The Weighted Ideal Point Method and Its Application in Forest Harvest Regulation

本文通过对理想点法进行分析，认为该法取不同的ｐ值代表决策者对不同目标的偏爱程度；但ｐ值过大模型求解比较困难，故实际应用时ｐ值取较大的值并不现实．为进一步突出决策人对不同目标的偏爱程度，作者对理想点法进行改进，引进了各目标的权重，提出了加权理想点法．与前者比较，它进一步突出了不同目标对决策结果的影响，使决策结果更符合决策者的愿望，便于在生产中实施．通过用该法对山西省千秋沟林场某经营类型进行收获调整，表明用该法进行森林收获调整，到调整期末龄级结构基本达到完全调整林状态，且可将决策者对不同目标的要求落实到合理水平上．     

一类时滞微分系统有界解的收敛性

研究了一类时滞微分系统解的渐近性态．在一些比已有文献通常附加的局部李普希兹条件更弱的条件下，证明了此系统的每个有界解趋于某平衡态．我们的结果推广了已有的一些结论．     

气候变化对中国粮食生产、消费及经济增长的影响研究

为研究气候变化对粮食生产、消费及经济增长影响,将气候变化影响粮食产量的研究结果作为一般均衡模型的政策模拟方案,通过构建的基期模拟预测研究了到2050年中国粮食生产、消费及其经济增长两个方面的内容。模拟结果显示：（1）到2050年,中国粮食生产总量在A2情景（高排放）下为629185×10³ t,在B2（中低排放）情景下为601859×10³ t。总需求在B2情景下为626609×10³ t,在B2情景下为561093×10³ t,不考虑损耗及库存,粮食供需基本平衡,供给略大于需求。（2）考虑CO₂的肥效作用,到2050年,气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济产生有利影响,实际工资、实际GDP、投资、家庭消费、出口等宏观指标相比于基期都有所上升,对主要农业部门及工业和服务业部门的产出、消费、进出口也是有利影响。而不考虑CO₂的肥效作用则会得到相反的结论。（3）在A2情景下气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济的有利影响要大于B2情景下的影响。（4）从气候变化对产出和需求影响的变化结果来看,从总体上来说,考虑CO₂的肥效作用,无论是A2还是B2情景下,都导致供给增加,进口减少,增加的供给量大于需求。因此,考虑CO₂肥效的作用,会增强供给的保障,有利于维护中国的粮食安全。而不考虑CO₂的肥效作用,无论是A2还是B2情景下,都导致供给减少,进口增加,减少的供给量大于需求的变化量,不利于维护中国的粮食安全。     

基于粮食湿热平衡模型的吉林省粮食储藏生态区划

为了达到粮食安全储藏的目的,该文以玉米为研究对象,通过粮食湿热平衡理论与模型融合了温度和相对湿度对粮食储藏的影响,计算出粮食平衡水分(equilibrium moisture content,EMC),采用聚类分析方法和GIS空间数据分析手段,划定了吉林省粮食储藏生态区域,克服了单因素划分存在的弊端,为粮食储藏安全提供可靠的科学依据。结果表明,吉林省粮食储藏区域可划分为3个区:Ⅰ区为中西部平原区,包括白城、长春、四平等地区;Ⅱ区为中东部半山区,包括吉林、辽源、梅河口、通化、白山部分地区等;Ⅲ区为东部山区,包括延边地区、长白等地区。该文分析了各区域年平均空气相对湿度、年平均温度、年平均风速、年平均降水量以及年平均日照时数的变化特点,对采用适宜粮食储藏方法提出建议。通过粮食储藏区域划分,提出了不同的生态储粮模式。该研究为加强相应的储粮措施提供参考。     

China's role in the global forest sector: how will the US recovery and a diminished Chinese demand influence global wood markets?

