CPUE标准化方法与模型选择的回顾与展望

 单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch Per Unit Effort, 简称CPUE)常被假设与渔业资源量成正比关系而广泛应用于渔业资源评估与管理中, 但大量研究表明, CPUE与资源量间的正比关系常因受众多因素的影响而难以成立。为能有效利用CPUE数据, 渔业工作者常使用各种统计模型对CPUE进行标准化, 以重新构建该正比关系。因此, 在渔业资源评估与管理中, CPUE标准化是一项极为重要的基础性工作。本文对CPUE标准化的基本概念、构建过程、统计模型和模型选择方法进行了全面回顾, 并强调了模型选择的不确定性, 介绍了基于模型平均的多模型推断方法。同时, 对CPUE标准化所面临的问题及处理方法进行介绍与讨论, 对其未来研究工作进行展望, 以期为CPUE标准化研究提供理论参考。

     

广东沿岸牡蛎体Cd含量及时空分布特点

根据 198 9～ 1997年广东沿岸 12个采样点近江牡蛎 (CrassostrearivularisGould)体Cd的测定数据和有关历史资料 ,分析了广东沿岸牡蛎体Cd含量与时空分布特点。所有牡蛎体样品均检出Cd ,含量为( 0 .0 8～ 7.81)× 10 - 6,总平均值为 1.92× 10 - 6。粤东与粤西沿岸除个别样品外 ,绝大部分Cd含量均远低于评价标准 ,而珠江口沿岸样品的超标率则达到 2 5%。牡蛎体Cd含量的空间分布呈珠江口 >粤西 >粤东。1989～ 1997年 ,牡蛎体Cd含量的年际变化呈双峰分布 ,次高值和最高值分别出现在 1992年和 1995年 ,其余年份虽有波动 ,但无显著差异。     

辽宁省葠窝水库水质现状与渔业性能评价

近年来,葠窝水库流域综合管理提高了水库水质状况,为了给下一步的渔业生产提供科学依据,在2008-2009年对葠窝水库6个代表性断面进行了4次采样调查和实验室分析,并采用水质综合评价方法对葠窝水库水质进行评价。检测结果表明水质状况总体有所好转,主要污染物为非离子氨和重金属铜,其他指标正常。采用流域综合水质指数法对水库总体水质状况进行评价,水库水质指数为4.33,为Ⅳ类水质;综合考虑水库理化特征、库龄和形态等,评价葠窝水库属中营养类型。通过对葠窝水库进行渔业水质分析发现,库区大部分地区符合水产养殖基本要求,建议在局部科学发展渔业生产。     

制造企业项目管理体系的工作分解与评价研究

从制造企业项目管理的三个方面即人员能力、项目管理流程和组织结构规划对制造型企业应用项目管理的方法进行初步研究.构建了适用于制造企业中的项目管理工作分解结构,并对制造企业项目管理的过程进行了绩效评价.     

农业灌溉节水潜力及回归水利用研究进展

目前,对农业灌溉节水潜力尚未形成一个统一、公认的概念,相应的评价和计算体系也没有很好地建立起来.对农业灌溉节水潜力方面的研究成果进行了全面的回顾总结,提出了存在的问题和以后研究的重点.指出不同尺度回归水重复利用的量化是合理计算真实节水潜力的关键.最后,对回归水重复利用研究计算方法进行了归纳总结,提出了考虑回归水重复利用率的灌溉节水潜力评价思路.     

A bio-economic indicators suite for the appraisal of the demersal trawl fishery in the Southern Adriatic Sea (Central Mediterranean)

The state of demersal fishery in the Southern Adriatic Sea (GFCM-GSA 18, Central Mediterranean), years 1996–2003, from a biological, social and economic point of view was analysed using 47 indicators: 22 biological indicators obtained from fishery-independent data through yearly experimental bottom trawl surveys (“Medits” Programme), and 25 socio-economic indicators estimated from fishery-dependent data, available from the monitoring system of the Italian Institute for Economic Research on Fisheries and Aquaculture (IREPA). Biological indicators were applied for “single-species” (Eledone cirrhosa, E. moschata, Illex coindetti, Merluccius merluccius, Mullus barbatus, Nephrops norvegicus, Parapenaeus longirostris, Raja clavata, Zeus faber) and for “multi-species” analysis. Economic indicators describing economic performance, productivity, costs and prices, and the overall economic sustainability of fishery were estimated. Social indicators and a general indicator summarising social sustainability were also considered. Indicators’ values were displayed using the Traffic Light system. Both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent indicators highlighted a progressive decline of the trawl fishery system in the GSA 18. This decline was mainly related to the ongoing depletion of the traditional fishery target species (mostly long-living, late-maturing species) partially replaced by the increase of traditional accessory species (generally short-living species), as well as to the reduction of productivity and increasing costs. The whole procedure was proposed as a contribution to the identification and applicability of bio-economic indicators for fishery management purposes.     

