FOAM, a new simple benthic degradative module for the LAMP3D model: an application to a Mediterranean fish farm

The modelling framework already introduced by Doglioli, Magaldi, Vezzulli and Tucci to predict the potential impact of a marine fish farm is improved following different directions, namely (1) real historic current-metre data are used to force the simulations, (2) settling velocity values specifically targeting Mediterranean fish species are used, and (3) a new benthic degradative module, the Finite Organic Accumulation Module, is added to the modelling framework. The Finite Organic Accumulation Module uses the output of the other functional units of the modelling framework to calculate the organic load on the seabed. The Finite Organic Accumulation Module considers the natural capability of the seafloor in absorbing part of the organic load. Different remineralization rates reflect the sediment stress level according to the work of Findlay and Watling. Organic degradation for both uneaten feed and faeces is evaluated by changing the release modality (continuous and periodical) and by varying the settling velocities. It is found that the maximum impact on the benthic community is observed either for quickly sinking uneaten feed released twice a day, or for less intense near-bottom current conditions. If both the above-mentioned scenarios coexist, a high stress level is established in the sediment. The model also suggests that the use of self-feeders in cages can reduce farm impacts significantly. These results show how the new and more complete modelling framework presented here is able to improve the objectivity in the decision-making processes and how it may be successfully used for planning and monitoring purposes.     

Variability in seedling emergence for European and North American populations of Abutilon theophrasti

Abutilon theophrasti is a weed that is spreading worldwide and that has had to adapt to different combinations of environmental conditions. Wide interpopulation variability has been reported regarding dormancy and germination. This variability, controlled by the interaction of genetic diversity and maternal effect, could hinder the adoption of Integrated Weed Management (IWM) tools. A collaborative project was conducted to compare emergence dynamics of 12 European and North American populations under diverse environmental conditions. The main aim was to assess interpopulation variability and explain this according to environmental conditions in the seed collection sites. Seeds were sown at six experimental sites, and seedling emergence was monitored. The AlertInf model was tested to evaluate its ability to predict emergence dynamics of the different populations. A wide interpopulation variability was observed for emergence percentage and dynamics with consistent trends across sites and related to different seed dormancy levels. Populations from Catalonia, Iowa and Minnesota reached higher emergence percentage with earlier and concentrated emergence flushes probably due to low dormancy level, while populations from Croatia, Serbia and Hungary, given their low average emergence percentage, presented high dormancy levels. Good predictive accuracy of AlertInf model was obtained at the different sites, confirming the possibility of adopting it across a wide range of environmental conditions. Achieving a better knowledge of interpopulation variability can allow specific control strategies to be designed, facilitating the replacement of solely herbicide‐based management with true IWM.     

消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素

为探索消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的影响因素和机制路径,本研究基于PPM理论,构建结构方程模型分析了消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素,并运用多群组分析不同消费者行为影响因素的差异性。结果表明：1）价格、信息、服务不满意构成正向影响消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的推力因素;感知有用性、搜索、消费体验感构成正向影响迁徙行为的拉力因素;程序转移成本构成负向影响迁徙行为的锚定因素。2）锚定因素负向调节推力因素对迁徙行为的作用效果。3）性别、年龄、学历水平三个人口统计特征在不同假设路径中的影响较为显著。其中女性、30岁及以下、学历水平大专以上的群体更愿意在线上渠道购买生鲜水果。结论丰富了生鲜水果领域消费者迁徙行为的研究成果,并为生鲜电商可持续发展提供了启示。     

Intensification of New Zealand beef farming systems

This study used whole-farm management, nutrient budgeting/greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and feed formulation computer tools to determine the production, environmental and financial implications of intensifying the beef production of typical New Zealand (NZ) sheep and beef farming systems. Two methods of intensification, feeding maize silage (MS) or applying nitrogen (N) fertiliser, were implemented on two farm types differing in the proportions of cultivatable land to hill land (25% vs. 75% hill). In addition, the consequences of intensification by incorporating a beef feedlot (FL) into each of the farm types were also examined.Feeding MS or applying N fertiliser substantially increased the amount of beef produced per ha. Intensifying production was also associated with increased total N leaching and GHG emissions although there were differences between the methods of intensification. Feeding MS resulted in lower environmental impacts than applying N even after taking into account the land to grow the maize for silage. Based on 2007/08 prices, typical NZ sheep and beef farms were making a financial loss and neither method of intensification increased profitability with the exception of small annual applications of N, especially to the 75% hill farm. These small annual additions of N fertiliser (<50 kg N/ha/yr applied in autumn and late winter) resulted in only small increases in annual N leaching (from 11 to 14 kg N/ha) and GHG emissions (from 3280 to 4000 kg CO₂ equivalents/ha). Limited N applications were particularly beneficial to 75% hill farms because small increases in winter carrying capacity resulted in relatively large increases in the utilisation of pasture growth during spring and summer than the 25% hill farms. Intensification by incorporating a beef feedlot reduced environmental emissions per kg of beef produced but considerably decreased profitability due to higher capital, depreciation and labour costs. The lower land-use capability farm type (75% hill) was able to intensify beef production to a proportionally greater extent than the higher land-use capability farm (25% hill) because of greater potential to increase pasture utilisation associated with a lower initial farming intensity and inherent constraints in the pattern of pasture supply.     

