Deterioration Model and Reliability Analysis on Concrete Material at Stress States

According to the analysis of existing test data, the stress influence coefficient and water-cement ratio influence coefficient in the existing concrete carbonation depth forecasting models are modified and improved. Based on the reliability analysis, the rule of deterioration life is presented. The analysis shows that the rate of carbonation of concrete is accelerated or restricted at the status of tensile or compressive stress, respectively. Especially with the increase of the level of tensile stress, the carbonation rate of concrete will become faster and faster. According to the results of reliability analysis, the relation between probability and reliability of the concrete deterioration is one-to-one corresponsive, meanwhile, the concrete cover thicknesses and stress levels have great influences on the durability life of concrete structures. And with the same reliability, the time of deterioration of concrete decreases with a higher stress levels and a less cover thickness.     

Estimation of accuracies and expected genetic change from selection for selection indexes that use multiple‐trait predictions of breeding values

Procedures are described for estimating selection index accuracies for individual animals and expected genetic change from selection for the general case where indexes of EBVs predict an aggregate breeding objective of traits that may or may not have been measured. Index accuracies for the breeding objective are shown to take an important general form, being able to be expressed as the product of the accuracy of the index function of true breeding values and the accuracy with which that function predicts the breeding objective. When the accuracies of the individual EBVs of the index are known, prediction error variances (PEVs) and covariances (PECs) for the EBVs within animal are able to be well approximated, and index accuracies and expected genetic change from selection estimated with high accuracy. The procedures are suited to routine use in estimating index accuracies in genetic evaluation, and for providing important information, without additional modelling, on the directions in which a population will move under selection.     

Accuracy of genomic prediction using different models and response variables in the Nordic Red cattle population

Breeding animals can be accurately evaluated using appropriate genomic prediction models, based on marker data and phenotype information. In this study, direct genomic values (DGV) were estimated for 16 traits of Nordic Total Merit (NTM) Index in Nordic Red cattle population using three models and two different response variables. The three models were as follows: a linear mixed model (GBLUP), a Bayesian variable selection model similar to BayesA (BayesA*) and a Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model (Bayesian Lasso). The response variables were deregressed proofs (DRP) and conventional estimated breeding values (EBV). The reliability of genomic predictions was measured on bulls in the validation data set as the squared correlation between DGV and DRP divided by the reliability of DRP. Using DRP as response variable, the reliabilities of DGV among the 16 traits ranged from 0.151 to 0.569 (average 0.317) for GBLUP, from 0.152 to 0.576 (average 0.318) for BayesA* and from 0.150 to 0.570 (average 0.320) for Bayesian Lasso. Using EBV as response variable, the reliabilities ranged from 0.159 to 0.580 (average 0.322) for GBLUP, from 0.157 to 0.578 (average 0.319) for BayesA* and from 0.159 to 0.582 (average 0.325) for Bayesian Lasso. In summary, Bayesian Lasso performed slightly better than the other two models, and EBV performed slightly better than DRP as response variable, with regard to prediction reliability of DGV. However, these differences were not statistically significant. Moreover, using EBV as response variable would result in problems with the scale of the resulting DGV and potential problem due to double counting.     

可靠性在农业机械中的应用

从农业的精细化和可持续性发展角度,要求农业机械应具有节能、环保、可靠、经济等特性。以精密播种机为例,研究了农业机械中的可靠性问题。通过对精密播种机作业分析,提出了排种器的耐磨性可靠度计算的干涉模型和重要零部件的疲劳累积损伤理论,并从经济性的角度考虑可靠性的优化问题,指出提高农业机械可靠性的主要措施。     

明轮驱动虾塘自主导航投饵船设计与可靠性试验

基于明轮驱动的虾塘投饵船能够适应养殖池塘复杂的环境、满足全塘抛撒的要求,可靠性是其进行推广的关键。采用滚塑工艺设计了全封闭投饵船体,利用免油脂润滑不锈钢链轮和明轮作为驱动机构,以避免对水体的污染,螺旋输送饵料装置可满足船载投饵过程中重心位置稳定的要求,通过GPS+电子罗盘的方式实现了自主导航定位和姿态控制需求。根据虾塘投饵和控制性能要求,进行投饵船直线运动和转弯运动模型的构建,采用PID航向、航速运动控制算法进行巡航路径控制,池塘测试平均速度为0.72m/s,直行和转弯最大偏航量分别为0.8m和0.5m。40d的养殖塘现场试验结果表明,自主导航投饵船在复杂路径下运行平稳,可满足虾塘饵料投喂要求,同时对强风、大雨等恶劣环境进行了可靠性测试,发现并解决了相关问题。     

复杂天然气管网系统运行期可靠性评价体系

中国天然气管道行业正朝着规模化、网络化方向发展,整个管网系统运行期的输气保障能力受到广泛关注,对其完成输送任务的可靠性进行评价显得尤为重要。为了保障大型天然气管网系统安全、高效运行与管理,对管网系统可靠性指标、系统可靠度计算、单元可靠度计算、可靠性数据及可靠性管理开展了研究。提出了包括可靠性类、维修性类以及健壮性类的3层系统可靠性评价指标体系,建立了基于管道工艺仿真的物理管网系统可靠度分布式阶梯计算模型,能够实现管网/管道/站场系统可靠度的简化、快速计算。将该计算模型在某压气站进行案例试算,按照站场系统→典型结构→基本回路→设备单元的顺序,将管网拓扑结构由上至下拆分为不同层级的可靠性框图,再利用单体设备可靠度由下至上依次计算各层级可靠度,获得该压气站在不同压缩机启停方案下的可靠度。该研究成果为今后持续开展大型天然气管网系统可靠性评价及管理奠定了基础。     

水砂射流冲蚀作用下临近燃气管道可靠性

为研究水砂射流冲蚀作用导致临近燃气管道的失效概率,分析了管材的临界应变与砂粒在管壁表面形成塑变脊的影响,推导出冲蚀磨损率预测方程。利用Fluent 软件模拟计算水管泄漏射流速度、冲蚀面积分布,并结合冲蚀磨损率预测方程构建冲蚀磨损速率方程。最后基于最小壁厚准则,建立了燃气管道失效概率的计算方法。研究结果表明:①通过临界间距判定分析,可获得不同水管内压、冲蚀时间下的临界间距;②增大水管内压、冲蚀时间、砂粒粒径,减少管道间距、管道壁厚均会导致燃气管道的失效概率增大,其中,管道间距对失效概率影响最为显著。研究结果可为失效场景定量风险评估以及水管与燃气管道并行敷设的间距设计提供参考。     

数字长度面积仪的检定和精度分析

本文对数字长度—面积仪的特点和主要性能作了概括说明;引用马列科夫判据公式对该仪器的可信程度进行了检定;通过实验分析了仪器量测图形面积的精度,确定了量测精度与图形面积大小的回归关系,用回归方程对量测不同面积的精度进行预估,并用实际量测结果进行验证;确定出该仪器量测图形面积时的容许误差;最后指出了使用该仪器时应注意的事项及改进意见。     

我院英专口语测试系统的质量分析和完善对策

援引测试学的有关理论．分析我院英语专业英语口语测试系统存在的一些关于效度、信度和反拨效应的质量问题．并就此提出相应的完善目前英专口语测试系统的对策。