Antipredator behaviour of naïve Arctic charr young in the presence of predator odours and conspecific alarm cues

Abstract –  We investigated how Arctic charr young respond behaviourally to olfactory cues from skin-damaged conspecifics, charr-fed pikeperch, and the combination of food-deprived pikeperch and skin-damaged conspecific cues in a two-channel Y-maze fluviarium test arena. Significant antipredator responses were found to skin-damaged conspecifics in three behavioural traits, to charr-fed pikeperch in two traits and to the combination of pikeperch and skin-damaged conspecific cues in all six behaviours investigated. The combination of predator and conspecific cues significantly increased spatial avoidance and cautiousness to approach the source of scent compared with odours from charr-fed predators. The results suggest that damage-released alarm cues exist in charr, and they strengthen the antipredator responses in conspecifics. As the charr used different behaviours and levels of response in the presence of different cues, they seem to have sophisticated skills to distinguish between different odour combinations and be able to adjust their behaviour according to the current predation risk level.     

Inter-river, -annual and -seasonal variability in fecundity of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in rivers in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

Abstract  Fecundity is an integral component of the calculation of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., egg depositions in rivers. Fecundity determinations can be time consuming and prohibitively expensive in terms of application on a broad scale. Consequently, where river specific and annual data are not available, default means are used in calculations in Newfoundland and Labrador. It is important therefore to know the extent of variability among rivers, years and seasons and the potential error involved in using default values. Annual fecundity data were available for one river in Labrador and nine rivers in Newfoundland. Fecundity was determined from ovaries collected in the recreational fishery in the summer for all 10 rivers. For three of these rivers, fecundity determined from summer sampling was compared with that obtained from sampling at time of spawning in autumn. There was significant variability in fecundity with length as a covariate among rivers, years and seasons. Mean number of eggs per female decreased between 8.3% and 29.0% from summer to autumn while mean number of eggs per cm decreased from 5.0% to 28.5%. Depending on the measure of relative fecundity used (no. of eggs kg⁻¹ or no. of eggs cm⁻¹), results of simulations showed that estimates of egg deposition incorporating defaults can deviate from those obtained by applying year-specific and river-specific values by 50–75%, without adjusting for the seasonal reduction in fecundity, and by 30–50% with an adjustment. A sensitivity analysis revealed that of three parameters used in the calculation of egg deposition (size, percent female and fecundity), fecundity was the most influential.     

基于径向基网络的含缺陷管道安全系数修正

安全系数是管道完整性评价方法的重要参数之一,传统评价方法仅考虑了管道所处地区等级对其影响,未能全面评价管道的真实安全状态。提取管道相关风险因素,比较各因素间相对重要程度并建立表征不同风险状态的分值体系,根据所得风险分值对安全系数进行修正,使得修正后的安全系数能够反映含缺陷管段实际风险状态;结合径向基网络方法的自学习特点,将各风险因素作为输入,修正后的安全系数作为输出,建立基于径向基网络的管道安全系数计算模型。由模型训练得出的修正安全系数与测试样本吻合度较好,验证了模型的准确性。结果表明:修正安全系数在考虑地区等级的基础上同时引入了其他重要风险因素的影响,为管道完整性评价中的安全系数取值提供了新的思路。     

西北干旱半干旱区小麦对气候变化响应的评价指标体系*

近年来,在全球变暖的大背景下,西北也经历着同样的变暖趋势,尤其是在西北干旱区新疆、甘肃河西走廊等地的棉花种植区,气候变暖对小麦生长发育的影响研究日益增多,但如何正确、合理的评价小麦对气候变暖的响应,已成为目前十分突出的科学和实际问题。在评价的过程中,评价指标的选择和确定是重中之重。鉴于此,本文筛选了几类重要的评价指标,主要有小麦生长发育、种植结构、 地理分布、农业气象灾害、农业病虫害气象指标等,这些指标的选择为科学评价小麦对气候变化的响应奠定了一定的基础。