within each period, absence or presence of clinical mastitis was scored as 0 or 1 respectively. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to draw samples from posterior distributions of interest. Pseudo‐Bayes factors strongly favoured the multivariate Slash and Student's t models over the probit model. The posterior mean of the degrees of freedom parameter for the Slash model was 2.2, indicating heavy tails of the liability distribution. The posterior mean of the degrees of freedom for the Student's t model was 8.5, also pointing away from a normal liability for clinical mastitis. A residual was the observed phenotype (0 or 1) minus the posterior mean of the probability of mastitis. The Slash and Student's t models tended to have smaller residuals than the probit model in cows that contracted mastitis. Heritability of liability to clinical mastitis was 0.13–0.14 before calving, and ranged from 0.05 to 0.08 after calving in the robust models. Genetic correlations were between 0.50 and 0.73, suggesting that clinical mastitis resistance is not the same trait across periods, corroborating earlier findings with probit models. 相似文献
109.
基于GIS的降水多元回归模型在黑河干流山区的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
结合GIS和统计学方法,利用21个站点气象数据和DEM(基于5个因子:高程、坡度、坡向、经度和纬度)在黑河干流山区构建一种多元非线性回归模型,用以模拟研究区降水量空间分布,并分析了全年、湿季和干季3种情景及3种不同空间分辨率数据相互耦合下的雨量变化。结果表明,该模型可解释研究区74.5%的年降水空间变异,对湿季降水量解释效果要好于全年和干季两种情景;100 m分辨率下的3种降水模型效果均为最好;降水量空间分布不均匀,100 m分辨率下,由西北部不足200 mm增加至东南部700 mm左右,降水量分界线呈西北-东南走向;500 m分辨率的降水量分界呈带状,有一定程度上移;1 000 m分辨率的降水量分布误差大。本研究采用的建模方法有较强移植性,可在其他山区开发类似模型,利用其模拟结果进行更深入的研究,今后在建模中加入空间化的风速变量有可能进一步提高模型精度。 相似文献
110.
养猪产业是畜牧经济中的一项具有发展优势和潜力的产业。由于我国发达地区劳动力成本的不断增加,使得养殖业出现了向中西部转移的趋势,这就为西北地区发展养猪业提供了良好的机遇。分析了西北地区养猪业的发展现状,并对西北地区猪产业化发展规划及经营模式进行了初步探讨。 相似文献