Predictive models of weed population dynamics

Many of the challenges faced by weed ecologists can be met only by the capability to predict the responses of weed populations to changes in their environment or management. In spite of this, a review of papers published in Weed Research suggests that weed ecologists are remarkably reluctant to produce detailed, quantitative predictions. This may result from uncertainty in the accuracy of predictions and indeed, a variety of reasons have been put forward to suggest that the potential utility of weed models may be limited in this regard. In this study, we review the applications to which weed models have been put. Focusing on predictive population modelling, we highlight several limitations that can lead to failures of this approach and we discuss the likely prospects for weed population modelling. We make three points regarding the future of weed modelling. First, owing to prohibitive data requirements, the development of highly mechanistic models that attempt to make detailed predictions of weed population numbers is unlikely to be very successful. Second, data collection for developing weed models needs to be rethought. Weed models are most commonly compromised by a lack of spatial and temporal replication, preventing modellers from measuring parameter variability and error effectively and limiting assessments of model uncertainty. Finally, the utility of models needs to be better appreciated; models are key tools in making long range predictions of how management will affect weed populations, but, we estimate, they are used in only a small fraction of studies. Without the further development of models for weed population dynamics, our ability to predict long-term dynamics will be restricted.     

Modelling the introduction and transmission of Campylobacter in a North American chicken flock

Campylobacter is the second leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States. Although many food production animals carry Campylobacter as commensal bacteria, consumption of poultry is the main source of human infection. Previous research suggests that the biology of Campylobacter results in complete flock colonization within days. However, a recent systematic review found that the on-farm prevalence of Campylobacter varies widely, with some flocks reporting low prevalence. We hypothesized that the low prevalence of Campylobacter in some flocks may be driven by a delayed introduction of the pathogen. The objectives of this study were to (a) develop a deterministic compartmental model that represents the biology of Campylobacter, (b) identify the parameter values that best represent the natural history of the pathogen in poultry flocks and (c) examine the possibility that a delayed introduction of the pathogen is sufficient to replicate the observed low prevalence examples documented in the literature. A deterministic compartmental model was developed to examine the dynamics of Campylobacter in chicken flocks over a 56-day time period prior to movement to the abattoir. The model outcome of interest was the final population prevalence of Campylobacter at day 56. The resulting model that incorporated a high transmission rate (β = 1.04) was able to reproduce the wide range of prevalence estimates observed in the literature when pathogen introduction time is varied. Overall, we established that the on-farm transmission rate of Campylobacter in chickens is likely high and can result in complete colonization of a flock when introduced early. However, delaying the time at which the pathogen enters the flock can reduce the prevalence observed at 56 days. These results highlight the importance of enforcing strict biosecurity measures to prevent or delay the introduction of the bacteria to a flock.     

A Study Transient on Predictive Calculation Method of on Underground Ventilation Network

The authors developed a computer program of transient predictive calculation method on underground ventilation network. The program approximated a field data set of seasonal cyclic changes of air Temperature and humidity at the inlet to the sine curves, and included sensible heat conduction from rock to air current. The temperature of rock around and airway was calculated by finite difference method. The prediction method can be used to calculate the variation of flow rates, temperatures and humidities of air flow in the airways along underground network.     

流域输沙函数应用的尺度限制

阐述了在流域产沙预测模型研究中,将试验水平范围的输沙函数的运用范围扩大,产生了数据来源的不确定性或错误的原因在于:模型不完善、重要过程的省略、初始条件的缺乏、初始条件的敏感度、异质性问题、外部动力等。数据来源的不确定性在小尺度、短时间内是能够控制的。大尺度的异质性是使得输沙函数不能仅仅建立在数量化的基础上,而应是系统历史的函数。因此,大尺度的流域产沙模型必须建立在突变量的发现及其相应的动力特征基础上,而不应是试验模型按比例放大。     

Phocine distemper virus in the North and European Seas - Data and models, nature and nurture

