广东省农业发展优势度综合评价方法及其空间特征研究

客观评价农业发展优势,并对症施策,有助于促进农业高质高效发展和乡村全面振兴。本文从自然地理本底、农业生产环境、农业质量效益、经营组织效益、生态协调能力、产业发展潜力等6个维度构建农业发展优势度评价指标体系,借助熵权法、机器学习神经网络算法等评价并揭示了2019年广东省县域农业发展优势度及其空间特征。结果表明：2019年广东省农业发展综合优势度空间差异明显,珠江三角洲平原区县域的农业优势最突出。6个分项中,自然地理本底、农业生产环境和生态协调能力是主要贡献因素。其中,自然地理本底和经营组织效益均表现为粤西南方向最优;农业生产环境表现为粤东北方向最优;产业发展潜力表现为粤东南方向较优;农业质量效益、生态协调能力与农业综合优势度整体空间分布相似,但农业质量效益不再是农业发展优势度的关键影响因素,粤中南和东北方向的生态协调优势突出。因此,建议结合农业分项与综合优势,未来在珠江三角洲平原区以及粤西南、粤东南和粤东北分别形成现代都市农业区、高效农业区、特色农业区和生态农业区,助力农业高质量发展。     

基于GIS和空间自相关模型的南宁市林地空间变化研究

【目的】掌握南宁市林地时空分布的变化规律,为制定科学有效的林地管理措施提供基础数据。【方法】基于2008、2013、2018年3期南宁市森林资源调查数据,应用空间统计技术,结合转移矩阵及空间自相关模型,分析不同时期南宁市林地分布格局,探究林地时空分布动态变化特征及空间聚集规律。【结果】2008—2018年,南宁市天然林面积减少2.39×10⁴ hm²,人工林面积增加2.60×10⁴ hm²,其他林地面积减少2.98×10⁴ hm²,林地总面积略有减少;林地类型变化繁杂,天然林和其他林地主要转化为人工林,人工林主要转化为非林地,其中2013—2018年林地变化更为剧烈;天然林和人工林的分布均具有显著的空间自相关性,天然林的空间自相关性高于人工林。整个研究期间,天然林和人工林的空间聚集性均呈下降趋势。【结论】2008—2018年南宁市林地发生较大的转移及变化,为有效保护林地、实现森林资源的可持续发展,需进一步加强实施科学有效的林地资源保护政策和措施。     

西北地区生态保护与经济高质量发展耦合研究

【目的】构建西北地区生态保护与经济高质量发展综合评价指标体系,测度西北地区“生态-经济”系统耦合协调水平,为促进“生态-经济”系统及其要素协同共进提供对策建议。【方法】基于西北5省区2008—2020年的面板数据,运用熵值法与耦合协调度模型测算西北地区“生态-经济”系统耦合协调水平,利用聚类分析将西北地区“生态-经济”系统耦合程度划分为6个等级。【结果】西北地区“生态-经济”系统耦合协调度时序特征在考察期内稳定增长,协调水平逐步由轻度失调、低水平协调向优质协调过渡。空间特征表现在“生态-经济”系统耦合协调度呈现出陕西>甘肃>新疆>青海>宁夏的特征,西北5省区于2016—2020年间均达到并保持在V类基本协调水平,其中陕西于2020年率先进入Ⅵ类优质协调水平,宁夏和青海“生态-经济”系统耦合协调度波动增长。【结论】西北地区内部存在较强的空间异质性,应从内源创新、消费升级与政府推动3个方面完善西北地区“生态-经济”系统及其要素协同发展机制。     

Linking spatial pattern of bottom fish assemblages with water masses in the North Sea

Understanding the links between large scale spatial structuring of fish assemblages and shaping factors is essential to develop comprehensive ecosystem-based fisheries management. In this study, we investigated spatial patterns of bottom fish assemblages in the North Sea in relation to prevailing water masses in the region. We based our analysis on catch data from the German Small-Scale Bottom Trawl Survey conducted between 1987 and 2005 and used both ordination techniques and Mantel tests. Spatial variability of bottom fish assemblages was larger than inter-annual variability. Five significantly different bottom fish assemblages were associated with the following prevailing hydrographical regimes: i) the English Channel, ii) Continental Coastal, iii) central North Sea, iv) northern North Sea, and v) northern Atlantic water masses. Associations were generated by gradients in relative proportions of abundant species such as grey gurnard ( Eutrigla gurnardus ), dab ( Limanda limanda ), whiting ( Merlangius merlangus ), haddock ( Melanogrammus aeglefinus ) and Norway pout ( Trisopterus esmarki ). Taking into account large scale spatial structuring of catch data Mantel tests confirmed significant correlation between the fish assemblages and hydrographical variables. In summary, our results strongly support the hypotheses that hydrographical features such as water masses, fronts, and residual currents could shape bottom fish associations in the North Sea. Spatial demarcations of bottom fish assemblages indicated by this study can be used to support ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies.     

