Phocine distemper virus in the North and European Seas - Data and models, nature and nurture

Two outbreaks of phocine distemper have severely affected harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations in European and UK waters. The first occurred in 1988 when the causative virus was identified as a new member of the genus morbillivirus. The second outbreak in 2002 was first detected on the same Danish Island of Anholt and involved similar populations and geographical locations. However, despite the obvious similarities between the epidemics, differences in viral transmission and case mortality were found. Harbour seals are highly susceptible to infection while sympatric grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) are resistant but could be important asymptomatic carriers of the disease. Arctic phocid seals remain the most likely source of the virus and grey seals could be the link between these primary hosts and the harbour seal populations further south. Future epidemiological models should therefore consider including multiple host species. The future conservation and management of harbour seal populations vulnerable to PDV relies on the ability to accurately predict the long-term impact on population abundance and distribution. Although knowledge about the behaviour and pathogenesis of the virus has increased substantially and data on host movements and contact rates are accumulating, studies into the determinants of the host range have lagged behind. The development of more realistic epidemiological models should be combined with studies into the factors controlling species and individual susceptibility. Assessing the risk of infection to endangered but currently unexposed potential host species (such as the Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi) is essential for guiding potential conservation management options, such as vaccination     

Using ecological niche modelling to identify diversity hotspots for the herpetofauna of Pacific lowlands and adjacent interior valleys of Mexico

This article documents the conservation status of the herpetofauna in the Pacific lowlands and adjacent Balsas Basin and Chiapas Depression regions and the presents the results of modelling species spatial distributional patterns through GARP analysis, to identify hotspots of species richness, endemic and geographically restricted species in the study area. It also compares the distribution of these hotspots with the distribution of protected areas and intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests, the dominant vegetation type in the study area and experiencing high deforestation rates. A total of 301 reptiles and amphibian species occur in the study area accounting for a third of the Mexican herpetofauna, and recording high levels of endemism and endangerment. Hotspots of species richness and endemism were located in coastal Jalisco, a considerable portion of the Colima state, as well as scattered areas in Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. These areas should receive highest priority for protection. Unfortunately, there was a minimum correspondence when comparing the distribution of actually and proposed protected areas with hotspots identified. Fortunately, areas of high species richness, endemism and restricted species coincided with those where intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests still exists. These areas should receive high priority in future plans for seasonally tropical dry tropical forests protected areas. It is hoped that this paper will call attention to the need for establishing a network of protected areas in the study area, as has been proposed by previous studies.     

膨化机三维参数化设计系统的研究

详细介绍了基于机械自动化设计软件Solidworks研制的膨化机三维参数化设计系统的功能结构、人机界面和关键技术的处理方法。该系统完全被封装在Solidworks的一个菜单项下,通过简单的人机交互,输入功率、转速等设计参数后,它就能自动完成整台膨化机的结构设计,包括膨化腔、带轮传动和减速箱传动的全部设计过程,具有一定的智能化,然后根据用户选择输出零件或者装配体的三维实体模型和工程图。零件自动三维造型的实现采用了以尺寸驱动为主,程序驱动为辅的编程思想,并建立相应的膨化机模板零件库。整个系统程序使用VisualC 语言开发,以动态链接库的形式嵌入Solidworks系统,实现了与Solidworks软件的无缝结合。配合Solidworks强大的三维造型、设计和装配功能,极大地提高了膨化机设计的效率、精度和质量。     

