近50 a中国≥10 ℃有效积温时空演变

根据全国583个气象站点近50 a（1961-2010年）日均气温资料,以ArcGIS为技术平台,采用反距离插值和Mann Kendall趋势性检验等方法,研究了我国≥10 ℃有效积温等值线中心和典型有效积温带面积的变化规律,以及≥10 ℃有效积温、起始时间和持续时间的时空分布特征。结果表明：我国≥10 ℃有效积温的时空分布在1985年前后差异性显著。≥10 ℃有效积温整体上呈上升趋势,其变化率在0~10 ℃•d•a^-1,≥10 ℃典型有效积温带整体北移显著。≥10 ℃有效积温为0~3 400 ℃•d的区域面积显著减小,而 ≥10 ℃有效积温为3 400~8 000 ℃•d的区域面积明显增加,增速达2.0×10⁴ km²•a^-1。1985年后我国≥10 ℃有效积温起始时间提前和持续时间增加的区域面积显著增加;有效积温的起始时间整体有所提前,提前幅度集中在0~4 d•(10a)^-1;有效积温持续时间均有所增加,增加梯度集中在0~6 d•(10a)^-1。     

基于部首嵌入和注意力机制的病虫害命名实体识别

为了解决农业病虫害命名实体识别过程中存在的内在语义信息缺失、局部上下文特征易被忽略和捕获长距离依赖能力不足等问题,以农业病虫害文本为研究对象,提出一种基于部首嵌入和注意力机制的农业病虫害命名实体识别模型(Chinese agricultural diseases and pests named entity recognition with joint radical embedding and self attention, RS-ADP)。首先,该模型将部首嵌入集成到字符嵌入中作为输入,用以丰富语义信息。其中,针对部首嵌入设计了3种特征提取策略,即卷积神经网络(Convolutional neural network, CNN)、双向长短时记忆网络(Bidirectional long short term memory network, BiLSTM) 和CNN-BiLSTM;其次,采用多层不同窗口尺寸的CNNs层提取不同尺度的局部上下文信息;然后,在BiLSTM提取全局序列特征的基础上,采用自注意力机制进一步增强模型提取更长距离依赖的能力;最后,采用条件随机场(Conditional random field, CRF)联合识别实体边界和划分实体类别。在包含11个类别和24715条标注样本的农业病虫害自制语料上进行了实验。结果表明,本文模型RS-ADP在该数据集上精确率、召回率和F1值分别为94.16%、94.47%和94.32%;在具体实体类别上,RS-ADP在作物、病害、虫害等易识别实体上F1值高达95.81%、97.76%和97.23%。同时,RS-ADP在草害、病原等难以识别实体上F1值仍保持86%以上。实验结果表明,本文所提模型能够有效识别农业病虫害命名实体,其识别精度优于其他模型,且具有一定的泛化性。     

窟野河洪水特性及变化趋势分析

根据窟野河流域把口站温家川站1954～1990年和2006、2008年的洪水记录,运用不同洪水发生频次比较法和流量水位关系分析法等方法,分析了该流域洪水的年际变化特征和变化趋势以及年内变化特征,得出窟野河流域的暴雨洪水年际变化大,从洪水频次变化和最大洪峰流量变化可以看出,窟野河流域80年代以前洪峰流量大,洪水发生次数较多,80年代以后洪峰流量急剧减小,2008年的最大洪峰流量仅有89.9m3/s,创历史最低。显然,最大洪峰流量自上世纪80年代初开始趋于变小;而年内洪水主要发生在7～9月,与降水量分配一致。研究区最大洪水流量的变小趋势主要受汛期降水量的减小和人类水土保持活动的影响。温家川站最大洪水的流量-水位过程线主要有逆时针环、顺时针环、单一线型和"8"字形四类单一关系。逆时针环线的出现几率最大,可能受制于高含沙水流、流域地形特性和地貌组成单元等因素。     

