China's role in the global forest sector: how will the US recovery and a diminished Chinese demand influence global wood markets?

Over the last decade, while the size of China's economy more than doubled, China has simultaneously become a major producer and exporter of forest products. Although China's domestic supply of wood is significantly constrained both by a limited natural supply and by conservation-oriented policies, the country is increasingly regarded as the world's “wood workshop.” Furthermore, China is the largest driver of demand for the trade in tropical logs and is becoming a significant driver of demand for trade in coniferous logs. In this paper, we describe a spatial equilibrium model adapted to study forest sector markets and policies that affect them. We present the model and the result of two alternative future scenarios. The first scenario analyzes the impact on global forest products markets of a US recovery in wood markets. The second scenario examines the effect on global forest products markets of decelerating growth in Chinese demand for wood products. Through these two scenarios, the modeling output sheds light on the role China's wood products markets have on resource supply and trade around the world. The trade model shows substantial potential changes in global prices, production, and trade activity associated with the recovery in domestic demand in the USA.     

利率市场化之真实含义

随着中国正式加入世贸组织，利率市场化改革已势在必行。之前，央行已制定出了利率市场化的大体框架并分步实施。当前流行于各类刊物的一些观点对利率市场化含义的理解尚不够准确。流行观点依据新老自由主义理论，强调市场“均衡利率”水平的重要性，忽略了利率结构问题。所谓的“均衡利率”实际上是不存在的，利率市场化改革的真实含义应当是：由中央银行决定基准利率水平，由市场决定利率结构。在银行业引入竞争机制是必要的前提。参9     

桩西联合站能量平衡分析及节能措施

针对桩西联合站生产环节中的某些运行温度不合理、生产工艺不完善、能量利用率较低等现状,建立了能量平衡分析模型,给出了相应的评价指标和计算方法.根据计算结果,对该站在能耗方面存在的问题及节能潜力进行了分析,提出了相应的节能措施.     

Methods,Principles and Problems of CGE Model''s Solving

Computable general equilibrium (CGE)model's solving is important for its reseachers . Though there are many softwares to solve the CGE model, it is very important for its reseachers to understand CGE model's solving principle. The paper introduces the methods,principles and problems of CGE model's solving.The software -MATLAB is used to solve CGE Model, and reseach the existing problem of CGE model's solving.     

以温度为主控参数的日光温室综合环境控制系统的研制与应用

针对目前日光温室综合环境调控存在的问题，在研究日光温室微生态环境变化机理的基础上，以温度为主元的基本理论，利用动态规划理论，建立了以温度为主参量的日光温室综合环境调控模式，利用8031单片微型计算机实现了对日光温室综合环境的动态优化平衡调控，经济有效地解决了日光温室环境多因素的检测调控难题，取得了良好的社会效益和可观的经济效益。     

樟子松针叶床层结构对失水过程中含水率参数的影响

以樟子松针叶床层为例,初步研究可燃物结构床层结构特征对其失水过程中时滞和平衡含水率参数(基于Nelson模型)的影响。通过对15个不同厚度、载量、密度的樟子松可燃物床层的失水过程的分析,估计这些床层的时滞和平衡含水率参数,利用这些参数进行可燃物含水率模拟的平均绝对误差和均方根误差均不超过0.01,所估计的可燃物含水率参数有效。对可燃物床层结构特征对这些参数的影响的研究表明,可燃物床层厚度和载量对时滞和平衡含水率的2个参数a、b具有有显著影响,与时滞和平衡含水率参数b正相关,与平衡含水率参数a负相关,据此建立可燃物含水率参数的预测模型。该模型高估了时滞和平衡含水率参数b,低估了平衡含水率参数a。所得结果还有一些不确定性,特别是可燃物结构特征对平衡含水率参数的影响,需要在更宽的温湿度范围内、针对其他平衡含水率模型和在失水吸水2个过程上进一步研究。     

Suitability of the ESS laboratory method to determine the equilibrium soil solution composition of agricultural soils,and suggestions for simplification of the experimental procedure

The proper selection of the background electrolyte is of special importance studying element availability and mobility in the laboratory. The determination of the background solution composition can be done with the equilibrium soil solution method ESS (Matschonat and Vogt, 1997). The ESS method is a procedure to find out a salt solution of major cations and anions that does not undergo changes in its composition when brought into contact with a specific soil sample. This composition is experimentally approximated in an iterative procedure until certain quality criteria are fulfilled. We tested if the ESS method, which was developed for forest soils, can successfully be applied also to agricultural soils. The solution composition was confirmed by an independent method. We used samples of a glasshouse and an arable loess soil. Because the ESS method is relatively time and work consuming, we tested modifications which should simplify the procedure: the use of dried and frozen samples instead of field fresh soil, an approximation according to the solution's electric conductivity only, and the modeling of cation exchange to omit iteration steps. The ESS method caused slight overestimation (10–25 %) in cation concentrations, but in general, these were well met. Individual anion concentrations, however, were not buffered in this soil and could not unequivocally be determined. We recommend to adjust the anion concentrations in the ESS procedure according to their proportions in an initial water extract. As ion concentrations are functions of the soil : solution ratio, any method based on addition of water to the soil, like the so‐called soil saturation extract (Germany: Bodensättigungsextrakt), runs a risk to seriously underestimate ion concentrations at field conditions. The ESS method may therefore be especially well suited for soils with a low water content. The use of frozen soil gave good results and the omission of iteration steps by cation exchange modeling was promising and will be explored with the aim to operationalize it in forthcoming work.     

黄花梨的动态特性试验研究

动态特性是评价水果质地和成熟程度的的一个重要指标。利用正弦曲线应力-应变动态试验测定了黄花梨的动态特性，发现在不同预加载荷、不同激振功率、不同成熟程度等条件下梨果实动态试验的弹性模量和相位角明显不同。这表明：在相同频率下，随预加载荷的增加，弹性模量值增加；在相同预载荷、激振功率和频率下，未成熟黄花梨的动态试验相位角较小、成熟黄花梨的相位角较大，未成熟黄花梨的动态试验弹性模量较大，成熟黄花梨的弹性模量较小     

风险预期的农业投入-产出均衡及对收入稳定性的影响——基于Lyaponof稳定性定理

将不同类别农业风险按照时间分为产前、产中和产后风险;并纳入比较静态农业生产利润函数,定性分析农业投入和产出均衡变化;预期产中风险增加的情况下,比较分析理性生产者的最优与均衡投入-产出的变化和差异;构建动态农业收入函数,利用Lyaponof稳定性定理,分析讨论风险对农业收入稳定的作用机制及其影响因素。得到以下结论:预期产中风险增加时,生产曲线向下"跳跃",表示产量骤减;最优投入-产出规模比均衡状态相对减小,且收入稳定性的"紧约束"条件很难实现。     

人民币汇率升值的动态可计算一般均衡分析

在动态可计算一般均衡(MCHUGE)模型的基础上,考察了人民币汇率稳步升值对中国对外开放和经济增长的影响。外贸方面,人民币升值会降低总的出口量,提高总的进口量,增加贸易赤字,但长期和短期,对不同产品的进出口影响不一;外资方面,人民币升值会降低我国的外汇储备,加大我国对外直接投资,同时外商对我国的投资会增加;宏观影响方面人民币升值将促进农业、采矿业、公共服务、建筑业、服务业的产出,但在升值初期并不利于制造业的产出,但是总就业和总资本存量的增加最终会带动GDP的增长。