基于灰色理论的畜禽粪便环境污染风险预测分析

本文运用灰色建模理论中的灰色数列预测方法,利用北京密云县10个乡镇的畜禽粪便实际负荷量和最大负荷量的确定,对未来年份的畜禽粪便负荷预警值进行预测。结果表明:该流域各乡镇未来十年所受畜禽粪便的污染威胁均呈现逐年加剧趋势,其中石城和番字牌预警值上升最快;冯家峪、大城子和新城子次之,高岭、太师屯和不老屯呈现缓慢上升态势。     

人口-耕地-粮食互动关系与区域可持续发展——以陕西省为例

人口-耕地-粮食的互动关系是表征可持续发展的重要侧面。本文以陕西省为例,分析了该省近50多年相关统计数据,认为陕西省目前的状况是:耕地人口密度大大超过其承载力;人均粮食占有量不足,粮食供给紧张;人口老龄化问题使系统的矛盾更为复杂化。依据预测理论,构建出系统相关因子模型,对该系统未来15年的动态进行了预测。结果表明,如果按照传统的经济增长模式发展下去,耕地安全、粮食安全、生态安全问题将会并发,严重制约区域的可持续发展。据此,作者提出了相应的对策与建议:从人口数量、结构及质量等多方面减轻人口问题的压力;完善耕地保护制度与提高耕地质量并行;增加农业科技投资,发展生物技术,提高粮食单产;发展阳光农业,改善农业生态环境等。     

基于重标极差分析和非周期循环分析的气候变化趋势预测——以兰州市为例

利用兰州市区及周边5个气象站的气象数据,通过重标极差分析（R/S）和非周期循环分析,计算兰州市气温、降水和城市热岛强度时间序列的Hurst指数、分维数和非周期循环的平均循环长度,分析气温、降水和城市热岛强度时间序列的变化趋势、长期记忆效应和记忆周期。结果表明：兰州市四季和年平均气温呈现上升趋势,变化趋势具有持续性特征。年均、春、夏、秋、冬季气温序列的平均循环长度分别为9 a、4 a、8 a、5 a和6 a。兰州市春、冬季降水量仍将持续递减,夏季降水持续递增;年平均和秋季降水量变化过程具有反持续性,未来的年平均和秋季降水量将出现增加的趋势,年均、春、夏、秋、冬季降水量序列的平均循环长度分别为9 a、7 a、10 a、12 a和13 a。兰州热岛强度冬季最强,夏季最弱,春秋居中;1月平均热岛强度为1.6 ℃,7月平均热岛强度为0.1 ℃。近50 a兰州市热岛强度逐渐增强,线性趋势达到0.46 ℃•(10a^)-1,未来兰州市热岛强度的变化趋势将以目前的速率持续增强。将定量描述长程依赖性的重标极差分析和非周期循环分析二者结合起来,应用于气候变化的趋势预测研究,是一种新颖、科学、可行的非线性研究方法。     

甘肃省人口预测与可持续发展研究

人口问题是一个国家或地区可持续发展的前提。人口规模是否合理,对一个国家或地区未来的经济、社会和生态环境可持续发展影响深远。本文运用马尔萨斯人口模型和Logistic增长模型,利用《甘肃年鉴》统计数据对甘肃省2005~2020年的人口发展规模做出预测,取马尔萨斯人口模型和Logistic增长模型的预测结果的平均值作为预测结果,并在预测的基础上对人口与水、耕地、矿产和能源的可持续发展进行了分析,提出了可持续发展的人口对策,为甘肃省科学地制定国民经济和社会发展战略、实现人口与资源环境的可持续发展提供参考。     

浙江淳安千岛湖茶叶批发市场发育状况调查

本文以浙江淳安千岛玉叶茶叶批发市场实地考察为基础,从市场交易规模、交易形式、经营者状况、市场辐射面、市场商品组成、市场价格形成、市场流通方式等多方面对该市场发育状况进行了分析,最后对其发展前景进行了预测。     

Linear models to predict the digestible lipid content of fish diets

Values for the digestible contents of nutrients in diets and feed ingredients are of utmost importance in nutritional strategies for fish. Prediction from dietary composition would eliminate lengthy, tedious and demanding digestibility experiments with fish. Apparent digestible lipid (DL) content [range 7.6–353.4 g kg⁻¹ dry matter (DM)] in compound diets can be predicted with high accuracy ( n  = 610; studies =127; fish species = 34; R ² = 0.9515; RMSE = 16.9504) from dietary crude lipid (CL) content (range 12.0–388.7 g kg⁻¹ DM) by the linear regression equation DL =−2.7303 + 0.9123 CL. Validation of this equation against 65 values from 15 independent studies presented R ² and mean prediction error (MPE) values of 0.9947 and 0.0671, respectively. The corresponding equation for 37 individual feed ingredients evaluated in 24 studies with 18 fish species ( n  = 180) was found to be DL = −1.5824 + 0.8654 CL ( R ² = 0.9717; RMSE = 8.3765). However, validation of the latter is currently hampered by a lack of independent values.     

