气候变化下海南岛香蕉种植气候适宜性对比

为了对气候变化下海南岛香蕉种植气候适宜性进行对比,本研究统计分析了近30年（1981—2010）和过去30年（1971—2000）年海南岛18个气象观测站年平均气温、年极端最低气温、1月平均最低气温、≥10℃活动积温、年日照时数,以此为评价指标对近30年和过去30年海南岛香蕉种植气候适宜性进行了对比分析,得出了各要素及气候适宜性的空间变化图。结果表明：近30年海南全岛年平均气温平均升高0.3℃,年极端最低气温平均升高1.2℃,1月平均最低气温平均升高0.3℃,≥10℃活动积温平均增加108.2℃?d;全岛日照时数除中部地区有增加外其他地区均变现为降低,平均降低59.8 h;海南岛香蕉种植气候不适宜地区减少了6.2%,次适宜地区增加了10.2%,适宜区减少了约4%,尤以北部以及中部山地变化最为明显。研究结果可为香蕉的种植合理布局,香蕉产量和品质提高提供理论依据,为香蕉种植应对气候变化提供决策支持。适宜地区增加了10.2%,适宜区减少了约4%,尤以北部以及中部山地变化最为明显。研究结果可为香蕉的种植合理布局,香蕉产量和品质提高提供理论依据,为香蕉种植应对气候变化提供决策支持。     

温室增温和灌溉量变化对棉花产量、 生物量及水分利用效率的影响

为了解气候变化对棉花生长的影响,在2011—2012 年,通过2 个温室进行增温和灌溉量变化的试验（一个温室用红外灯管增温,另一个不增温）,每个温室设田间灌溉量的0.7 倍、0.85 倍、1 倍、1.15 倍、1.3 倍5 个灌溉水平,研究增温和灌溉量对产量、生物量及水分利用效率的影响。结果表明,棉花生长季平均温度增加1~3.5℃有利于产量的增加,生长季、花期和铃期温度升高1℃,产量分别增加200.694、225.732、109.838 kg/hm2,而蕾期温度升高1℃却会降低产量162.814 kg/hm2。生长季和蕾期增温1℃会分别降低生物量1079.2、1179.8 kg/hm2,降低产量和干物质的水分利用效率3.4215、2.8098 kg/(hm2·mm)。灌溉倍数每增加1 倍,产量和生物量分别增加734.51、2242.3 kg/hm2。但增温会增加水分的消耗量,这对于处于干旱区的新疆来说是不利的。随着气候变暖,棉花耗水增大,产量增加。     

本溪山区旱柳物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

为了探讨本溪山区气候变化对木本植物物候的影响,利用1980—2012 年国家农业气象本溪县观测站旱柳物候期资料和气温、降水、日照等资料,运用线性倾向率和趋势系数等分析方法,研究了本溪山区旱柳物候期对气候变化的响应。结果表明：在近33 年本溪山区气温呈明显的升温趋势变化,升温速率为0.45℃/10 a,降水和日照呈波动性减小趋势变化,降水量波动幅度较大,最大降雨量与最小降雨量差异大。旱柳芽开放期呈明显的延后趋势变化,其线性倾向率为2.4 d/10 a;开花始期呈拖后趋势变化,线性倾向率为0.35 d/10 a;旱柳变色始期和落叶始期均呈显著的延后趋势,其线性倾向率分别为7.27 d/10 a和5.52 d/10 a。温度对旱柳物候影响最为显著,降水和日照对物候期的变化也有一定的影响。     

榆社县近50年气温变化特征分析

为了掌握榆社县近50 年气温变化规律,为生态农业扶贫开发项目开展提供理论依据,利用1961—2010 年榆社县气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、相关系数分析、滑动平均,Mann-Kendall 检验等方法,对气温变化的特征及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：近50 年来榆社县年平均气温呈升温趋势,气温倾向率0.08℃/10a。年平均最高气温、冬季平均气温、年极端最高气温、春季平均气温年际变化均呈升温趋势,气温倾向率分别为0.30℃/10a、0.28℃/10a、0.21℃/10a 和0.12℃/10a;而年极端最低气温、夏季平均气温、年平均最低气温、秋季平均气温却呈降温趋势,气温倾向率分别为-0.30℃/10a、-0.04℃/10a、-0.03℃/10a 和-0.02℃/10a。升温趋势显著时段主要出现在20 世纪90 年代,而降温最明显时段出现在20 世纪80 年代;年平均日较差变化呈增高趋势,90 年代达到最大值。榆社县气候变暖主要是白天增温明显,尤其体现在冬、春季,气温在20世纪80年代中后期至90年代后期有较明显的暖突变。     

典型区域土地生态状况精细评估

对土地生态状况进行精细评估可为城乡规划和土地可持续利用提供科学依据。本文以焦作市山阳区为研究对象,基于ArcGIS软件,对山阳区43个行政村单元进行了土地生态状况评估。以土地生态状况自然基础性指标、结构性指标、土地污染退化状况、生态建设与保护综合效应指标及区域性指标5个方面为准则层,选取了10个评估指标、27个元指标构建了山阳区的土地生态状况评估指标体系。采用极差法标准化,熵值法定权重,计算生态状况的综合评估分值,并根据分值大小将山阳区划分为5个区域。结果显示：山阳区生态状况优和良的土地占了总面积的40.5%,主要分布在北部海拔较低,地势平坦的区域;生态状况较差的地区位于北部海拔相对较高的山地丘陵地带,有煤矿开采活动,污染退化现象明显。     

