Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

Hydraulic-hydrological simulations of canal-command for irrigation water management

A modelling system that combines the hydraulic simulations of the canal and hydrological simulations of the irrigated command is introduced. It uses MIKE 11 and MIKE SHE, two well-established modelling systems, for the hydraulic and hydrological simulations respectively. In addition, it also has an irrigation scheduling module and a crop growth module. The modelling system is applied to the Mahanadi Reservoir Irrigation Scheme, a large irrigation project in Central India. The results show that presently a significant amount of water is wasted in the command during the monsoon season. It is demonstrated that the minimization of this wastage could lead to a substantial crop production in the subsequent dry season. Furthermore, the simulations illustrate the versatility of the modelling system for planning and analysing the various aspects of an irrigation project.     

湖南省节水灌溉分区与规划

将模糊聚类方法用于湖南省节水灌溉分区，建立了湖南省节水灌溉区划模型，将系统动力学的动态仿真原理用于节水灌溉发展规划，建立了节水灌溉发展规划的动态仿真模型。据此，提出了湖南省节水灌溉区划，并对各分区及全省“九五”期间节水浇灌发展作了详细规划。     

Finding niches for whole-farm design models – contradictio in terminis?

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.     

The effect of salinity on corn yield using the CERES-maize model

In most cases, when calculating soil water availability, only thewater content is considered. The effect of salinity on the wiltingpoint is neglected. The objective of this work is to use asimulation model (CERES-maize) in order to predict cornyields as a function of water salinity under severalenvironmental, agrotechnical, and plant characteristics. A modelis presented in which the wilting point is a function of the soilsalt content. At high salinity, the water content at wilting pointis higher than at low salinity, resulting in an insufficient amountof available water and, therefore, a reduced yield. The modelwas used to simulate several theoretical and experimentalsituations for forage corn and grain corn. Simulation resultsshowed that nitrogen fertilization increases the salinity thresholdvalue and the yield sensitivity (rate of yield reduction per unitof salinity). The also showed that forage corn is more sensitiveto salinity than grain corn. If the soil is not leached, a heaviersoil texture has a higher salinity threshold value. On the otherhand, if the soil is leached, the soil texture has no influence onthe salinity threshold value and the yield is less sensitive tosalinity in sandy soils. The determination coefficient (r²= 0.75) indicated that the results of the simulations were in goodagreement with the field data.     

An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description

Water and land resource competition and environmental degradation pose difficult questions for resource managers. In particular, the ensuing trade-offs between economic, environmental, and social factors and their spatiotemporal variability must be considered when implementing management policies. This paper describes an integrated modelling toolbox that has been developed for highland catchments – specifically the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. This toolbox contains models of crop growth, erosion and rainfall-runoff, as well as household decision and socioeconomic impact models. The approach described advances and complements previous approaches by: considering more complex interactions between land-use decisions and the hydrological cycle; modelling household decisions based on uncertain expectations; and assessing impacts of changes not only on flows and household income, but also on subsistence production and erosion. An example of the types of trade-offs and scenarios that can be assessed using the integrated modelling toolbox is also presented. This demonstrates that for the scenarios presented, the magnitude and direction of impacts simulated by the model is not dependent on climate. Further testing of the model is demonstrated in a companion paper. Overall, the plausibility of the model is shown.     

Using drainage systems for supplementary irrigation

The use of drainage systems for supplementary irrigation is widespread in The Netherlands. One of the operating policies is to raise the surface water level during the growing season in order to reduce drainage (water conservation) or to create subsurface irrigation. This type of operation is based on practical experience, which can be far from optimal.To obtain better founded operational water management rules a total soil water/surface water model was built. In a case study the effects of using the drainage system in a dual-purpose manner on the arable crop production were simulated with the model. Also, the operational rules for managing this type of dual-purpose drainage systems were derived.The average annual simulated increase in crop transpiration due to water conservation and water supply for subsurface irrigation are 6.0 and 5.4 mm.y^–1, respectively. This is equivalent with 520 × 10³ and 460 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for the pilot region (2 Dfl 1 US $). The corresponding investments and operational costs are 600 × 10³ Dfl and 9 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for water conservation and 3200 × 10³ Dfl and 128 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for subsurface irrigation. Hence, water conservation is economically very profitable, whereas subsurface irrigation is less attractive.Comparing the management according to the model with current practice in a water-board during 1983 and 1986 learned that benefits can increase with some 50 and 500 Dfl per ha per year, respectively.     

