全球马流感发生的风险状况研究

目的开展在全球尺度上的马流行性感冒(马流感)发生状况的分析。方法基于数据挖掘方法,借鉴地理风险分析和Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计检验的方法,开展对全球马流感发生态势的分析。结果统计分析认为:(1)全球马流感近十年以来发生涉及范围和区域扩大,发病数量增多,发病频次高,发病态势严重。(2)全球马流感发生的区域特征显著,美洲和欧洲是全球马流感发病态势比较严重的区域,而亚洲相对较美欧的发病态势为弱。(3)在近十年以来,全球尺度上马流感的发生在空间和时间上保持较强的连续性和比较平稳的发展态势,但局部时段的马流感的发生呈现较大的跳跃性。结论美洲和欧洲是目前马流行性感冒发生和流行的主要区域,从该区域输入马匹等马属动物及其产品会带来一定的释放风险.     

Optimizing the use of breed types in developing country livestock production systems: a neglected research area

Developing country livestock production systems are diverse and dynamic, and include those where existing indigenous breeds are currently optimal and likely to remain so, those where non‐indigenous breed types are already in common use, and systems that are changing, such as by intensification, where the introduction of new breed types represents significant opportunities. These include opportunities to improve the livelihood of the world's poor, increase food and nutrition security and enhance environmental sustainability. At present, very little research has focused on this issue, such that significant knowledge gaps in relation to breed‐change interventions remain. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness of this issue and suggests strategic research areas to begin filling these knowledge gaps. Such strategic research would include (i) assessing the impact of differing breed types in developing country livestock productions systems, from a range of viewpoints including intrahousehold livelihood benefit, food and nutrition security at different scales, and environmental sustainability; (ii) identification of specific livestock production systems within developing countries, and the type of livestock keepers within these system, that are most likely to benefit from new breed types; and (iii) identification of new breed types as candidates for in‐situ testing within these systems, such as through the use of spatial analysis to identify similar production environments combined with community acceptance studies. Results of these studies would primarily assist stakeholders in agriculture, including both policy makers and livestock keepers, to make informed decisions on the potential use of new breed types.     

速康解毒口服液对家兔茎直黄芪中毒的疗效研究

以茎直黄芪人工饲喂2月龄实验家兔中毒,设置对照组、攻毒组、攻毒解毒治疗组,每组实验家兔4只,建立中毒及解毒病理模型,在28d、45d(中毒死亡)、49d(解毒组及空白组处死),研究实验家兔体内的病理变化规律,并对速康解毒口服液治疗效果进行评估。实验结果表明,攻毒组、攻毒解毒解毒组实验家兔在18d左右出现中毒症状,攻毒组Ⅱ号在28d中毒死亡,在第29d时对解毒组利用速康口服液解毒治疗均成活。病理学切片观察表明,攻毒组试验家兔表现为大部分脏器均出现淤血、炎症、坏死等病理变化,解毒治疗组出现轻度淤血、轻度的细胞变性。研究表明速康解毒口服液能有效提高α-甘露糖甙酶活性,解毒组试验家兔病理组织学观察结果表现轻微,证实速康解毒口服液具有较好的解毒效果。     

Can epidemiology and economics make a meaningful contribution to national animal-disease control?

The general role of veterinary epidemiology and economics to national animal-disease control throughout the world is considered for the four main groupings of animal diseases: zoonotic, food-borne, endemic and epidemic diseases. This is done by considering how veterinary epidemiology and economics has contributed to priority setting (which diseases come first?), decision-making (for a given disease, which strategy is best?), and disease control implementation (how can optimal delivery and adoption of selected interventions best be achieved?). Within each of these categories, progress made and future opportunities are discussed. In addition, a review is made of how veterinary epidemiology and economics has been institutionalised. We conclude that veterinary epidemiology and economics holds a unique role in the development of national policies and strategies for improved animal health world-wide. However, we consider that we must capitalise more on the unique comparative advantage of the partnership between veterinarians and agricultural economists. We believe that much remains to be done to improve the "institutionalisation" of veterinary epidemiology and economics, and the adoption and impact of the products of our unique partnership, particularly in countries of the developing world.     

