粮食安全与生态安全双约束下江苏省耕地休耕规模探讨

实施耕地休耕是巩固提升粮食产能和促进农业可持续发展的重要举措,亟需科学合理地确定我国可休耕耕地规模,为深入实施"藏粮于地"战略和扩大耕地休耕制度试点提供理论依据。该研究基于粮食安全与生态安全双重约束构建粮食主产区耕地休耕最大规模测算仿真模型,同时提出休耕规模弹性边界的确定方法并以江苏省为实证区域进行仿真预测。结果表明：当前江苏省在兼顾粮食主产区的粮食调配任务且考虑区域耕地资源可持续利用状况的基础上,仍能保有10.16%的耕地资源来支撑耕地休耕制度的实施;仿真期内区域耕地资源面积可能会由于城市快速扩张和耕地保护不力出现大幅减少,并对区域耕地休耕条件环境产生影响;同时耕地资源可持续利用状况和休耕规模适宜程度的恶化导致江苏省休耕规模弹性边界从2017年的9.93%缩减至2036年的4.81%,区域粮食安全稳定状态终将被打破。建议充分利用粮食主产区的耕地资源基础积极有序推广开展耕地休耕工作,深入部署"藏粮于地"战略以巩固提升粮食产能;建立休耕规模与生态安全挂钩的指标预警体系以实现对休耕实施方案的宏观动态调节;统筹休耕与其他耕地保护政策的正向联动,创造耕地保护政策体系内部的正向溢出效应。     

利用OWA和电路模型优化黄河流域甘肃段生态安全格局

从生态系统服务视角出发优化生态安全格局,对于维护区域生态安全格局,确保经济社会稳定发展意义重大,但现有研究缺乏对多种生态系统服务之间权衡情景下生态系统状况的认知。该研究以黄河流域甘肃段为研究单元,在测度2019年食物供给、碳固定、产水量、土壤保持及生境质量5种典型生态系统服务的基础上,利用有序加权平均(Ordered Weighted Averaging,OWA)模型识别出生态系统服务权衡度最高的优先保护区作为生态源地,利用最小累积阻力模型和电路模型识别生态廊道和战略点区域,进行生态安全格局构建与优化。结果表明:黄河流域甘肃段生态源地斑块共计169个,总面积27 460.56 km2,约占研究区总面积的19.2%。5种生态系统服务之间在全流域尺度下呈现出协同关系,甘南高原、陇中、陇东黄土高原由于受地形气候和植被覆盖以及人类活动的影响,生态系统服务差异显著。利用电路模型提取得到441条生态廊道,总体呈网状分布,贯穿东西,识别出生态节点49个。提出构建"四轴、六区、多中心"的黄河流域甘肃段生态安全空间布局优化体系,形成功能化、网络化的区域生态空间优化结构。     

低模数水玻璃对橡胶轻骨料混凝土力学性能的影响

为了了解不同掺量水玻璃对橡胶轻骨料混凝土(RLC)力学性能的影响,在RLC中加入水玻璃,并用20％粉煤灰代替水泥,制作水玻璃掺量分别为0,2％,4％,6％,8％的混凝土试块.通过核磁共振试验研究其微观孔隙变化及强度形成机理;进行对数函数曲线预测和BP神经网络强度预测,判断其可靠性并对比优劣.结果表明:水玻璃的掺入使RL...     

Outbreak of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) in lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) in Iceland caused by VHS virus genotype IV

A novel viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) of genotype IV was isolated from wild lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus), brought to a land‐based farm in Iceland, to serve as broodfish. Two groups of lumpfish juveniles, kept in tanks in the same facility, got infected. The virus isolated was identified as VHSV by ELISA and real‐time RT‐PCR. Phylogenetic analysis, based on the glycoprotein (G) gene sequences, may indicate a novel subgroup of VHSV genotype IV. In controlled laboratory exposure studies with this new isolate, there was 3% survival in the I.P. injection challenged group while there was 90% survival in the immersion group. VHSV was not re‐isolated from fish challenged by immersion. In a cohabitation trial, lumpfish infected I.P. (shedders) were placed in tanks with naïve lumpfish as well as naïve Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). 10% of the lumpfish shedders and 43%–50% of the cohabiting lumpfish survived after 4 weeks. 80%–92% of the Atlantic salmon survived, but no viral RNA was detected by real‐time RT‐PCR nor VHSV was isolated from Atlantic salmon. This is the first isolation of a notifiable virus in Iceland and the first report of VHSV of genotype IV in European waters.     

