The construction and application of a population physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for methadone in Beagles and Greyhounds

Methadone is an opioid analgesic in veterinary and human medicine. To help develop appropriate pain management practices and to develop a quantitative model for predicting methadone dosimetry, a flow‐limited multiroute physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for methadone in dogs constructed with Berkeley Madonna? was developed. The model accounts for intravenous (IV), subcutaneous (SC), and oral administrations, and compartmentalizes the body into different components. This model was calibrated from plasma pharmacokinetic data after IV administration of methadone in Beagles and Greyhounds. The calibrated model was evaluated with independent data in both breeds of dogs. One advantage of this model is that most physiological parameter values for Greyhounds were taken directly from the original literature. The developed model simulates available pharmacokinetic data for plasma concentrations well for both breeds. After conducting regression analysis, all simulated datasets produced an R ² > 0.80 when compared to the measured plasma concentrations. Comparative analysis of the dosimetry of methadone between the breeds suggested that Greyhounds had ~50% lower 24‐hr area under the curve (AUC) of plasma or brain concentrations than in Beagles. Furthermore, population analysis was conducted with this study. This model can be used to predict methadone concentrations in multiple dog breeds using breed‐specific parameters.     

The value of vegetation cover for ecosystem services in the suburban context

Latin-American cities can be characterized by dynamic processes of urbanization that encroach upon the natural and semi-natural surrounding landscapes. Our study presents the effects of landscape development, transformed from semi-natural conditions into a mostly disperse suburban settlement. We explore the impact that this transformation has had on this context by three ecosystem services that regulate rainwater runoff, enhance microclimate conditions and help to improve air quality by monitoring vegetation cover. We have designed a spatio-temporal hierarchical analysis which employs remote sensing techniques to capture the structural changes of this landscape over long, medium and short term scales on two spatial levels. This methodological approach was tested in the Metropolitan Area of Santiago (MAS) as case study area. Despite of the increase in impervious surfaces due to urban processes, there has also been an increase in vegetation cover, which has led to an improvement in the provision of the above-mentioned ecosystem services. Hence, if diverse urbanization processes continue and they are coupled with an increase in vegetation cover, the provision of ecosystem services could also expand. This phenomenon can be observed in some areas, where public and private green spaces are created and maintained. Our data analyses give evidence that certain types of suburban areas which increase the share of vegetation cover can provide daily ecological benefits for urban neighborhoods, and beyond, for adjacent areas. Moreover, suburban development can successfully provide ecological benefits to citizens. Such processes can only be ecologically sustainable if the composition of vegetation is well-adapted to the regional climatic conditions.     

基于纵向传导的蔬菜批零价格关系研究——以北京市果类蔬菜为例

从蔬菜产业的纵向看,批发和零售是两个重要环节,蔬菜批发价格和零售价格的走势以及它们之间的关系是各界关注的焦点。本文以北京市场为例,以番茄和黄瓜两种果类蔬菜的按日批零价格为对象,运用有限分布滞后模型和误差修正模型进行实证分析,研究蔬菜批零价格间的传导关系,并在此基础上揭示蔬菜批发价格在蔬菜价格形成中的作用。研究发现:蔬菜批零价格走势基本一致,相关系数很高;批零价格间存在批发价格向零售价格单向传导的因果关系;批零价格的传导是顺畅的,但不同种蔬菜传导的时间效应有所不同;批发价格在蔬菜价格形成中占据主导作用,当蔬菜价格受到冲击时,若零售价格过高则其会向着批发价格下调,若批发价格过高则零售价格会随之走高。     

高校心理健康教育网络课程模式的构建与实例分析

计算机多媒体技术和网络技术日新月异的发展,教育信息化的推进,为努力实现高校心理健康教育课程教学内容、教学手段和教学方法的全面创新,本文以《心理健康教育》网络课程为例,尝试剖析其在模式构建、教学设计、交互安排、教学应用等方面的特征,以期为开辟高校心理健康教育课程的新模式提供思路。     

小兴安岭天然林不同树种的树高曲线模型

选用10种树高曲线模型作为候选模型,以决定系数(R~2)、残差平方和(S_(se))和均方差(M_(se))作为模型优劣的评价指标,对小兴安岭天然林中的云杉(Picea asperata)、红松(Pinus koraiensis)、水曲柳(Fraxinus mandschurica)、椴树(Tilia tuan)4种树种的树高曲线模型进行优选。结果表明:云杉、红松和椴树的最优模型均为Logistic模型,水曲柳的最优模型为抛物线模型;云杉和红松两种针叶树种,最优模型的优势不明显,水曲柳和椴树两种阔叶树种最优模型的优势较明显;比较R~2的大小,得出较适合小兴安岭云杉和红松两种针叶树种的树高曲线模型(R~20.8),对小兴安岭阔叶树种的适用程度不具有普遍性,对椴树的适用性好(R~2最大达0.94),对水曲柳的适用性较差(R~20.8)。对水曲柳的树高进行分段研究得出:水曲柳在树高低于9 m时,树高曲线模型较适宜(R~20.8),其中抛物线模型为最优模型;树高较高时,没有适用的树高曲线模型。     

基于EEF模型的昆明市生态系统发展状态评价

运用能值分析理论改进的生态足迹模型(EEF),对昆明市2002~2011年能值足迹的动态变化进行分析,并应用GM(1,1)模型,对未来10年人均能值进行预测。结果发现:EEF模型的计算数值明显高于传统模型;昆明市生态系统出现盈余,处于可持续发展状态;在自然环境、经济状况不发生"突变"的前提下,2012~2020年人均能值盈余呈下降趋势且年均递减率为20.57%,尽管生态系统没有赤字,但生态安全面临严峻挑战。本研究对"新昆明"建设及其生态系统的可持续发展将有着重要的启示。     

基于读者信息行为规律的信息服务管理策略

论述了网络环境下,高校图书馆读者信息行为规律的变化及共性特征,并进行了实证分析研究。在此基础上,提出了图书馆多样化、多元化、个性化和一站式的信息服务管理策略。     

贵州省农村信息化服务现状实证分析与发展对策

[目的]为深入了解贵州省农村信息化服务现状,以期更科学地探索与设计贵州省农村信息化服务模式,为广大农民提供优质的信息服务.[方法]对贵州省所有地州市典型县份、典型乡（镇）和行政村的农户以进村入户、现场调查、走访、座谈和发放问卷等方式进行实地调查和数据采集,并利用SPSS 19.0统计分析软件对数据进行分析处理.[结果]贵州省农村信息化服务基础设施建设成效显著、信息传播渠道呈立体化发展、信息服务内容丰富.但也存在基础设施运行效率不高、信息传播渠道不够畅通、信息资源质量不高、信息支付意愿不强等问题.[建议]应加大基础设施建设力度、提高基础设施利用率,整合各种信息传播途径、畅通信息服务渠道,加大信息资源建设力度、提高信息内容质量,加强教育力度、提高信息意识,以推动贵州省农村信息化服务快速发展.     

甘肃省农村信息化发展水平探讨

农村信息化是社会主义新农村建设的重要内容,是解决"三农"问题的突破口。对于欠发达的甘肃农村经济,近年来虽然取得很大进步,但总体水平还不高,与发达地区的差距还很明显。在客观数据的基础上,基于因子分析方法建立了综合评价农村信息化水平的模型,直观的比较了各省市的农村信息化水平,认为信息资源的利用情况和信息基础设施建设的差异是评价农村信息化水平的决定因素,提高农村信息化水平必须从这两方面着手,切实可行的推进甘肃农村信息化的发展。     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．