近年渤海中部海域活性磷酸盐的时空变化特征

渤海封闭性强,水动力条件和自净能力较弱,其生态系统较为敏感和脆弱。2011年位于渤海中部的蓬莱19-3油田发生重大溢油事故,对渔业生态环境和渔业资源造成了严重影响。为了解和掌握该起溢油污染事故发生后渔业生态环境的变化状况,分别于2012?2014年在渤海中部海域进行了9个航次的生态环境跟踪调查。利用其中部分调查资料,作者对渤海中部活性磷酸盐的时空变化特征及其影响因素进行了分析探讨。结果显示,(1)2012?2014年春季和夏季渤海中部海域活性磷酸盐含量符合第二类海水水质标准要求,秋、冬季部分海域已受到活性磷酸盐的污染。(2)不同季节渤海中部海域活性磷酸盐的平面分布趋势各异,垂直分布也存在季节差异。春季和夏季活性磷酸盐呈现由表层至底层递减的趋势,秋季和冬季接近呈垂直分布均匀状态。(3)渤海中部海域活性磷酸盐平均含量季节变化明显,其含量顺序由高到低依次为冬季、秋季、春季、夏季,冬季明显高于夏季。2014年渤海中部海域活性磷酸盐含量低于2013年,呈逐年降低趋势。(4)渤海中部海域活性磷酸盐时空变化受到诸多因素的影响,营养盐的外源补充、内源再生和生物消耗是影响活性磷酸盐时空变化的最重要因素。     

The pelagic habitat analysis module for ecosystem‐based fisheries science and management

We have developed a set of tools that operate within an aquatic geographic information system to improve the accessibility, and usability of remote‐sensed satellite and computer‐modeled oceanographic data for marine science and ecosystem‐based management. The tools form the Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module (PHAM), which can be applied as a modeling platform, an investigative aid in scientific research, or utilized as a decision support system for marine ecological management. Applications include fisheries, marine biology, physical and biological oceanography, and marine spatial management. The GIS provides a home for diverse data types and automated tools for downloading remote sensed and global circulation model data. Within the GIS environment, PHAM provides a framework for seamless interactive four‐dimensional visualization, for matching between disparate data types, for flexible statistic or mechanistic model development, and for dynamic application of user developed models for habitat, density, and probability predictions. Here we describe PHAM in the context of ecosystem‐based fisheries management, and present results from case study projects which guided development. In the first, an analysis of the purse seine fishery for tropical tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean revealed oceanographic drivers of the catch distribution and the influence of climate‐driven circulation patterns on the location of fishing grounds. To support management of the Common Thresher Shark (Alopias vulpinus) in the California Current Ecosystem, a simple empirical habitat utilization model was developed and used to dynamically predict the seasonal range expansion of common thresher shark based on oceanographic conditions.     

Assessing opportunity and relocation costs of marine protected areas using a behavioural model of longline fleet dynamics

Increasing use of spatial management tools in fisheries requires an understanding of fleet response, and in particular to where displaced fishing effort is likely to move. We develop a state‐dependent decision‐making model to address the spatial allocation of effort in an Australian tuna longline fishery. We assume that fishers have an economic objective in deciding where to fish, but that decisions in any period are also influenced by the remaining quota held at the time of the decision. Key features of the model include endogenous price dynamics, a moving stock and a competitive pool of different vessel types operating from different port locations. We utilize this model to illustrate fleet responses to marine reserves and limits on fishing effort. The results illustrate that the model framework provides advantages over statistically based models in that decisions made in response to the imposition of a reserve are not consistent with a proportional reallocation of effort. Rather, the stochastic dynamic model yielded an overall profit level of ～4% higher relative to scenarios with no reserve. Incorporating the opportunity cost of a quota into the model resulted in an optimal utilization of effort, in which effort was concentrated in time periods and locations yielding maximized profit. Under a low level of effort relative to the season length, the model indicated an overall profit level 43% greater than the highest obtained when the same level of effort was applied solely within any given quarter of the season.     

应用分层抽样技术估计北部湾底拖网渔业产量

传统的按行政单元逐级上报的渔业产量调查方法在数据获取过程中受人为因素的干扰,而全面普查的方法受限于时间和经费,相比而言,抽样调查是一种科学合理的方法。本研究于2007年8月对北部湾底拖网产量进行了调查,以全体底拖网渔船为抽样总体,按功率段划分了抽样层次,按比例分配了抽样单元数,分别以生产渔船总数和总功率数推算总产量,并比较了这两种方法的方差。结果表明,用每kW平均产量估计总产量的变异系数为1.13%,用单船平均产量估计总产量的变异系数为14.65%。同时由于渔业抽样调查的难点在于总体船数的掌握,建议统计推断时,采用单位渔捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）推算总体渔获量。     

南麂岛岩礁潮间带软体动物种类数量变化及其演替

为揭示南麂岛岩礁潮间带软体动物种类组成与数量分布及其演替状况,于2013年11月,2014年2月、5月、8月,共4次对南麂岛的潮间带7个断面进行了定量和定性调查,并对软体动物的种类、数量和优势种变化及物种多样性进行了研究。结果显示,共鉴定出软体动物种类63种,隶属于3纲113目34科52属,其平均栖息密度和生物量为506.5个/m2和801.54 g/m2;条纹隔贻贝(Septifer virgatus)是4个季节共有的且优势度最大的优势种;软体动物Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H')平均值为冬季(1.73)春季(1.69)夏季(1.58)秋季(1.40);与历史资料对比发现,其物种数及生物量有一定程度的减少。研究表明,南麂岛岩礁潮间带的软体动物发育较好,栖息密度和生物量远高于邻近的其他岛屿,但与此前调查结果相比却有所降低。