Geographical information system (GIS) environmental models for aquaculture development in Sinaloa State,Mexico

This paper describes the use of a geographical information system (GIS) to construct environmental models for land-based aquaculture development in the State of Sinaloa, Mexico. Based on the source data, submodels were created focusing on three different themes: general environmental issues, water resources and water quality. Models enabled multicriteria and multiobjective decision making concerning site selection and location. In assessing site considerations these general models identified wider resource management options and solved conflicts of land allocation and land use between aquaculture and agriculture. Smaller-scale, more specific models enabled more detailed studies on environmental issues.     

A dynamic mass-balance model for marine protected areas

A modified Ecosim model was used to investigate the impact of establishing marine protected areas (MPAs) in ecosystems defined by existing Ecopath models. The impact of MPAs of various sizes was simulated, and changes in biomass and catch over a range of years observed. The response of biomass and catch to MPA size depended on the time period examined. For some ecosystem groups, the initial response was negative, but for all groups there were increases after 10 years. The greater the biomass exchange rate across the MPA boundary, the larger the MPA required to increase biomass levels. Within the range of exchange rates simulated, the maximum increases in catch and overall biomass levels were reached when 20% of the system was protected.     

Spatio‐temporal trends of sailfish,Istiophorus platypterus catch rates in relation to spawning ground and environmental factors in the equatorial and southwestern Atlantic Ocean

Spatial and temporal trends of sailfish catch rates in the southwestern and equatorial Atlantic Ocean in relation to environmental variables were investigated using generalized additive models and fishery‐dependent data. Two generalized additive models were fit: (i) ‘spatio‐temporal’, including only latitude, longitude, month, and year; and (ii) ‘oceanographic’, including sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll‐a concentration, wind velocity, bottom depth, and depth of mixed layer and year. The spatio‐temporal model explained more (average ~40%) of the variability in catch rates than the oceanographic model (average ~30%). Modeled catch rate predictions showed that sailfish tend to aggregate off the southeast coast of Brazil during the peak of the spawning season (November to February). Sailfish also seem to aggregate for feeding in two different areas, one located in the mid‐west Atlantic to the south of ~15°S and another area off the north coast of Brazil. The oceanographic model revealed that wind velocity and chlorophyll‐a concentration were the most important variables describing catch rate variability. The results presented herein may help to understand sailfish movements in the Atlantic Ocean and the relationship of these movements with environmental effects.     

Predicting the age of fish using general and generalized linear models of biometric data: A case study of two estuarine finfish from New South Wales, Australia

Direct ageing of fish can be a laborious and expensive task when age estimates from a large population are required, and often involves a degree of subjectivity. This study examined the application of general and generalized linear models that predict the age of fish from a range of efficiently and objectively measured covariates. The data sampled were from yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis (Sparidae) (Owen, 1853)) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata (Sillaginidae) Cuvier, 1829) populations from New South Wales, Australia. The covariates evaluated in the models were fish length, otolith weight, sex and location (the estuary from which the fish were sampled). Akaike Information Criteria were used for model selection and residual plots of the final models revealed a satisfactory fit to the observations. The best fitting model for each species included all covariates. An additional investigation considered whether general and generalized linear models that predict age from two different categories of biometric information outperform age-length keys with respect to subsequent estimates of total mortality from catch-curve analysis. The two categories of biometric information differed in the ease and cost with which the information could be collected. The first category only included fish length and location as covariates, whilst the second category also included otolith weight and sex. It was found that traditional age-length keys outperformed the predictive models that estimated age from only fish length and location, because the results from the models were prone to significant bias. However, when otolith weight and sex were added as covariates to the predictive models, some of them, including a generalized linear model with a Poisson-distributed response variable, performed similarly to the age-length key. Given that otolith weight and the sex of fish are cheaper to quantify than age from a sectioned otolith in many situations, general or generalized linear models may represent a cheaper and faster method of estimating mortality compared to age-length keys. Such models can also easily incorporate the influence of spatial, temporal and demographic variation.     

基于高光谱数据的水体叶绿素a指数反演模型的建立

水体叶绿素a含量是反映水体质量的重要指标之一,利用遥感技术监测其含量具有众多优势。该研究利用2012年7月在广西壮族自治区桂林市漓江流域实地采集的水体高光谱数据和实验室化验分析数据,借鉴陆表植被叶绿素a的遥感反演模型,发展了一种新的水体叶绿素a提取指数(water chlorophyll-a index,WCI)。通过与反射率敏感波段法、波段比值法和半分析方法对比分析发现,新提出的WCI指数使用650、685、696 nm波段,波段稳定,决定系数R2可达0.58,均方根误差最小为0.24,受水体悬浮物影响小,在天津海河区域的验证效果也表明了该模型可以有效地提取水体叶绿素a含量。该方法扩展了水体叶绿素a监测的建模思路,对水体叶绿素a监测建模有一定的指导作用。