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101.
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采用灰色系统理论与国际先进的人工神经网络模拟相结合的先进技术,进行了太湖、濑湖和金鸡湖的渔业资源开发的系统动力学模型研究。认为控制捕涝强度是调空太湖针银鱼,梅鲚,白虾3个主要经济种群的关键因素,专家鉴定认为,本研究填补国内空白,居国内领先水平。 相似文献
103.
- 1. This paper reports on the dynamics of the coral community structure at A Ma Wan (AMW) and A Ye Wan (AYW) in Tung Ping Chau, Hong Kong, focusing on data collected before and after the summer typhoon seasons in 1997 to 1999. This period (1999) experienced the highest frequency of severe tropical cyclones to hit Hong Kong with one cyclone being the strongest to hit in the last 23 years (1984 to 2006).
- 2. This is part of a long‐term monitoring programme of subtropical coral communities that has been set up in AMW since May 1997 and AYW since May 1998 with nine fixed position 40 m long transects and 0.5 m × 0.5 m permanent quadrats laid at 5 m intervals along each transect. A total of 45 scleractinian coral species from 21 genera (12 families) was recorded, with 40 species in AMW and 32 species in AYW recorded at the beginning of the study.
- 3. Multidimensional scaling ordinations showed distinct spatial variations in the coral communities within and between sites. These variations were probably a result of the differential effects of the repeated cyclone impacts on the communities. Cyphastrea serailia, Goniopora lobata, Montipora peltiformis and Pavona decussata were the dominant species most strongly affected by cyclone impacts at AMW, experiencing a 6.2–16.2% loss of mean area cover during the study period. Some dominant species (e.g. P. decussata) in AYW also experienced a 6.5–14.3% loss of mean area cover within the same period.
- 4. Overall, these coral community structures appeared relatively stable and resistant to repeated physical disturbances. However, they may have low resilience towards more severe disturbances in the future. Preserving the resilience of coral communities/species in Tung Ping Chau should be one of the main goals of coral conservation strategies for the island.
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Direct ageing of fish can be a laborious and expensive task when age estimates from a large population are required, and often involves a degree of subjectivity. This study examined the application of general and generalized linear models that predict the age of fish from a range of efficiently and objectively measured covariates. The data sampled were from yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis (Sparidae) (Owen, 1853)) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata (Sillaginidae) Cuvier, 1829) populations from New South Wales, Australia. The covariates evaluated in the models were fish length, otolith weight, sex and location (the estuary from which the fish were sampled). Akaike Information Criteria were used for model selection and residual plots of the final models revealed a satisfactory fit to the observations. The best fitting model for each species included all covariates. An additional investigation considered whether general and generalized linear models that predict age from two different categories of biometric information outperform age-length keys with respect to subsequent estimates of total mortality from catch-curve analysis. The two categories of biometric information differed in the ease and cost with which the information could be collected. The first category only included fish length and location as covariates, whilst the second category also included otolith weight and sex. It was found that traditional age-length keys outperformed the predictive models that estimated age from only fish length and location, because the results from the models were prone to significant bias. However, when otolith weight and sex were added as covariates to the predictive models, some of them, including a generalized linear model with a Poisson-distributed response variable, performed similarly to the age-length key. Given that otolith weight and the sex of fish are cheaper to quantify than age from a sectioned otolith in many situations, general or generalized linear models may represent a cheaper and faster method of estimating mortality compared to age-length keys. Such models can also easily incorporate the influence of spatial, temporal and demographic variation. 相似文献
106.
We focus on the zero-catch problem of CPUE (catch per unit effort) standardization. Because the traditional CPUE model with a log-normal error structure cannot be applied in this case, three methods have often been utilized as follows:
- (1) Ad hoc method adds a small constant value to all response variables.
- (2) Catch model with a Poisson or negative-binomial (NB) error structure.
- (3) Delta-type two-step method such as the delta-normal model (after estimating the ratio of zero-catch using a logit or probit model, a model such as CPUE log-normal or Catch-Poisson is applied to CPUE without zero-data).
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金秀岩 《河北北方学院学报(自然科学版)》2007,23(2):10-12
根据随机变量相互独立的条件,推导了二元正态分布随机变量的线性函数1η=pξ1 q2ξ与2η=m1ξ n2ξ相互独立的充要条件是nqσ22 rσ12σ(np mq) mp21σ=0(其中m、n、p、q为非零实数,且np-mq≠0),并做了详细证明.在此基础上说明了随机变量1ξ 2ξ与1ξ-2ξ以及1ξcosα 2ξsinα与-1ξsinα 2ξcosα相互独立的充要条件是本文的特例. 相似文献
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为了揭示无为县降水的变化趋势和规律,服务于水资源管理、生态建设等方面,采用线性倾向性估计、MannKendall突变检测、小波分析等方法,对无为县1957—2016年降水资料进行了分析。结果表明:无为县年、夏季和冬季的降水量呈上升趋势,春季和秋季的降水量呈下降趋势;年降水日数呈下降趋势,四季降水日数与其降水量保持相同的变化趋势;年和四季的平均降水强度均呈上升趋势;年平均降水强度的上升主导了年降水量的上升趋势,春季和秋季的降水日数的下降主导了春、秋两季降水量的下降趋势,夏季和冬季的降水日数和平均降水强度的上升共同主导了夏、冬两季降水量的上升趋势;年降水量没有发生突变,春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量分别在1993年、1979年、1985年、1987年发生突变;年和四季降水量存在丰枯交替的多周期变化规律,目前均处于偏多阶段并将持续较长时间;年、春季、夏季和秋季的降水量与相应时段的平均气温存在一定的负相关关系,而冬季的降水量与其平均气温则存在一定的正相关关系。 相似文献