The use of a mass-action model to validate the output from a stochastic simulation model of bovine viral diarrhoea virus spread in a closed dairy herd

The spread of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in a closed dairy herd maintained under typical management conditions is studied using two approaches. In the first instance a stochastic computer model is used to simulate the month-to-month changes in the infection status of each animal. These results are contrasted with the results of a mass-action model which uses three differential equations. A comparison of the two approaches indicates that the results are in broad agreement. The stochastic approach has the benefit of providing an estimate of the probability of the infection becoming extinct and the herd becoming BVDV-free for different herd sizes.     

汞在泥炭上的吸附特征研究

采用批次法研究了汞在三江平原泥炭、吉林双阳泥炭上等温吸附特征及介质pH值、背景离子浓度的影响。实验结果表明:两种泥炭吸附等温线均同时符合Langmuir和Freundlich等温吸附方程,而与Langmuir方程的拟合效果更好; 在溶液汞浓度相同时,温度升高,泥炭对汞的吸附量降低;在相同的条件下,三江平原泥炭对汞的吸附量大于吉林双阳泥炭对汞的吸附量;两种泥炭对汞的吸附量受pH值的影响明显且都在pH 6.0左右具有最大的吸附量;在酸性条件下,吸附介质的pH值升高利于泥炭对汞的吸附;介质的离子浓度升高,可以使两种泥炭对汞的吸附量迅速降低。     

Water balance simulation of a dryland soil during fallow under conventional and conservation tillage in semiarid Aragon, Northeast Spain

In Central Aragon, winter cereal is sown in the autumn (November–December), commonly after a 16–18 months fallow period aimed at conserving soil water. This paper uses the Simple Soil–Plant–Atmosphere Transfer (SiSPAT) model, in conjunction with field data, to study the effect of long fallowing on the soil water balance under three tillage management systems (conventional tillage, CT; reduced tillage, RT; and no-tillage, NT). This was on the assumption that soil properties would remain unchanged during the entire fallow season. Once the model was validated with data obtained before primary tillage implementation, the differences between simulated and observed soil water losses for the CT and RT treatments could be interpreted as the direct effect of the soil tillage system. The model was calibrated and validated in a long-term tillage experiment using data from three contrasting long-fallow seasons over the period 1999–2002, where special attention was paid to predicting soil hydraulic properties in the pre-tillage conditions. The capacity of the model to simulate the soil water balance and its components over long fallowing was demonstrated. Both the fallow rainfall pattern and the tillage management system affected the soil water budget and components predicted by the model. The model predicted that about 81% of fallow seasonal rainfall is lost by evaporation in long-fallow periods with both a dry autumn in the first year of fallow and a rainfall above normal in spring. Whereas, when the fallow season is characterised by a wet autumn during the first year of fallow the model predicted a decrease in soil water evaporation and an increase in water storage and deep drainage components. In this case, the predicted water lost by evaporation was higher under NT (64%) than under RT (56%) and CT (44%). The comparison between measured and simulated soil water loss showed that the practice of tillage decreased soil water conservation in the short term. The long-term analysis of the soil water balance showed that, in fallow periods with a wet autumn during the first year of fallow, the soil water loss measured under CT and RT was moderately greater than that predicted by the model.     

Phosphorus Dynamics in a Luvic Phaeozem After 50 Years of Different P Fertilization

After 50 years of differentiated P fertilization great differences in plant-available P contents between the treatments were measured. However, yield and P uptake varied marginally and only in few plant species these parameters changed significantly. Investigations of P availability, P release and P sorption in different soil depths should show, which phosphorus fractions are important for P supply of agricultural plants in a Luvic Phaeozem. This information can be used for the improvement of fertilization recommendations. A significant decrease in DL-soluble P content in P0 and P15 treatments down to a soil depth of 60cm was measured. Diffusible P content was substantially higher in the P45 treatment in comparison to P0 and P15. Subsoil seems to be an important additional P source. Plant species have a significant influence on phosphorus dynamic. High P sorption in the investigated Luvic Phaeozem, which could not be reduced by excessive P fertilization, may be one of the reasons for low fertilization efficiency in this trial.     

