中国海洋经济前景预测

中国海洋经济正处于快速发展阶段,加强海洋经济的预测研究将有利于认识海洋经济发展规律、确定全国海洋经济发展目标和实现海洋开发战略目标。文章主要运用趋势外推法和灰色系统理论构建海洋经济预测模型,利用历史统计数据,预测中国海洋经济的发展趋势。     

湖泊渔业资源开发的系统动力学模型研究

采用灰色系统理论与国际先进的人工神经网络模拟相结合的先进技术，进行了太湖、濑湖和金鸡湖的渔业资源开发的系统动力学模型研究。认为控制捕涝强度是调空太湖针银鱼，梅鲚，白虾３个主要经济种群的关键因素，专家鉴定认为，本研究填补国内空白，居国内领先水平。     

Repeated physical disturbances and the stability of sub‐tropical coral communities in Hong Kong,China

• 1. This paper reports on the dynamics of the coral community structure at A Ma Wan (AMW) and A Ye Wan (AYW) in Tung Ping Chau, Hong Kong, focusing on data collected before and after the summer typhoon seasons in 1997 to 1999. This period (1999) experienced the highest frequency of severe tropical cyclones to hit Hong Kong with one cyclone being the strongest to hit in the last 23 years (1984 to 2006).
• 2. This is part of a long‐term monitoring programme of subtropical coral communities that has been set up in AMW since May 1997 and AYW since May 1998 with nine fixed position 40 m long transects and 0.5 m × 0.5 m permanent quadrats laid at 5 m intervals along each transect. A total of 45 scleractinian coral species from 21 genera (12 families) was recorded, with 40 species in AMW and 32 species in AYW recorded at the beginning of the study.
• 3. Multidimensional scaling ordinations showed distinct spatial variations in the coral communities within and between sites. These variations were probably a result of the differential effects of the repeated cyclone impacts on the communities. Cyphastrea serailia, Goniopora lobata, Montipora peltiformis and Pavona decussata were the dominant species most strongly affected by cyclone impacts at AMW, experiencing a 6.2–16.2% loss of mean area cover during the study period. Some dominant species (e.g. P. decussata) in AYW also experienced a 6.5–14.3% loss of mean area cover within the same period.
• 4. Overall, these coral community structures appeared relatively stable and resistant to repeated physical disturbances. However, they may have low resilience towards more severe disturbances in the future. Preserving the resilience of coral communities/species in Tung Ping Chau should be one of the main goals of coral conservation strategies for the island.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广东省水稻生产机械装备水平灰色预测与分析

利用广东省水稻生产主要环节机械装备保有量的历史数据,建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对2006-2020年广东省水稻生产机械装备水平进行了预测,并参考广东省水稻生产机械化作业水平值,对其预测结果进行了修正,以便能为政府主管部门制定提高水稻生产机械装备水平的政策措施提供参考依据.     

Predicting the age of fish using general and generalized linear models of biometric data: A case study of two estuarine finfish from New South Wales, Australia

Direct ageing of fish can be a laborious and expensive task when age estimates from a large population are required, and often involves a degree of subjectivity. This study examined the application of general and generalized linear models that predict the age of fish from a range of efficiently and objectively measured covariates. The data sampled were from yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis (Sparidae) (Owen, 1853)) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata (Sillaginidae) Cuvier, 1829) populations from New South Wales, Australia. The covariates evaluated in the models were fish length, otolith weight, sex and location (the estuary from which the fish were sampled). Akaike Information Criteria were used for model selection and residual plots of the final models revealed a satisfactory fit to the observations. The best fitting model for each species included all covariates. An additional investigation considered whether general and generalized linear models that predict age from two different categories of biometric information outperform age-length keys with respect to subsequent estimates of total mortality from catch-curve analysis. The two categories of biometric information differed in the ease and cost with which the information could be collected. The first category only included fish length and location as covariates, whilst the second category also included otolith weight and sex. It was found that traditional age-length keys outperformed the predictive models that estimated age from only fish length and location, because the results from the models were prone to significant bias. However, when otolith weight and sex were added as covariates to the predictive models, some of them, including a generalized linear model with a Poisson-distributed response variable, performed similarly to the age-length key. Given that otolith weight and the sex of fish are cheaper to quantify than age from a sectioned otolith in many situations, general or generalized linear models may represent a cheaper and faster method of estimating mortality compared to age-length keys. Such models can also easily incorporate the influence of spatial, temporal and demographic variation.     

Application of the Tweedie distribution to zero-catch data in CPUE analysis

We focus on the zero-catch problem of CPUE (catch per unit effort) standardization. Because the traditional CPUE model with a log-normal error structure cannot be applied in this case, three methods have often been utilized as follows:

(1) Ad hoc method adds a small constant value to all response variables.