COMPARISON OF VISUAL ANALOG AND NUMERIC SCORING SCALES FOR ASSESSING INTRAOPERATIVE MESENTERIC PORTOVENOGRAPHY

A visual analog scale and a numeric scoring scale were designed for the assessment of dynamic intraoperative mesenteric portovenography in the dog and cat. Two independent observers evaluated both scoring scales for reproducibility (differences between observers) and repeatability (within-observer differences) in the assessment of 60 trial portovenograms. Agreement (interchangeability) of both scales was evaluated by comparing the scores obtained in the assessment of 200 portovenograms obtained from 100 dogs and cats. There was no statistical difference between the two observers when scoring the same portovenogram for either the visual analog scale (p = .730, reproducibility coefficient = 17.85 units) or the numeric scoring scale (scores identical, reproducibility coefficient = 0). There was no statistical difference, for either of the observers, when the same portovenogram was assessed on two separate occasions using the visual analog scale (observer 1, p = .35, repeatability coefficient = 17.93 units; observer 2, p = .42, repeatability coefficient = 8.27 units) or the numeric scoring scale (scores given by both observers were identical, repeatability coefficient = 0 for both observers). The results of comparison between the visual analog scale and numeric scoring scale confirmed that the two scoring systems were not directly interchangeable. Although both scoring systems demonstrated good reproducibility and repeatability, the numeric scoring scale possessed a number of inherent deficiencies that suggested it was not the method of choice for the assessment of the subjective data obtained from dynamic intraoperative mesenteric portovenography.     

湖北省倒春寒发生程度评估模型

选取湖北省9个代表站历史倒春寒灾害序列资料,分析1951-2010年倒春寒过程中最大降温幅度、最低日平均气温、持续天数变化的特征,结合主成分分析法构建倒春寒评估模型,探讨湖北省倒春寒发生影响程度。结果表明：60a来,湖北3月倒春寒发生频次总体呈下降趋势,4月倒春寒频次以20世纪60、70年代最多,80、90年代明显下降,而2000-2010年又有所增加;倒春寒发生过程中,平均最大降温幅度的年代际间变化不大,但3月最大降温幅度大于4月;3、4月倒春寒过程最低日平均气温按年代比较显示,在2000-2010年有所降低,但不明显;1951-2010年,倒春寒持续天数平均为4.1d,呈不显著的下降趋势。运用评估模型对2010年4月12-15日的倒春寒过程评估表明,9个代表站中5站为中度倒春寒,4站为轻度倒春寒。     

3S技术在贵州省森林资源清查及其评价中的应用

针对目前我国森林资源清查存在的调查周期长,数据现势性差;统计总体内难以同步,数据可比性差;主观影响大,数据可靠性低等问题,在开展贵州省森林资源清查及评价工作中引进了3S技术。结果表明:林业用地的综合判读精度为93.5%,易判读地区的判对率达97%,不易判别读地区的判对率也在90%以上。本次森林资源清查共涉及林业用地面积8749639hm2,总投资约200万元,平均0.23元/hm2,外业工作历时1年,同传统的森林资源清查方法相比,取得了显著的经济效益和社会效益。     

地下水环境质量评价Fuzzy-Grey模式

基于地下水环境质量评价所具有的模糊性和灰色性特点，将模糊数学理论中的隶属函数和隶属度等概念引入灰色系统灰色局势决策中，构成地下水环境质量的Fuzzy-Grey评价模式。用该模式对地下水环境质量进行评价，结果表明，该模式具有评价信息量多、结论符合客观实际等优点。     

引江济淮工程菜子湖线有机磷农药分布特征及生态风险评价

选取引江济淮工程重要的输水线之一菜子湖线为研究区域,检测分析了12种有机磷农药(organophosphorus pesticides, OPPs)在沿线水和沉积物中的污染水平、分布特征及生态环境风险,以更好地评估引江济淮工程菜子湖线水域农药类环境激素的污染及生态风险情况。结果表明：水体中OPPs的总质量浓度为112.8～1 781.4 ng/L,主要以溴硫磷、三硫磷和灭线磷为主;沉积物中OPPs的总浓度范围为290.33～13 105.25 ng/g,主要以灭线磷、治螟磷和毒虫畏为主。相对于我国其他水域,引江济淮工程菜子湖线水和沉积物中OPPs的主要污染物类别差异较大。水体中OPPs生态风险评估结果表明,溴硫磷、三硫磷和毒虫畏在菜子湖线全域均表现出较高生态风险(RQ>1),C、D、H和K这4个站点OPPs风险较高(RQ>10 000),敌敌畏和治螟磷在大部分水域表现出中等(0.1相似文献   

An assessment of carcass counting surveys with increasing time lapse following a simulated fish kill on a small upland stream

A simulated fish kill was conducted on a small upland stream in Northern Ireland by planting out hatchery‐produced brown trout Salmo trutta L. carcasses of various size categories. Standard, post‐fish kill, assessment walkover surveys were conducted over time intervals to determine the number of carcasses visible. The sample variance between individual surveyors was generally low, with good agreement between the observed counts for the three, discrete, size fractions of fish up to 72 hr after the simulated fish kill. Despite low discharge rates, shallow water and good accessibility to the experimental stream, only 52% of the small category fish (<8 cm L_F) were recorded 4 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. Larger carcasses (>17 cm L_F) were more visible, and >90% were detected 48 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. After 96 hr, all size fractions of carcasses had reduced significantly, and the variability between replicate surveys increased markedly.