Environmental effects related to the local absence of exotic fish

Given the extent of biological invasions in industrialized countries, our understanding of the determinants of overall patterns of biological invasions could gain most from consideration of why exotic species are absent from some areas, rather than from distribution patterns of exotic species. Fish communities were sampled at 381 sites representing 221 rivers in the Adour-Garonne stream system (116 000 km², SW France). Very few rivers were not colonized by exotic fish species, however, on a local basis, only 33% of the sampling sites hosted exotics. Using General Linear Modelling, we found that patterns of exotic fish (occurrence, number of species, proportion within assemblage) responded to both land-use and physical variables, whereas patterns of native fish only responded to the local meso-scale characteristics of each stream reach from headwaters to mouth. All fish communities were susceptible to invasion regardless of native species richness, and higher native species richness did not decrease the opportunity for establishment by exotic species. The likelihood that exotic fish are absent primarily increased with elevation and with lower human influence upon the land cover, while human-impacted landscapes (agricultural and urban areas) were more likely to host exotic fish and higher numbers of exotic species. In light of urban and agricultural development, our ability to detect responses of exotic species to landscape alterations using a combination of simple physical and land cover variables exemplifies a cost-effective technique for assessing areas at greater invasion risk in large stream systems.     

Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagussylvatica L.) under climate change—Range,abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response

We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in a future climate. The change in local population size in the centre of the distribution of beech has a small effect on the genetic diversity of beech, which is projected to maintain its current population size or to increase in population size. Thus, an adaptive response of functional traits of small populations at the leading and trailing edges of the distribution is possible based on genetic diversity available in the local population, even within a period of 2–3 generations.     

Adsorption of dissolved organic carbon to mineral soils: A comparison of four isotherm approaches

The partitioning of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) within mineral soils is primarily controlled by adsorption to soil particle surfaces. We compare the theoretical limitations and modeling accuracy of four isotherm approaches to describe DOC partitioning to soil surfaces. We use 52 mineral soil samples to create linear initial mass (IM), non-linear, and Langmuir isotherms, all relating the initial solution concentration (X_i) to the amount of DOC adsorbed or released from soil surfaces. The Langmuir isotherm is also used with final concentration (X_f). The IM isotherm failed to meet theoretical assumptions and provided poor fits to experimental data. The non-linear and Langmuir X_i approaches had good fits to experimental data, and the Langmuir X_i approach had the most robust estimates of desorption capacity. Both Langmuir X_i and X_f isotherms hold the advantage of estimating the maximum adsorption capacity, yet the X_f isotherm is a better reflection of adsorption processes.     

影响农药在土壤与沉积物上吸附作用的研究

农药是环境中重要的有机污染物之一，吸附作用是农药在土壤/沉积物环境中的重要迁移转化行为之一。从农药的性质结构、土壤/沉积物的组成、温度、pH值和共存有机化合物等几方面，阐述了上述因素对农药在土壤/沉积物上吸附作用及其机理的影响，并提出了该领域存在的问题及今后发展的方向。     

挥发性氯代烃在土壤中的吸附行为研究进展

挥发性氯代烃(Volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons,VCHs)是工业污染场地的常见污染物,在非饱和带存在于土壤气相、水相、固相或以高密度非水相液体(Dense non-aqueous phase liquids,DNAPL)的形式存在,形成一个动态平衡系统。土壤对VCHs的吸附不仅影响土壤中的污染物浓度,而且极大地影响VCHs的迁移转化行为。根据VCHs在土壤中的吸附机制,可以对土壤中的VCHs浓度进行预测,优化各种模型参数,指导污染修复及管理工作。本文总结了VCHs在非饱和带土壤中的相间分配特征,吸附机制及其影响因素,特别探讨了土壤有机碳、矿物及水分对吸附的影响,提出了当前研究中存在的问题,并对将来研究进行了展望。     

Evaluation of bovine viral diarrhea virus control using a mathematical model of infection dynamics

A mathematical model for infection with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) was created comprising a series of coupled differential equations. The model architecture is a development of the traditional model framework using susceptible, infectious and removed animals (the SIR model). The model predicts 1.2% persistent infection (within the range of field estimates) and is fairly insensitive to alterations of structure or parameter values. This model allows us to draw important conclusions regarding the control of BVD, particularly with respect to the importance of persistently infected (PI) animals in maintaining BVD as an endemic entity in the herd. Herds without PI animals are likely to experience episodic reproductive losses at intervals of two to three years, unlike herds with PI animals which will not see such marked episodic manifestations of infection. Instead, these herds will experience an initial peak of disease which will settle to low-level chronic reproductive losses. The model indicates that vaccine coverage for herd immunity (to avoid episodic manifestations of disease) need be only 57% without PI animals, although 97% coverage is required when PI animals are present. Analysis of model behavior suggests, a program of detection and removal of PI animals may enhance the effectiveness of a vaccine program provided these animals are in the herd for 10 days or less. The best results would be seen with PI animals in the herd for 5 or fewer days.