基于微流控和比色光谱法的水产养殖海水氨氮含量检测

为实时、准确地获取水产养殖海水中氨氮含量,以大围网养殖海水中的氨氮为研究对象,在比色光谱法基础上结合微流控技术进行靛酚蓝法比色反应,实现对溶液中氨氮含量的定量检测。建立数据处理后相应的模型,并且对比了不同光谱预处理和不同样本集划分算法对建立预测模型的影响,其中多元散色校正（MSC）后再使用小波平滑的预处理方法结合排序法划分样本集建立的偏最小二乘（PLS）回归模型效果最优,建模集校正标准差（RMSEC）和预测集校正标准差（RMSEP）分别为0.0566mg/L和0.0677mg/L,相对分析误差（RPD）为6.8932;在优化条件下测得方法的线性范围和检测限分别为0.005~1.350mg/L和0.0036mg/L。对海水、自来水和养殖水体进行加标回收实验,平均回收率在94%~109%之间,相对标准偏差在2.3%~5.8%之间。结果表明,实验建模效果良好,操作简单、方便,实验快速、可靠、无污染,表明利用比色光谱法结合微流控技术检测氨氮方法可行。     

基于模型预测控制的农机主从跟随作业控制方法

针对实际环境中由于农业机械（简称农机）作业过程的作业量以及土壤条件的变化等不确定性因素的影响,导致协同作业跟随农机的行驶工况不稳定、跟随协同作业响应慢、控制困难等问题,在综合考虑不确定性以及响应性能的基础上,提出了一种农机跟随分层控制架构,搭建农机田间作业下的纵向跟随动力学模型,并以间距保持、速度跟随、燃油经济性、加速度跟随性能为目标,进行基于模型预测控制（MPC）算法的上层控制器推导,基于前馈以及PI反馈的控制器作为下层控制,以上层控制器获得的控制加速度为目标,进行力矩（电流）跟踪,在保证抗不确定性以及干扰噪声的同时,提高跟随农机的响应能力。通过Matlab/Simulink仿真和田间试验验证,结果表明,该控制方法可以有效解决农机作业的跟随控制问题,与滑模变结构控制器相比,能够实现稳定跟随行驶,且速度误差和加速度误差更小,速度误差控制在-0.29132~0.18001m/s,加速度误差控制在-0.05678~0.05628m/s2,稳定跟随距离误差为±0.45m,具有良好的跟随效果。     

Effects of hysteresis on redistribution of soil moisture and deep percolation at continuous and pulse drip irrigation

The infiltration and redistribution of soil moisture under surface drip irrigation considering hysteresis were investigated in two soils (loamy sand and silt loam) of different texture. The effect of continuous versus intermittent application of 1, 2 and 4 l/h to the soils was evaluated in terms of wetting front advance patterns and deep percolation under the root zone. For this purpose, a cylindrical flow model incorporating hysteresis in the soil water retention characteristic curve, evaporation from the soil surface, and water extraction by roots was used. The results show that, compared with continuous irrigation, pulse irrigation slightly reduces the water losses under the root zone in both cases (with and without hysteresis). Also, at the total simulation time, in both types of irrigation, hysteresis reduces significantly the water losses under the root zone. Finally, the effect of hysteresis was found to be greater at higher discharge rate (4 l/h) and consequently at higher water content at the soil surface.