Two outbreaks of phocine distemper have severely affected harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations in European and UK waters. The first occurred in 1988 when the causative virus was identified as a new member of the genus morbillivirus. The second outbreak in 2002 was first detected on the same Danish Island of Anholt and involved similar populations and geographical locations. However, despite the obvious similarities between the epidemics, differences in viral transmission and case mortality were found. Harbour seals are highly susceptible to infection while sympatric grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) are resistant but could be important asymptomatic carriers of the disease. Arctic phocid seals remain the most likely source of the virus and grey seals could be the link between these primary hosts and the harbour seal populations further south. Future epidemiological models should therefore consider including multiple host species. The future conservation and management of harbour seal populations vulnerable to PDV relies on the ability to accurately predict the long-term impact on population abundance and distribution. Although knowledge about the behaviour and pathogenesis of the virus has increased substantially and data on host movements and contact rates are accumulating, studies into the determinants of the host range have lagged behind. The development of more realistic epidemiological models should be combined with studies into the factors controlling species and individual susceptibility. Assessing the risk of infection to endangered but currently unexposed potential host species (such as the Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi) is essential for guiding potential conservation management options, such as vaccination     

红壤中水热耦合转化的实验和数值模拟研究

Coupled transfer of soil water and heat in closed columns of homogeneous red soil was studied under laboratory conditions.A coupled model was constructed using soil physical theory,empirical equations and experimental data to predict the coupled transfer.The results show that transport of soil water was affected by temperaature gradient,and the largest net water transport was found in the soil column with initial water content of 0.148m^3m^-3,At the same time,temperature changes with the transport of soil water was in a nonlinear shape as heat parameters wre function of water content,and the changes of temperature were positively correlated with the net amount of water transported.Numerical modelling results show that the predicted values of temperature distribution were close to the observed values,while the predicted values of water content exhibited limited deviation at both ends of the soil column due to the slight temperature changes at both ends .It WAS indicated that the model proposed here was applicable.     

Using ecological niche modelling to identify diversity hotspots for the herpetofauna of Pacific lowlands and adjacent interior valleys of Mexico

This article documents the conservation status of the herpetofauna in the Pacific lowlands and adjacent Balsas Basin and Chiapas Depression regions and the presents the results of modelling species spatial distributional patterns through GARP analysis, to identify hotspots of species richness, endemic and geographically restricted species in the study area. It also compares the distribution of these hotspots with the distribution of protected areas and intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests, the dominant vegetation type in the study area and experiencing high deforestation rates. A total of 301 reptiles and amphibian species occur in the study area accounting for a third of the Mexican herpetofauna, and recording high levels of endemism and endangerment. Hotspots of species richness and endemism were located in coastal Jalisco, a considerable portion of the Colima state, as well as scattered areas in Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. These areas should receive highest priority for protection. Unfortunately, there was a minimum correspondence when comparing the distribution of actually and proposed protected areas with hotspots identified. Fortunately, areas of high species richness, endemism and restricted species coincided with those where intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests still exists. These areas should receive high priority in future plans for seasonally tropical dry tropical forests protected areas. It is hoped that this paper will call attention to the need for establishing a network of protected areas in the study area, as has been proposed by previous studies.     

森林病害的环境影响分析

森林病害严重危害着森林资源和环境安全。采用系统工程的方法,应用解释结构模型分析了森林病害对林分、森林生态环境和人类社会环境等3个层面13个方面的环境影响。提出对策:一是以森林健康理念指导森林病害管理;二是严格检疫制度,加强动态监测;三是实施分类治理,分区施策,以减轻森林病害的环境影响。图2参15     

异龄林生长的动态分析——兼小兴安岭和牡丹江林区冷杉异龄林的生长分析

异龄林既是一个自然生态系统,又是一个复杂的森林经营系统。一个经营工作者要对异龄林进行高效率的经营,就必须掌握现实林的动态变化规律,以便有目的地制定经营措施。异龄林系统从经营角度出发,可以划分成如下三个组成单元:进界生长量、向上生长量和枯损量。上述三个单元的相互作用构成了异龄林系统的动态变化规律。本文的主要目的就是通过对上述三个生长单元的动态进行模拟,寻找出异龄林的动态变化规律,所用方法是对每个生长单元用多个数学模型进行拟合,再通过统计量分析和实际验证从中选出最理想的模型,并据此对现实异龄林的动态进行预测。证明了以曲线形式反映异龄林的动态变化远优于线性形式。所用材料取自黑龙江省小兴安岭和牡丹江林区的冷杉(Abies nephrolepis)为主的异龄针阔混交林。