关中葡萄二黄斑叶蝉种群动态和空间分布型研究

在西北农林科技大学园艺试验站选择历年葡萄二黄斑叶蝉发生较严重的葡萄品种为调查对象,于2013年4~10月进行系统调查,并采用Taylor幂法则、Iwao回归分析法和Lloyd平均聚块性指标对葡萄二黄斑叶蝉种群聚集扩散情况进行测定分析,研究了其种群空间分布型。结果表明,葡萄二黄斑叶蝉在陕西关中地区1年发生3代,若虫1年出现3个高峰。运用3种空间分布测定指标对葡萄二黄斑叶蝉空间分布型的测定结果均一致,葡萄二黄斑叶蝉在关中地区葡萄园呈聚集分布,个体之间相互吸引,聚集强度随种群密度升高而增加,且种群密度随时序动态变化呈现出扩散-聚集-扩散-聚集的规律。     

县域人口集聚度与经济集聚度的面板数据分析——基于北部湾城镇群的实证研究

基于北部湾城镇群22个县域单元,利用面板数据模型,实证分析了人口集聚度与经济集聚度时空变化及相互关联情况。结果表明,人口集聚度与经济集聚度存在双向因果关系;南宁市、北海市、防城港市、玉林市及北部湾整体的县域人口集聚度与经济集聚度之间相互呈正效应,而钦州市、崇左市分别相互呈负效应、弱负效应。未来,北部湾城镇群应实施"大县城"战略,大力发展县域经济,加强县域尤其是县城的人口集聚与经济集聚,提高经济发展效率,优化城镇结构,走出一条富有自身特色的新型城镇化道路。     

玉米秸秆还田与氮肥配施对冬小麦群体动态及产量的影响

以新麦26为试材,采用3年定点大田试验研究玉米秸秆还田与氮肥、秸秆腐蚀剂及精制鸡粪配施对冬小麦群体、产量结构及产量的影响。结果表明:在玉米秸秆全部还田情况下,冬小麦群体有随着施氮量的增加而增多的趋势;千粒重变化不明显;穗粒数和产量的变化相一致,随着施氮量的增加而提高,但在666.7m2施纯N13 kg+精制鸡粪100 kg和施纯N13 kg+腐蚀剂150 g处理情况下,其产量和千粒重与分别单施纯N 16、19 kg的处理相近。综合考虑生产成本,试验地区666.7m2宜施纯N 13 kg+腐蚀剂150 g。     

Triage for conserving populations of threatened species: The case of woodland caribou in Alberta

Prioritization of conservation efforts for threatened and endangered species has tended to focus on factors measuring the risk of extirpation rather than the probability of success and cost. Approaches such as triage are advisable when three main conditions are present: insufficient capacity exists to adequately treat all patients, patients are in a critical state and cannot wait until additional capacity becomes available, and patients differ in their likely outcome and/or the amount of treatment they require. The objective of our study was to document the status of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds in Alberta, Canada, with respect to these three conditions and to determine whether a triage approach might be warranted. To do this we modeled three types of recovery effort - protection, habitat restoration, and wolf control - and estimated the opportunity cost of recovery for each herd. We also assessed herds with respect to a suite of factors linked to long-term viability. We found that all but three herds will decline to critical levels (<10 animals) within approximately 30 years if current population trends continue. The opportunity cost of protecting all ranges by excluding new development, in terms of the net present value of petroleum and forestry resources, was estimated to be in excess of 100 billion dollars (assuming no substitution of activity outside of the ranges). A habitat restoration program applied to all ranges would cost several hundred million dollars, and a provincial-scale wolf control program would cost tens of millions of dollars. Recovery costs among herds varied by an order of magnitude. Herds also varied substantially in terms of their potential viability. These findings suggest that woodland caribou in Alberta meet the conditions whereby triage should be considered as an appropriate conservation strategy.     

Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions. Such predictions are difficult to obtain from historic data directly because past and predicted environmental conditions differ substantially. Here, we explore how models can be used to predict polar bear population responses under climate change. We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment. Such models can often be developed, parameterized, and tested under current environmental conditions. Model predictions for reproduction and survival under future conditions could then be input into demographic projection models to improve abundance predictions under climate change. We illustrate the approach using two examples. First, using an individual-based dynamic energy budget model, we estimate that 3-6% of adult males in Western Hudson Bay would die of starvation before the end of a 120 day summer fasting period but 28-48% would die if climate warming increases the fasting period to 180 days. Expected changes in survival are non-linear (sigmoid) as a function of fasting period length. Second, we use an encounter rate model to predict changes in female mating probability under sea ice area declines and declines in mate-searching efficiency due to habitat fragmentation. The model predicts that mating success will decline non-linearly if searching efficiency declines faster than habitat area, and increase non-linearly otherwise. Specifically for the Lancaster Sound population, we predict that female mating success would decline from 99% to 91% if searching efficiency declined twice as fast as sea ice area, and to 72% if searching efficiency declined four times as fast as area. Sea ice is a complex and dynamic habitat that is rapidly changing. Failure to incorporate climate change effects into population projections can result in flawed conservation assessments and management decisions.     

The use of historical collections to estimate population trends: A case study using Swedish longhorn beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

Long term data to estimate population trends among species are generally lacking. However, Natural History Collections (NHCs) can provide such information, but may suffer from biases due to varying sampling effort. To analyze population trends and range-abundance dynamics of Swedish longhorn beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), we used collections of 108 species stretching over 100 years. We controlled for varying sampling effort by using the total number of database records as a reference for non-red-listed species. Because the general frequency of red-listed species increased over time, a separate estimate of sampling effort was used for that group. We observed large interspecific variation in population changes, from declines of 60% to several hundred percent increases. Most species showed stable or increasing ranges, whereas few seemed to decline in range. Among increasing species, rare species seemed to expand their range more than common species did, but this pattern was not observed in declining species. Historically, rare species did not seem to be at larger risk of local extinction, and population declines were mostly due to lower population density and not loss of sub-populations. We also evaluated the species’ declines under IUCN red-list criterion A, and four currently not red-listed species meet the suggested threshold for Near Threatened (NT). The results also suggested that species’ declines may be overlooked if estimated only from changes in species range.     

Range fidelity: The missing link between caribou decline and habitat alteration?

Conservation of forest-dwelling caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) is of great concern across most of its range. Anthropogenic disturbances, primarily logging activities, have been identified as the most important cause of caribou decline, although the mechanisms underlying this decline are not fully understood. Caribou commonly display fidelity to calving sites or seasonal ranges, but the potential role of this life-history trait has been largely overlooked in research and conservation planning. This is surprising because sites and ranges with high inter-annual use should have high conservation value. We investigated the relationship between habitat disturbances and home-range fidelity of forest-dwelling caribou across three study sites in Québec, Canada, using a broad range of natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Between 2004 and 2007, we tracked 47 adult female caribou using GPS collars. Home-range fidelity varied between seasons, being higher during calving and summer, and lower during winter. Caribou reduced fidelity following natural and anthropogenic disturbances, the latter having a stronger negative influence. Anthropogenic disturbances had a strong negative impact on home-range fidelity during annual, summer and winter periods, whereas natural disturbance was the dominant factor during calving. Despite this negative influence on fidelity, caribou tended to demonstrate range fidelity even in study sites most impacted by human activities. Habitat disturbances could produce two possible outcomes for caribou conservation: (1) a trend for females to reduce home-range fidelity which could translate into lower calf and female caribou survival through reduced familiarity with food distribution, escape cover and predation risk and (2) a global tendency to maintain range fidelity even in a drastically modified landscape which could turn into an ecological trap, particularly for calves when predation risk increases due to increased black bear density in early successional forests. Taking range fidelity behavior into consideration during forest management planning could direct conservation efforts toward the best available sites and therefore facilitate caribou persistence in managed landscapes.     

