河北省玉米产量灰色理论分析与预测

为了解河北省玉米产量变化的规律,明确今后育种工作的目标和前景,利用灰色系统理论的GM（1,1）模型,依据1980-2003年河北省审定的玉米品种的区域试验产量,建立预测模型为：^X（k＋1）^（1）=324 818.583 945e^0.018524-318 652.083 945。并在生产因素保持相对稳定的条件下,据此模型对河北省玉米生产进行规划性预测,为生产的规划与决策提供科学依据。预测结果表明,在挖掘耕地资源和非耕地资源的生产潜力,提高农业资源综合生产能力的情况下,河北省的玉米产量将在2030年有可能达到15 052.6 kg/hm^2。     

种衣剂在小麦上的应用效果初报

就17%多·克·酮小麦种衣剂对幼苗生长的调控作用以及田间防治甘肃省小麦主要病害的实际应用效果进行了试验研究。盆栽试验结果表明，17%多·克·酮种衣剂安全的药种比为1:50，在此包衣比例下，不仅可提高出苗率，对植株生长无不良影响，而且能使植株根系活力显著增强，叶片叶绿素含量明显提高，生长后期抗倒伏能力增强；田间小区试验结果表明，对早期小麦条锈病的防效可达76.2%、小麦白粉病可达77.0%，对土传性小麦全蚀病的防效可达到82.1%，冬麦区小麦产量提高6.8%，春麦区小麦产量提高10.9%。     

王家厂水库洪水实时预报方法及应用研究

考虑到流域降雨时空变化和流域地形、河道特征对流域产汇流的影响，应用新安江三水源产流模型、流域分散入流非线性汇流模型以及流域洪水实时预报校正模型，对王家厂流域洪水进行模拟，取得了较为满意的计算结果。     

Effects of arrangement of surge-rootirrigation emitters on growth,yield andwater use efficiency of apple trees

Six-year old apple trees were selected for field experiment. The objective of this study was to obtain the reasonable arrangement of surge-root irrigation emitters in apple orchards. There were three factors: the buried depth H( 25,40,55 cm),the horizontal distance L( 30,40,60 cm) between the emitters and the trunk of the experimental tree,and the number of the irrigation emitters N( 1,2,4). The effect of the arrangement of surge-root irrigation emitters on the growth,yield and irrigation water use efficiency( IWUE) of apple trees were studied in Northern Shaanxi where the irrigation quota takes 60%-75% of the field water capacity. The results showed that the arrangement of emitters for surge-root irrigation had a significant effect on apple tree yield and IWUE,especially,the yield and IWUE reached 28 388. 17 kg/hm2 and 16. 83 kg/m3 in treatment T3,respectively. At the same L and N levels( T1,T2,and T3),the yield and IWUE in treatment T3 were the highest,and the yields in treatments T1 and T2 were decreased by 26.22% and 31.48%,while IWUE is reduced by14.02% and 18.12% compared with T3,respectively. At the same H and N levels( T3,T4,and T5),the yield and IWUE of apple trees were decreased with increasing L level. Especially,when L was 30 cm( T3),the yield and IWUE were the highest. The same L and H levels( T3,T6,and T7) could promote the growth of apple trees when N was 2( T3). Compared with treatment T3,it was found that the increment of new shoots was decreased by 8.07%-18.71%,and the fruit diameter was decreased by 5.41%-9.11%. Therefore,two emitters should be arranged symmetrically on both sides of an apple tree,each was buried at a 40 cm depth and 30 cm away from the trunk of the tree to effectively improve the yield and IWUE of the apple tree in mountainous areas in Northern Shaanxi.     

南方易渍农田水稻节水增产灌溉方式试验研究

针对我国南方易渍稻田土壤粘重、地下水位高、通透性差等特点，提出不同的灌水方法，并通过对大量的试验结果分析，得出了适宜的灌水方法及地下水埋深。     

春小麦高产叶龄模式的研究

本研究根据春小麦的叶龄进程，对水、肥、密等影响产量的主要因素进行优化组合，提出了旨在提高春小麦的产量及获得最佳效益的高产模式，为指导我国北方春小麦的生产提供了科学依据。     

河北省利用秸秆发电的现状研究

随着世界经济的发展,资源的短缺和环境的恶化成为各国关注的目标,同时解决这两个问题的一个有效方法是利用秸秆发电.河北省结合本地区经济发展情况和秸秆产出量与利用情况,首先在晋州市建立了秸秆发电厂.为此,阐述了秸秆发电的工作原理及其工作流程,分析了该地区建厂的可行性,进行了投资回收期和收益率的分析.最后得出了在晋州建立秸秆发电厂的可行性结论,为今后我国在各个地区建立秸秆发电厂提供了可靠的理论和数据依据.     

沼肥对水稻增产作用的研究

本文根据本所4年沼肥肥效定位试验结果,证实沼气发酵剩余物是一种缓速兼性的优质有机肥料。不仅沼液、浮渣、沉渣单独施用对水稻有较为显著的增产作用,而且沼液、浮渣、沉渣合并施用对水稻的增产作用更为显著,因此,必须纠正某些地方“弃渣用液”或“弃液用渣”的片面施用沼肥的现象,大力提倡全沼肥的合理施用。     

苧麻新品种1504的植物学和生物学特性

“1504”是从江西芦竹青的自然变异后代中选育出来的新品种。该品种在全国联合区域试验中比湖南芦竹青增产11. 4%,在省区试中与湖北细叶绿产量相当。在全国区试及省区试中,“1504”平均单纤维支数分别为2267和2236支,且多年试验证明“1504”的纤维支数均在1800支以上,是一个不可多得的高支品种。同时,“1504”还具抗炭疽病,抗旱、抗风等特点。     

临安山核桃产量的Lasso-灰色预测模型研究

为实现对山核桃(Carya cathayensis Sarg)产量的精确预测,分析了气候因素和种植规模对山核桃产量的影响,建立了Lasso回归和灰色预测组合模型,并以临安山核桃为例进行实证研究。结果表明,与Lasso-BP,Lasso-RBF以及Lasso-GRNN这3种模型的预测效果相比,Lasso-GM模型预测精度较高,平均相对误差达到6.99%,能够较好地掌握山核桃产量的变化规律。同时,预测结果也显示,到2024年临安山核桃产量处于稳步增长的态势。