Over the last decade, while the size of China's economy more than doubled, China has simultaneously become a major producer and exporter of forest products. Although China's domestic supply of wood is significantly constrained both by a limited natural supply and by conservation-oriented policies, the country is increasingly regarded as the world's “wood workshop.” Furthermore, China is the largest driver of demand for the trade in tropical logs and is becoming a significant driver of demand for trade in coniferous logs. In this paper, we describe a spatial equilibrium model adapted to study forest sector markets and policies that affect them. We present the model and the result of two alternative future scenarios. The first scenario analyzes the impact on global forest products markets of a US recovery in wood markets. The second scenario examines the effect on global forest products markets of decelerating growth in Chinese demand for wood products. Through these two scenarios, the modeling output sheds light on the role China's wood products markets have on resource supply and trade around the world. The trade model shows substantial potential changes in global prices, production, and trade activity associated with the recovery in domestic demand in the USA.     

Influence of fruit load on dry matter and N-distribution in sweet pepper plants

The influence of fruit load on the leaf characteristics and on the distribution of dry matter (DM) and nitrogen (N) in sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum L., cv. Cornado) plants was investigated under Mediterranean glasshouse conditions during a winter–spring production cycle (from December till June). DM weight of all organs (roots, stems + petioles, leaves and fruits) and N content were determined throughout the growing cycle over a 3-week interval. The results showed that the cyclic fruit load pattern (production flushes) was associated with strong variations of N-leaf content on an area basis and specific leaf weight, SLW. On a whole plant scale, the value of SLW dramatically decreased (≈30%) with increasing fruit load; the reverse held true as long as the fruit dry weight remained low (<30 g pl⁻¹). The decline in SLW was coincident with a shift in distribution of DM and N in the plant, both preferentially diverted to the fruits. The time evolution of DM and N fractions in organs exhibited periodic fluctuations, with a duration close to the length of a fruit growth cycle (about 70 days, from anthesis to harvest). Linear relationships were found between the fraction of dry mass and N in fruits, and those of the other organs. The slope of these relationships was considered as an indicator of the response and sensitivity of the organ growth to an increase in fruit load. The root dry mass fraction was the most affected by increases in fruit load (slope of −0.75), while the N fraction in roots and in leaves was affected to a similar extent (slope of −0.50 and of −0.40, respectively). We conclude that, in the sweet pepper, the cyclic pattern of fruit load induces opposite cyclic patterns of dry matter and N content in the other aerial organs as well as in the roots, thereby reflecting close shoot–root coordination in the allocation of carbon and nitrogen resources among the organs. Finally, we discuss the possible implications that could derive from these findings for modelling dry matter partitioning in plants subjected to continuous fruit harvesting.     

谷物等温解吸和吸湿平衡规律的快速测量

提出了采用Ｎｏｖａｓｉｎａ水分活度仪快速测定谷物平衡相对湿度和谷物等温解吸与吸湿平衡规律的方法．本方法不仅具有测量迅速、测量范围宽的优点，而且还具有一定的通用性     

水分湿热平衡关系式在提高通风储粮效果中的指导作用

运用水分和湿热相对平衡的数学关系式来指导储藏产品通风、密闭、干燥和冷却等保护技术的应用,控制储粮的温、湿度和水分含量,并采取必要的辅助措施,以提高通风储粮效果,对预防和消除储粮发热、抑制虫霉危害、延缓品质陈化或劣变、保持储藏稳定性具有十分重要的作用．     

基于CGE模型的政策模拟系统的研究

针对目前政策模拟分析系统缺乏的问题,提出利用计算机技术将CGE模型、DSS、数据仓库、数据转换等集成在一个模拟系统中:采用Visual C .net开发模拟分析系统的人机交互界面和问题处理系统;GAMS IDE完成CGE模型生成和求解系统;数据仓库采用SQL Server 2000设计并实现,构造了政策模拟原型系统。在所设计的模拟系统上,以农业补贴政策模拟为例,通过情景分析法进行实证模拟分析。结果表明:模拟集成系统初步实现了CGE建模、模拟计算、系统维护及人机交互的功能。该模拟系统能够解决实际政策模拟问题,辅助决策者进行政策制定。