Population isolation exacerbates conservation genetic concerns in the endangered Amargosa vole, Microtus californicus scirpensis

The ability of a taxon to maintain adaptive flexibility in a stochastic environment is a function of the genetic diversity within the population. In small, fragmented populations, genetic variation can become depleted more quickly than in larger, more contiguous populations. Characterizing the patterns of genetic variation and differentiation associated with these processes is an important step in establishing conservation priorities. The Amargosa vole, Microtus californicus scirpensis, is an endangered rodent persisting in the small, fragmented marsh complex surrounding the Amargosa River near Death Valley, California. This naturally patchy system has existed since the end of the Pleistocene (approximately 10,000 y.b.p.), however, fragmentation has been exacerbated by recent anthropogenic changes. For this study, I used five nuclear microsatellite loci and the cytochrome-b region of the mitochondrial genome to quantify levels of genetic variation, population substructure, and patterns of gene flow in M.c. scirpensis. These data were compared to a broadly distributed subspecies, Microtus californicus sanctidiegi. Overall levels of nuclear genetic variation were significantly lower in M.c. scirpensis, whether measured in terms of diversity or heterozygosity, compared to more broadly distributed conspecifics. Moreover, only two haplotypes were recovered from the mitochondrial data with over 90% of the observed haplotypes being identical. Despite low genetic diversity, significant genetic subdivision among M.c. scirpensis populations was detected using both pairwise F_ST and Bayesian clustering methods. Furthermore, isolation by distance analyses reveal that an important landscape feature, ephemeral tributaries, is critical for dispersal among population clusters. Recommendations for conservation management are presented.     

Population demography and fecundity do not decline with habitat fragmentation in the rainforest tree Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae)

Habitat fragmentation is often associated with reduced levels of fitness and local extinction of plant species, and consequently poses a major threat to the persistence of species worldwide. The majority of demography-based fragmentation studies to date have focussed primarily on fragmentation impacts on individual plant fecundity. Here we investigate the impact of habitat fragmentation on the demography (plant height classes and density) and key population dynamic processes for the rainforest tree species Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae). Raceme and fruit production and seedling emergence across fragmented sites exceeded that in more intact sites with no apparent difference in short-term mortality rates. Fecundity of flowering trees did not appear to be affected by fragmentation. Instead, overall reproductive output in fragmented sites was enhanced relative to undisturbed sites due to a higher proportion of reproductively active individuals. The probability of flowering and fruiting was negatively correlated with the projected foliage cover (PFC) surrounding individual trees, and average PFC was significantly lower in small and medium fragments, suggesting light availability as a potential contributor to the trends observed here.This study demonstrates that the short-term effects of habitat fragmentation on population viability may not necessarily be detrimental for some species, and highlights the importance of assessing not only the fecundity of flowering individuals but also the proportion of individuals reproducing within fragments.     

Build up of patches caused by Rhizoctonia solani

Rhizoctonia solani is a complex species that is composed of different anastomosis groups (AG). Although these different AGs show differences in their host ranges, generally R. solani is a phytopathogenic species with a wide spectrum of hosts. It has the ability to grow as a saprotroph, which further complicates its behaviour as a parasite. The losses caused by R. solani are very important and need a sustainable management strategy. The patchy appearance of the disease caused by this pathogen is well-known. The patches show within and between season dynamics. The factors which affect the spread of the disease can be grouped into three main categories: host plant, pathogen and environment. However, each of the categories in its detail may depend on or react with the other categories. There are a number of factors that may be involved in dynamics of patches. These potential mechanisms are discussed. It is essential to know about the mechanisms involved to develop an effective control strategy. Although more work is needed to investigate different mechanisms of parasitism deployed by different AGs in different hosts, it seems that many mechanisms external to the host are operating at the same time which necessitates an integrative research approach to study and control the diseases caused by R. solani.