Predicting Cotton Lint Yield Maps from Aerial Photographs

It is generally accepted that aerial images of growing crops provide spatial and temporal information about crop growth conditions and may even be indicative of crop yield. The focus of this study was to develop a straightforward technique for creating predictive cotton yield maps from aerial images. A total of ten fields in southern Georgia, USA, were studied during three growing seasons. Conventional (true color) aerial photographs of the fields were acquired during the growing season in two to four week intervals. The aerial photos were then digitized and analyzed using an unsupervised classification function of image analysis software. During harvest, conventional yield maps were created for each of the fields using a cotton picker mounted yield monitor. Classified images and yield maps were compared quantitatively and qualitatively. A pixel by pixel comparison of the classified images and yield maps showed that spatial agreement between the two gradually increased in the weeks after planting, maintained spatial agreement of between 40% and 60% during weeks eight to fourteen, and then gradually declined again. The highest spatial agreement between a classified image and a yield map was 78%. The highest average agreement was 52% and occurred 9.9 weeks after planting. The visual similarity between the classified images and the yield maps were striking. In all cases, the dates with the best visual agreement occurred between eight and ten weeks after planting, and generally, during July for southern Georgia. This method offers great potential for offering cotton farmers early-season maps that predict the spatial distribution of yield. Although these maps can not provide magnitudes, they clearly show the resulting yield patterns. With inherent knowledge of past performance, farmers can use this information to allocate resources, address crop growth problems, and, perhaps, improve the profitability of their farm operation. These maps are well suited to be offered to farmers as a service by a crop consultant or a cooperative.     

ARMA模型参数的分步估计方法

提出了一种ARMA模型的线性估计方法，这种方法通过两次AR模型的估计来实现ARMA的估计。讨论了一维时间序列开环系统、闭环系统的辨识方法及定阶问题。仿真结果表明该方法具有良好的准确度和可靠性，可直接用于结构状态监测。     

基于模型预测控制的汽车底盘协调控制策略

通过电子控制系统主动干预车辆的纵向、横向和垂向动力学特性,可以提高车辆的稳定性和操纵性,进而保证车辆的安全行驶。将主动转向、主动横摆力矩控制和主动悬架结合,根据轮胎的力学特性,利用模型预测控制策略,通过轮胎力分配,实现底盘三向动力学的协调控制,并进行了仿真验证,结果表明与两向动力学协调控制相比,该控制策略可以有效提高整车的主动安全性。     

异龄林生长的动态分析——兼小兴安岭和牡丹江林区冷杉异龄林的生长分析

异龄林既是一个自然生态系统,又是一个复杂的森林经营系统。一个经营工作者要对异龄林进行高效率的经营,就必须掌握现实林的动态变化规律,以便有目的地制定经营措施。异龄林系统从经营角度出发,可以划分成如下三个组成单元:进界生长量、向上生长量和枯损量。上述三个单元的相互作用构成了异龄林系统的动态变化规律。本文的主要目的就是通过对上述三个生长单元的动态进行模拟,寻找出异龄林的动态变化规律,所用方法是对每个生长单元用多个数学模型进行拟合,再通过统计量分析和实际验证从中选出最理想的模型,并据此对现实异龄林的动态进行预测。证明了以曲线形式反映异龄林的动态变化远优于线性形式。所用材料取自黑龙江省小兴安岭和牡丹江林区的冷杉(Abies nephrolepis)为主的异龄针阔混交林。     

The effect of tillage direction on soil redistribution by mouldboard ploughing on complex slopes

Seven mouldboard ploughing experiments were conducted to systematically investigate the effect of different tillage directions on soil redistribution on hillslopes. The present study included tillage directions other than parallel to the gradient or along the contour, that is, in our experiments the slope gradient changed simultaneously in tillage and in turning direction. Using physical tracers we developed a model of the two-dimensional tracer displacement as a function of topography and tillage variables. The displacements in tillage and in turning direction were separately described as 2nd degree polynomials in both tillage and in turning directions. This model fully accounted for the directionality of tillage. Displacement in turning direction additionally depended on tillage depth, while that in tillage direction was affected by tillage speed and soil bulk density. We found a large effect of tillage directionality on soil redistribution, and tillage at 45° to the gradient turning soil upslope was the least erosive tillage direction. We obtained non-linear relationships between soil redistribution and profile curvature, instead of the linear relationships reported previously. Consequently tillage erosivity varied in tillage direction and a unique tillage transport coefficient could not be obtained for all tillage directions.