一次副高控制中局部大暴雨预报失误原因分析

[目的]研究一次副高控制中局部大暴雨预报失误的原因。[方法]从总结预报失误的原因出发,利用常规的地面观测资料、高空探测资料、T639和T213以及欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报产品资料、美国国家环境预报中心的GFS降水预报产品,对2010年8月5日发生在邵阳北部一次大暴雨过程发生前后的天气形势、物理量场进行了细致分析;利用数值分析预报产品资料,采取预报与实况对比分析方法,对这次副热带高压中大暴雨预报失误的原因进行了较全面深入的分析。[结果]预报人员对天气形势分析不够深入细致,表面上500 hPa为副高控制,但实际上700和850 hPa存在弱的切变线,并忽视了弱冷空气和东风波的影响;副高迅速减弱,系统调整过快,ECMWF预报850、700和500 hPa风场变化与实况存在较大误差,比实况偏东2个经度左右;在夏季预报中仅考虑500 hPa副高强度和位置变化,忽视了中低层和地面形势的变化,是导致这次副高中暴雨预报失败的最关键因素;数值预报产品对高度场形势变化的预报误差较大,日本FSAS降水预报、美国国家环境预报中心的GFS预报和T639、T213降水预报都偏小,T639湿度场预报值较小;在此次暴雨预报中,没有当地暴雨预报指标方法用于预报实践;在降水预报过程中只注重该站点的评分预报,对非站点预报不够重视,有些重要的物理量因素没有能仔细推敲。[结论]该研究为此类局地大暴雨的预报预警提供参考依据。     

2010年6月初广西一次极端暴雨特征分析

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料、常规观测资料、自动雨量站加密资料及卫星资料,对2010年6月初广西来宾、都安极端暴雨过程的环流背景和中尺度系统进行了分析。结果表明,此次暴雨过程前无急流建立,850 hPa2支气流在暴雨前明显加强。过程中副高北抬,利于降水系统长时间停留在桂中桂北一带。特大暴雨区位于广西θse线相对密集区及拐点上,具备了高温高湿的不稳定条件。强降水发生在云顶亮温TBB低值中心及TBB等值线密集区,且常发生在不断激发出的中β、γ云团中,小时雨量与TBB分布有较好的对应关系。     

2010年铁岭地区一次暴雨过程诊断分析

采用常规资料、多普勒雷达资料、自动站资料,对2010年8月19～22日铁岭地区出现的暴雨到大暴雨天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明,受高空槽、副热带高压后部深厚的暖湿气流和切变线共同影响,铁岭地区出现了暴雨到大暴雨天气;这次过程主要影响系统是地面气旋倒槽;700和850 hPa切变线、急流使中低层辐合加强,形成了较强的动力抬升和水汽辐合;铁岭地区处于强而宽的假相当位温锋区中,位势不稳定的建立是造成此次强降水的必要条件。     

Lithic soils in the semi-arid region of Brazil: edaphic characterization and susceptibility to erosion

Soils(Leptosols or Epileptic Regosols)with lithic contact at a depth of 50 cm occupy almost 20%of the Brazilian semi-arid region.These lithic soils are susceptible to erosion due to faster saturation of water-holding capacity during rainfall,which accelerates the beginning of runoff.However,erosion traits of lithic soils in the semi-arid region of Brazil are less studied.The aim of this study was to characterize the soil and landscape attributes in areas with Neossolos Litólicos(Entisols)in the Caatinga biome to identify region of high susceptibility to erosion.Results showed that the soils were characterized by a sandy texture,soil structure with poor development and low content of organic carbon.These attributes increase susceptibility to erosion and reduce water storage capacity,especially in the states of Cearáand Sergipe.In these states,the content of rock fragments in the soil reaches 790 g/kg.High contents of silt and fine sand,high silt/clay ratio,predominance of Leptosols and strong rainfall erosivity were observed in Piauíand northwestern Ceará.A very high degree of water erosion was observed in the states of Pernambuco and Paraíba.Despite the low degree of erosion observed in the state of Bahia,it is highly susceptible to erosion due to the predominance of very shallow soils,rugged relief and high values of rainfall erosivity.Lower vulnerability was observed in the state of Alagoas because of its more smoothed relief,greater effective soil depth,thicker A horizon of soil and lower rainfall erosivity.In general,the characteristics that intensify the susceptibility to erosion in the Caatinga biome are those soil structures with poor development or without aggregation,low contents of organic carbon,high contents of silt and fine sand,high values of silt/clay ratio and rugged relief in some regions.This study collected information contributing to a better characterization of soils with lithic contact in the semi-arid region of Brazil.In addition,regions with a higher susceptibility to erosion were identified,revealing insights that could help develop strategies for environmental risk mitigation.     