(2) Catch model with a Poisson or negative-binomial (NB) error structure.

(3) Delta-type two-step method such as the delta-normal model (after estimating the ratio of zero-catch using a logit or probit model, a model such as CPUE log-normal or Catch-Poisson is applied to CPUE without zero-data).

However, there are some statistical problems with each of these methods.In this paper, we carried out the CPUE standardization mainly using the Tweedie distribution model based on the actual by-catch data (silky shark, Carcharhimus falciformis, in the North Pacific Ocean caught by Japanese training vessels) including many observations with zero-catch (>2/3rd) and tuna fishery data as a target (yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, in the Indian Ocean caught by Japanese commercial vessels) where the ratio of zero-catch is not so high (<1/3rd). The Tweedie model is an extension of compound Poisson model derived from the stochastic process where the weight of the counted objects (i.e., number of fish) has a gamma distribution and has an advantage of handling the zero-catch data in a unified way.We also compared four candidate models, the Catch-NB model, ad hoc method, Delta-lognormal model (delta-type two-step method) and Tweedie distribution, through CPUE analyses of actual fishery data in terms of the statistical performance. Square error and Pearson's correlation coefficient were calculated based on the observed CPUE and the corresponding predicted CPUE using the n-fold cross-validation.As a result, the differences in the trend of CPUE between years and model performance between the ad hoc method and Tweedie model were found to be not so large in the example of yellowfin tuna (target species). However, the statistical performance of Tweedie distribution is rather better than Delta-lognormal model, the Catch-NB distribution and ad hoc method in the example of silky shark (by-catch species). Standardized CPUE year trend of ad hoc method was found to be quite different from that of the Tweedie distribution and other two models. Model performance of the Tweedie distribution is good judging from the 5-fold cross-validation using the fishery data if including many zero-catch data such as by-catch species.     

应用灰色关联度分析法评价马铃薯区试品种

采用灰色关联度分析法对国家马铃薯中晚熟西北组天水试点2008年6个马铃薯品种(系)试验资料的产量、生育期、株高、商品薯率、干物质含量、淀粉含量、植株退化指数、环腐病薯率、植株晚疫病指数9个性状进行综合评价,结果表明,综合性状表现良好的品系是L 0031-17和天99-5-4,其加权关联度接近,分别为0.720和0.716,等权关联度分别为0.706和0.762。     

一类二元正态分布随机变量的线性函数相互独立的充要条件

根据随机变量相互独立的条件,推导了二元正态分布随机变量的线性函数1η=pξ1 q2ξ与2η=m1ξ n2ξ相互独立的充要条件是nqσ22 rσ12σ(np mq) mp21σ=0(其中m、n、p、q为非零实数,且np-mq≠0),并做了详细证明.在此基础上说明了随机变量1ξ 2ξ与1ξ-2ξ以及1ξcosα 2ξsinα与-1ξsinα 2ξcosα相互独立的充要条件是本文的特例.     

基于物元可拓模型的黄河兰州段突发水污染安全评价

[目的]科学评价黄河流域突发水污染安全等级,为提高黄河流域突发水污染事件应急响应能力提供参考.[方法]基于科学性、整体性、数据可获得性等原则,通过PSR模型遴选16个与黄河兰州段相关指标构建评价指标体系,并以黄河兰州段2014-2019年数据为基础,采用GRA-PCA组合确定指标权重,运用物元可拓模型得到其突发水污染安...     

近60年无为县降水变化趋势研究

为了揭示无为县降水的变化趋势和规律,服务于水资源管理、生态建设等方面,采用线性倾向性估计、MannKendall突变检测、小波分析等方法,对无为县1957—2016年降水资料进行了分析。结果表明:无为县年、夏季和冬季的降水量呈上升趋势,春季和秋季的降水量呈下降趋势;年降水日数呈下降趋势,四季降水日数与其降水量保持相同的变化趋势;年和四季的平均降水强度均呈上升趋势;年平均降水强度的上升主导了年降水量的上升趋势,春季和秋季的降水日数的下降主导了春、秋两季降水量的下降趋势,夏季和冬季的降水日数和平均降水强度的上升共同主导了夏、冬两季降水量的上升趋势;年降水量没有发生突变,春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量分别在1993年、1979年、1985年、1987年发生突变;年和四季降水量存在丰枯交替的多周期变化规律,目前均处于偏多阶段并将持续较长时间;年、春季、夏季和秋季的降水量与相应时段的平均气温存在一定的负相关关系,而冬季的降水量与其平均气温则存在一定的正相关关系。