山西暴雨的天气气候学分析

利用1957—2009年NCEP常规气象资料,从暴雨时空分布特征等角度,结合天气动力学、统计学等方法,对山西暴雨进行天气气候的分析研究。结果表明：（1）从气候学上讲,中条山东部是山西暴雨的极值中心,降水极值中心强度到达94 mm。发生暴雨频次最多的地方主要位于太行山南麓延伸至中条山东部的晋东南和晋南地区。另一个出现暴雨次数比较多的地区位于五台山附近,显示出山西特殊地形对山西暴雨的增幅作用。（2）50多年来,山西暴雨次数有着显著的年代际变化特征,1957—1982年,山西暴雨处于发生次数较多阶段,1983—2002年,山西暴雨处于次数较少阶段;2003年以后,山西又处于暴雨明显增加阶段。（3）形成山西暴雨的暖湿气团可能是南亚季风向北伸进的结果,暴雨发生日,320 K等墒面上,在山西附近形成一个高位涡中心,其和来自低纬度的暖湿空气,在山西附近相交绥,导致山西暴雨的产生。     

Influence of Climate and Socio-Economic Factors on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Soil Organic Matter: A Case Study of Central Heilongjiang Province,China

For the scientific management of farmland, it is significant to understand the spatio-temporal variability of soil organic matter and to study the influences of related factors. Using geostatistical theory, GIS spatial analysis, trend analysis and a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, this study analyzed the response of soil organic matter to climate and socio-economic factors in central Heilongjiang Province during the past 25 years. Second soil survey data of China for 1979–1985, 2005 field sampling data, climate observations and socio-economic data for 1980–2005 were analyzed. First, soil organic matter in 2005 was spatially interpolated using the Co-Kriging method along with auxiliary data sets of soil type and pH. The spatio-temporal variability was then studied by comparison with the 1980s second soil census data. Next, the temporal trends in climate and socio-economic factors over the past 25 years were investigated. Finally, we examined the variation of the response of soil organic matter to climate and socio-economic factors using the GWR model spatially and temporally. The model showed that 53.82% area of the organic matter content remained constant and 29.39% has decreased during the past 25 years. The impact of precipitation on organic matter content is mainly negative, with increasing absolute values of the regression coefficient. The absolute value of regression coefficient of annual average temperature has decreased, and more areas are now under its negative effects. In addition, the areas of positive regression coefficient of annual sunshine hours have northward shifted, with the increasing absolute value of positive coefficient and decreasing absolute value of negative coefficient. The areas of positive regression coefficient of mechanized farming as a socio-economic factor have westward shifted, with the increasing absolute value of negative coefficient and decreasing absolute value of positive coefficient. The area of regions with the positive regression coefficient of irrigation has expanded. The regions with positive regression coefficient of fertilizer use have shrinked. The positive regression coefficient of mulch film consumption has significantly increased. The regression coefficient of pesticide consumption was mainly positive in the west of the study area, while it was negative to the east. Generally, GWR model is capable to investigate the influence of both climatic and socio-economic factors, avoided the insufficiency of other research based on the single perspective of climatic or socio-economic factors. Therefore, we can conclude that GWR model could provide methodological support for global change research and serve as basic reference for cultivated land quality improvement and agricultural decision making.     

Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County,Northeast China

Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change) associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data (presents real-world climate change) were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County (1980s–2010s), Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature (0.6°C per decade) and decreased annual precipitation (46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets) were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was confirmed by 70% of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change: Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a significant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice: More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers' agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region.     

Leakage of forest harvest changes in a small open economy: case Norway

The effect of changes in roundwood harvests in Norway on the harvests in rest of the world is examined using a global forest sector model. About 60–100% of the harvest change in Norway is offset by an opposite change in the rest of the world. Such leakage rates vary over time, wood category, background scenario, and the size of the harvest change. Asymmetries between the effects of increasing and decreasing the harvests also exist. Hence, the magnitude of leakage rate is case specific, though considerable. Under tightening wood supply there is less need/room to respond to harvest increase/decrease in Norway with incremental/reduced harvests elsewhere. When the use of global forest resources intensifies with increasing wood demand in the future, leakage rates can be smaller than today. It is important to account for harvest leakage in order to avoid overestimating the climate benefits of policies that decrease or increase roundwood harvests. For instance, for full carbon sequestration benefits of increasing harvests for harvested wood products, creating fresh additional demand for these products should be prioritized. Else the origin of raw material and the place of production for these products may change instead of their stock.     

气候变化及人为活动驱动下的西南喀斯特生态水文研究评述

喀斯特地区地表关键带结构十分复杂,土层浅薄且持水能力弱,地下裂隙多而渗透速率快,导致地表水分亏缺频繁、生态脆弱、污染物扩散快速等一系列生态环境问题。喀斯特地区的合理开发利用和生态环境保护,对深刻理解其生态水文过程有着极大的诉求。迄今为止,喀斯特生态水文学已经获得了重要进展,极大地提升了人们对植被水分来源与耗散机理、坡面水文快速过程、环境变化的生态水文效应等方面的认识,并构建了多种模型,为喀斯特地区生态治理、环境保护和水资源合理利用等提供了理论依据和技术支撑。但受限于喀斯特地表结构的复杂性,目前所获得的结论也存在很多不足和不确定性。本文从喀斯特生态水文过程与机理、喀斯特流域生态水文和喀斯特生态水文模型研究三个方面概述了喀斯特生态水文研究进展,介绍了课题组在相关方面的主要成果,并提出了未来研究中应进一步重视的问题。