亚热带丘岗区生态系统水分平衡及农业反应

通过对自然集雨区水分动态10年定位观测研究,初步明确了我国亚热带丘岗区生态系统水资源的分布特征与水平衡状况。该区域雨水丰沛,总量可维持系统水分平衡,但其时空变化大,加之蒸发变化与之错位和土壤持蓄水分性能差等因素作用,导致系统水分盈亏现象发生,水分“高盈期”的湿害和“亏缺期”的伏旱严重制约了丘岗区农业的发展。强化工程、农艺措施调控能力,提高农业水资源管理水平,是促进我国亚热带丘岗区农业持续稳定发展的技术保障。     

亚热带平原区填闲种植冬性牧草的研究（初报）

1992～1993年在四川眉山县东部，亚热带平原区进行镇闲种植冬性牧草及其与水稻短期轮作的研究。结果表明，紫云英＋南苜蓿→水稻、饲用蚕豆+紫云英→水稻、紫云英＋饲用油菜→水稻及南苜蓿→水稻等四个处理，在获得较高词料价值（TDOM3．29～4．18t／ha，CP1．02～1．32t／ha，ME2．51～3．04×104MJ／ha）的同时，其水稻产量比对照高12．6～18．0％。混播冬性一年生禾草和豆草与水稻轮作，即意大利黑麦草＋紫云英→水稻、意大利黑麦草＋南苜蓿→水稻和意大利黑麦草＋绒毛野豌豆→水稻三个处理获得了更高的饲料价值（TDOM3．90～4．17t／ha，CP1．13～1．17t／ha，ME2．86～3．04×104MJ／ha），禾草和豆草之间产生了良好的营养互补作用，其后作水稻产量的差异不显著。前四种轮作方式适合于以生产粮食和饲养非反刍动物为主的广大农户，后三种轮作方式更适合于以饲养反刍和其他草食动物的专业户。     

Agroforestry potential in the southeastern United States: perceptions of landowners and extension professionals

The first steps in developing an agroforestry extension and training program involve compilation, synthesis, and analysis of current knowledge on existing practices. Equally important is to understand the perceptions of landowners and professionals of agroforestry as a land use option. No systematic effort has been made to assess these critical issues in the southeastern United States. Therefore, needs assessment surveys were developed following an analysis of major demographic issues that frame land use in the region and synthesis of information obtained from informal site visits and interviews with people engaged in resource and land use in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain. Surveys of extension professionals and landowners were then undertaken in the states of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia to represent the southeastern region. In addition to getting insights into the perceived benefits and concerns about agroforestry practices, the surveys indicated that the extent of alley cropping, forest farming and silvopasture practiced by landowners was less than anticipated, and that the prominence of windbreaks was overlooked by professionals. Managed riparian forest buffers or streamside management zones and windbreak technologies were the most widely used forms of agroforestry in the study area, although landowners did not recognize influence of agroforestry practices on quality or quantity of water among benefits of highest importance to them. Multistrata patio- or home gardens were also a prominent landowner-practice and acknowledged by professionals. These survey results can be useful for developing a relevant agroforestry extension and training program in the subtropical Southeast and may be of interest to agroforestry efforts in other similar settings. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Estimating evapotranspiration in semi-arid rangelands: connecting reference to actual evapotranspiration and the role of soil evaporation

In a context of water scarcity, efforts to increase landscape production should focus on improving water productivity. This requires an appreciation of the various components of evapotranspiration (ET), including soil evaporation (E_s) because the latter reflects ‘unproductive’ water loss. Both complex and simple algorithms have been developed to determine ET. In data scarce areas, developing and testing parsimonious algorithms is useful. This study sought to improve a simple single layer ET model by incorporating an E_s component. Empirical methods were also explored to predict ET from vegetation indices (VIs), leaf area index (LAI) and reference evapotranspiration (ET₀). A large aperture scintillometer and an eddy covariance (EC) system were used to validate the proposed algorithm at three sites over Grasslands and Albany Thicket biomes in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. There was good agreement between the observed and predicted ET with RMSE of 0.30–0.58 mm d^?1 when average daily observed ET was 0.43–3.24 mm. The VIs had moderate correlations with the observed data due to the significant role played by E_s (65%–84%) across the sites and stomatal conductance at the Albany Thicket site. The simple algorithms developed would make determining ET easier in data scarce regions.     

加强宣传工作 提升南亚所形象

新闻宣传工作是中国热带农业科学院南亚热带作物研究所(以下简称南亚所)建设和发展的重要工作之一。阐述了南亚所宣传工作的现状、个人新闻采写工作体会及如何创新南亚所宣传工作机制，并进一步探讨如何做好新闻宣传工作。     

亚热带森林凋落物产量及动态的研究

本文是广西森林生态定位研究工作的一部分,旨在研究、弄清不同森林凋落物的数量和质量、组成和动态及其与森林组成、树种特性、年龄结构、空间结构、生长状况及环境因子间的相互关系,为分析森林群落的生产力、研究森林群落的养分循环和制定营林措施提供理论依据。一、自然环境和样地概况研究工作在广西龙胜、岑溪、宜山三个森林生态定位站进行(表1)。研究的森林类型