食源性致病菌单细胞观测与预测的研究进展

微生物在单细胞水平下的生长普遍具有随机性和变异性,同时低菌量污染食品所造成的危害风险亦不可忽视,因此食源性致病菌单细胞的生长观测及预测研究逐渐成为食品预测微生物学及食源性致病菌风险评估的研究热点。在分析现有相关文献的基础上,将目前主要的食源性致病菌单细胞生长观测研究分为间接推断和直接观测两类方法;同时对食源性致病菌单细胞生长预测的模型参数与建模过程进行概述,比较了传统预测微生物的决定模型与微生物单细胞的随机模型二者之间的区别,强调了单细胞生长模型需在随机建模的基础上开展,并通过个体建模方法进一步联系其与所在食品环境之间的关系。最后,分析了食源性致病菌单细胞生长观测与预测的现状,并展望了其未来与食品安全风险评估相结合的发展趋势。     

基于ANSYS的U29型钢可缩性支架建模及网格划分分析

利用ANSYS合理建立模型及划分网格,将直接影响计算结果的精度,也是充分发挥计算软件数值模拟能力解决实际问题的关键。通过对ANSYS模型建立和网格划分模块的系统分析,结合巷道支护经验,找出了对U29型钢可缩性支架进行模拟计算的方法。为精确计算截面比较复杂、结构比较庞大的可缩性金属支架在各种载荷作用下的结构反应奠定了基础,并指出ANSYS建模和网格划分的一些应用技巧。     

Potential chemical time bombs in the schelde estuary

The Schelde estuary is heavily polluted with many different (micro)pollutants. This results in high concentrations in the abiotic and biotic compartments of the Schelde estuary and in various effects. the present day suboxic and anoxic conditions in the upper estuary are probably responsible for the high distribution coefficients for some trace metals in the lower Schelde estuary (Western Schelde). a future reduction in discharges with a high biological oxygen demand will therefore not only result in higher oxygen concentrations, but probably also in lower distribution coefficients for trace metals in the Western Schelde. Simulations show that lower trace metal distribution coefficients will probably result in higher concentrations of dissolved (bioavailable) trace metals, even with substantially reduced discharge rates, due to the desorption of trace metals from resuspended bottom sediments.     

Genomic Prediction of Arsenic Tolerance and Grain Yield in Rice: Contribution of Trait-Specific Markers and Multi-Environment Models

Many rice-growing areas are affected by high concentrations of arsenic(As). Rice varieties that prevent As uptake and/or accumulation can mitigate As threats to human health. Genomic selection is known to facilitate rapid selection of superior genotypes for complex traits. We explored the predictive ability(PA) of genomic prediction with single-environment models, accounting or not for trait-specific markers, multi-environment models, and multi-trait and multi-environment models, using the genotypic(1600 K SNPs) and phenotypic(grain As content, grain yield and days to flowering) data of the Bengal and Assam Aus Panel. Under the base-line single-environment model, PA of up to 0.707 and 0.654 was obtained for grain yield and grain As content, respectively; the three prediction methods(Bayesian Lasso, genomic best linear unbiased prediction and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces) were considered to perform similarly, and marker selection based on linkage disequilibrium allowed to reduce the number of SNP to 17 K, without negative effect on PA of genomic predictions. Single-environment models giving distinct weight to trait-specific markers in the genomic relationship matrix outperformed the base-line models up to 32%. Multi-environment models, accounting for genotype × environment interactions, and multi-trait and multi-environment models outperformed the base-line models by up to 47% and 61%, respectively. Among the multi-trait and multi-environment models, the Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking function obtained the highest predictive ability(0.831 for grain As) with much higher efficiency for computing time. These findings pave the way for breeding for As-tolerance in the progenies of biparental crosses involving members of the Bengal and Assam Aus Panel. Genomic prediction can also be applied to breeding for other complex traits under multiple environments.     

山地电力架空线路运维质量的智能评估

山地电力架空线路大多沿山架设,穿越树竹林,周边的树竹生长缺陷引发短路故障频繁发生,造成用电客户的大量投诉,用户体验满意度下降,抢修抢险费用大幅度攀升,严重影响供电公司的信誉和售电收益.为了提升用电客户的满意度和供电公司的售电受益,采用主成分分析方法提取了山地电力架空线路通道运维质量的3个主要影响因素,它们分别是树竹生长缺陷数、缺陷的消除数和通道运维资金使用合理度.对树竹的生长规律建立一个预测模型,从而得到树竹生长缺陷数的一个预测,根据预测结果划拨架空线路所在供电所的运维资金,消除树竹生长的缺陷数,再用Logistic回归模型,构建架空线路通道运维质量智能评估模型,使供电公司对架空线路运维实现基于数据决策的模式,尽可能保证供电线路零故障运行.     

Simulation modelling of potato virus Y spread in relation to initial inoculum and vector activity

Potato virus Y(PVY) is a non-persistent virus that is transmitted by many aphid species and causes significant damage to potato production. We constructed a spatially-explicit model simulating PVY spread in a potato field and used it to investigate possible effects of transmission efficiency, initial inoculum levels, vector behavior, vector abundance, and timing of peak vector activity on PVY incidence at the end of a simulated growing season. Lower PVY incidence in planted seed resulted in lower virus infection at the end of the season. However, when populations of efficient PVY vectors were high, significant PVY spread occurred even when initial virus inoculum was low. Non-colonizing aphids were more important for PVY spread compared to colonizing aphids, particularly at high densities. An early-season peak in the numbers of noncolonizing aphids resulted in the highest number of infected plants in the end of the season, while mid-and late-season peaks caused relatively little virus spread. Our results highlight the importance of integrating different techniques to prevent the number of PVY-infected plants from exceeding economically acceptable levels instead of trying to control aphids within potato fields. Such management plans should be implemented very early in a growing season.