近55年新疆昭苏县气候变化特征及成因分析

利用昭苏县气象站1956-2010年期间的逐年、月、季平均气温和降水资料,采用线性回归、趋势分析、滑动平均等方法分析了昭苏县最近55年的气候变化特征,并运用非参数检验法(M-K法)对气温降水年变化趋势进行突变检验。结果表明:昭苏县近55年来气温一直呈上升趋势,增温率为0.319℃/10a,明显高于全国和全球;突变检验表明,1989年为增温突变点,突变后的年平均气温为3.4℃,较突变前上升了1.3℃。降水量总体呈增加趋势,21世纪以来增加现象显著;突变检验表明,降水在1969-1975年和2005年以来有增加的趋势,1969和1998为降水突变点,说明21世纪以来昭苏县气候向暖湿化趋势发展。     

我国中小型冰淇淋企业现状及发展

通过对我国中小型冰淇淋企业的特点和生产现状的分析 ,指出了其存在的问题和发展方向。     

Forecast skill for predicting distribution shifts: A retrospective experiment for marine fishes in the Eastern Bering Sea

Forecasting distribution shifts under novel environmental conditions is a major task for ecologists and conservationists. Researchers forecast distribution shifts using several tools including: predicting from an empirical relationship between a summary of distribution (population centroid) and annual time series (“annual regression,” AR); or fitting a habitat‐envelope model to historical distribution and forecasting given predictions of future environmental conditions (“habitat envelope,” HE). However, surprisingly little research has estimated forecast skill by fitting to historical data, forecasting distribution shifts and comparing forecasts with subsequent observations of distribution shifts. I demonstrate the important role of retrospective skill testing by forecasting poleward movement over 1‐, 2‐ or 3‐year periods for 20 fish and crab species in the Eastern Bering Sea and comparing forecasts with observed shifts. I specifically introduce an alternative vector‐autoregressive spatio‐temporal (VAST) forecasting model, which can include species temperature responses, and compare skill for AR, HE and VAST forecasts. Results show that the HE forecast has 30%–43% greater variance than predicting that future distribution is identical to the estimated distribution in the final year (a “persistence” forecast). Meanwhile, the AR explains 2%–6% and VAST explains 8%–25% of variance in poleward movement, and both have better performance than a persistence forecast. HE and AR both generate forecast intervals that are too narrow, while VAST models with or without temperature have appropriate width for forecast intervals. Retrospective skill testing for more regions and taxa should be used as a test bed to guide future improvements in methods for forecasting distribution shifts.     

Wax matters: absence of very‐long‐chain aldehydes from the leaf cuticular wax of the glossy11 mutant of maize compromises the prepenetration processes of Blumeria graminis

Conidial germination and differentiation, the so‐called prepenetration processes, of the barley powdery mildew fungus (Blumeria graminis f.sp. hordei) are triggered in vitro by very‐long‐chain aldehydes, minor constituents of barley leaf wax. However, until now it has not been demonstrated that these cuticle‐derived molecules also play a significant role in the initiation and promotion of the fungal prepenetration processes in vivo, on the surface of a living plant leaf. In the maize (Zea mays) wax mutant glossy11, which is completely devoid of cuticular very‐long‐chain aldehydes, germination and appressorial differentiation of B. graminis were strongly impeded. Spraying the mutant leaf surface with aldehyde‐containing wild‐type wax or pure n‐hexacosanal (C₂₆‐aldehyde) fully restored fungal prepenetration, whereas maize wild‐type leaf surfaces coated with n‐docosanoic acid exhibited reduced conidial germination rates of 23%, and only 5% of the conidia differentiated infection structures. In vitro studies were performed to further corroborate the extensive prevention of fungal germination and differentiation in response to artificial surfaces coated with aldehyde‐deficient maize wax. Because of its phenotype affecting the B. graminis prepenetration processes, the glossy11 mutation of maize may become a valuable molecular target and genetic tool that could provide a means of developing basal powdery mildew resistance in the globally important crops wheat and barley.     

2011上半年食糖市场分析

对2011上半年国内外食糖生产、供求走势进行了回顾,对糖料生产成本和食糖价格走势的成因进行了剖析,并对下半年食糖供求和价格形势进行了预测。     

Research progress and developing trends on microorganisms of Xinjiang specific environments

Microorganisms and its metabolic types are diverse in Xinjiang because of those extreme/special environments of drought, high or low temperature, saline and alkaline, oligotrophy. This article reviewed the research progress and achievements of various microbial resources (bacteria, fungi and actinomycete) in the special environments from the point of its ecology, development and application. Meanwhile, the development trend, protection and sustainable utilization of the microorganism resources were discussed.