Analysis on Target Genes with Mutation in microRNA of Blue-shelled Chicken and White Leghorn

The study was conducted to explore the potential different characters between Blue-shelled chicken and White leghorn.Global genome microRNA was combined the identified microRNA with complementary lab-predicted microRNA.Then the two breed chicken's SNP data got by GGRS were mapped to the microRNA and focused on SNP that deliberately located in mature-microRNA.Bioinformatics method was adopted for target prediction on microRNA which had SNPs.By further gene enrichment analysis,the study found these genes enriched in 22 GO terms,10 KEGG pathways,and 3 IPA important networks.And they enriched in traits which associated with growth,such as mTOR signaling pathways,Wnt signaling pathways,growth hormone receptor networks and insulin-like growth factor Ⅰ receptor networks.And they also enriched in some laying traits,such as oocyte meiotic signaling pathways and progesterone mature oocytes signaling pathways.The methods and the results might provide references for further studies.     

长白落叶松林下灌木生物量模型研究

以长白落叶松人工林林下灌木为研究对象,采用数学模拟的方法,以实测生物量数据为基础,构建灌木层最佳生物量预测回归模型.结果表明:林下常见灌木单株生物量模型以二次多项式及乘幂方程为最佳估算模型,以复合因子基径面积、植干体积、植冠面积及植冠投影体积为最佳模型参数;灌木层混合生物量(WT)模型以复合因子植干体积(VD)为最佳模型参数,其模型方程为WT=9.00×10-6 V2D+0.389VD+57.598(R2 =0.933).     

High Throughput Sequencing to Study the Effect of Chronic Renal Failure on the Diversity and Gene Function Prediction of Gut Microbiota in Dogs

This study aimed to investigate the effect of chronic renal failure(CRF) on the gut microbiota diversity and predict the gene function of the flora. A total of 30 2-year-old dogs were selected and randomly divided into the chronic renal failure model group (CRF, established by renal artery ligation), sham operation control group (Sham) and healthy control group (HCG). All animals were fed normally during the 56 days of test period. The serum creatinine (Scr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and urine protein / creatinine ratio (UP/C) were detected regularly during the experiment. The effects of chronic renal failure on the structure, diversity and function of gut microbiota were analyzed according to the result of bacterial 16S rDNA sequencing from fresh feces collected without contamination. The flora markers index (FMI) was constructed based on the principal component Logistic regression analysis of different microbiota in CRF group to predict the development of chronic renal failure. The results showed that: 1) The levels of Scr, BUN and UP/C in CRF group from the start of the 28th day of the experiment were significantly higher than those of HCG group and Sham group (P<0.05), and significantly higher than that of the first day of CRF group (P<0.05). 2) Compared with those before chronic renal failure (CRF group at day 0 and 28), HCG group and Sham group, the Chao 1 diversity and Shannon diversity of gut microbiota in CRF group at day 56 were significantly lower (P<0.05), while the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria significantly increased and the number of Firmicutes significantly decreased (P<0.05). 3) LEfSe analysis showed that 20 species were enriched in CRF group, mainly including Pseudomonas, Escherichia, Proteus and so on, and most of them had negative correlation with other intestinal bacteria. Functional prediction revealed that genes of those different species were mainly enriched in amino acid metabolism, sugar biosynthesis and metabolism and carbohydrate metabolism in CRF group. The area under ROC curve (AUC) of the FMI constructed with those species enriched was 0.788, which could be used as the intestinal microbial marker for CRF in dogs. In summary, chronic renal failure can reduce the diversity of intestinal microbiota, lead to the imbalance of bacterial structure and change of bacterial function. Moreover, the enriched gut microbiota in CRF group can be used as the intestinal microbial marker of CRF in dogs, and the best prediction effect can be obtained by FMI.     

新疆呼图壁河径流时间序列分析

基于呼图壁河石门水文站1956—2011年的年径流数据,采用Morlet小波分析和R/S分析方法,对新疆呼图壁河流域径流周期、变化特征和未来趋势进行分析和预测。研究结果表明:(1)通过对呼图壁河1956—2011年径流量的分析发现,径流时间序列存在5 a、10 a、18 a和28 a左右的震荡周期,18 a尺度震荡周期最强,其次是28a尺度。18 a时间尺度上的震荡在56 a研究时段内均较强,且存在4个丰水期和5个枯水期;28 a震荡周期在56 a尺度时段内相对较强,存在3个丰水期和3个枯水期,目前处于偏丰期;(2)利用R/S分析呼图壁河径流量序列,Hurst指数为0.6442,存在明显的赫斯特现象,这就意味着未来一段时间的径流量与过去具有同样的增加趋势。