气象实时数据监控程序的设计与开发

对上海气象信息与技术支持中心而言,原先的气象信息数据监控系统由于操作复杂而需要改进.新的监控系统开发使用delphi6.0语言和多线程技术,对自动站数据、雷达和卫星数据、MICAPS压缩数据和MICAPS解压数据这四类气象实时数据进行监控,以一体化的方式展现所有重要的监控信息,提高了工作效率.     

浅谈气象灾害对设施农业的影响

近年来设施农业种植面积不断扩大,已经成为当地农民增收的重要来源,然而设施农业生产与气象条件密切相关.文章分析了设施农业种植等作物的气象灾害,并提出应对措施,以期为设施农业生产提供参考.     

呼和浩特市春季气象要素与空气质量指数的灰色关联分析

利用环保部门互联网公布的呼和浩特市2014年春季（3-5月）空气质量指数,及气象部门同步观测的有关气象要素数据,采用灰色关联方法分析探讨日平均风速、日平均地面温度、日平均水汽压、日平均气温、日平均相对湿度对呼和浩特市春季空气质量指数影响程度,从而为进一步做好空气污染气象条件预报及空气质量预报提供依据。结果表明,呼和浩特市2014年春季,各气象因素对空气质量指数影响程度从大到小排序依次为日平均风速、日平均相对湿度、日平均水汽压、日平均气温、日平均地面温度。     

一种基于PSO的改进光流算法

在假设各个业务线的增量已决赔款服从伽玛分布、逆高斯分布和对数正态分布的基础上, 建立了各个业务线增量已决赔款的GAMLSS模型, 并将此模型应用于一组具有明显异方差的车险数据, 拟合效果优于均值回归模型. 另外, 在多个业务线的准备金估计中, 不同业务线之间的相依性通过藤Copula函数来描述. 用D藤Copula描述相依关系的GAMLSS模型对准备金的评估结果既优于独立假设下的GAMLSS模型和链梯法对准备金的评估结果,同时还刻画了不同业务线之间的尾部相依性.     

转基因食品感知风险对消费者购买意愿的影响研究——基于武汉市消费者的调查分析

消费者对转基因食品(Genetically Modified Foods,GMF)的感知风险及购买意愿不仅事关政府和企业的相关决策,而且事关转基因食品的可持续发展。本研究基于武汉市384名消费者的调查数据,通过因子分析和回归分析的二步模型,对消费者的GMF感知风险及其对购买意愿的影响进行实证分析。研究表明,消费者对GMF的感知风险主要集中在4个方面,即:人体健康风险、社会经济风险、生态环境风险和食品功能风险。其中,前三者显著影响消费者对GMF的购买意愿,食品功能感知风险对GMF购买意愿的影响并不显著。     

安徽省棉花主要气象灾害类型及减灾措施

棉花是安徽省的主要经济作物。为了降低气象灾害对棉花生产造成的严重经济损失,笔者简述了安徽省的棉花种植情况及气象灾害概况,并详细介绍了主要气象灾害类型对棉花的影响,最后提出了灾后补救措施。     

荣成市无花果种植的自然条件分析及主要气象灾害防御

从温度、降水、土壤、光照等方面对荣成市无花果种植的自然条件进行了分析,并就无花果生长期可能遇到的气象灾害进行了讨论,提出要充分利用当地的气候资源,趋利避害,提高无花果的产量。为荣成市无花果的生产和管理及进一步推广提供了科学依据。     

2014年气象条件对枣庄峄城区冬小麦生长发育的影响分析

根据冬小麦生长发育的农业气象指标,利用对比分析的方法得出2014年驿城区冬小麦高产的有利气象条件。播种－出苗阶段,底墒水充足,小麦出苗率高,生长整齐;返青提前,使返青期长,穗分化时间加长,可能造成小麦小穗数增加,穗粒教增多;拔节－抽穗期,虽然降水比常年偏少,但能够基本满足小麦开花灌浆对水分的需求;适宜的温度,充足的降水和日照条件,对小麦的抽穗、灌浆非常有利,也是小麦增产的主要原因。     

气象科技服务对公共气象服务的促进和发展思考

针对娄底市气象科技服务发展的特点和现状,重点提出要积极探索手机短信气象服务新途径、加强气象防雷服务和科技服务人才队伍建设等未来发展方向,为提高娄底市气象科技服务的预测和预报能力,完善气象服务体系,提升公共气象服务的水平提供了有益的参考。     

Death from anthropogenic causes is partially compensatory in recovering wolf populations

There is substantial interest in how mortality rates affect animal populations, but mechanisms explaining when and under what circumstances particular causes of death incur demographic responses are far from clear. In theory, small or expanding populations should experience additive mortality from anthropogenic causes of death, but whether such effects are homogenous across a population or expressed only in certain high-risk individuals is open for debate. We used competing risks models to analyze mortality patterns among radio-collared wolves (Canis lupus, n = 711) from three populations in northwestern United States (1982-2004), and evaluated the degree to which anthropogenic mortality was additive vs. compensatory to natural demographic processes. Almost 80% (n = 320) of wolves dying of known fates were killed by anthropogenic causes (legal control, illegal killing, harvest in Canada, vehicle collision), and additive effects of anthropogenic mortality were most pronounced in northwestern Montana where wolf exposure to humans and livestock was high compared to either the Greater Yellowstone Area or central Idaho, where anthropogenic risk was lower. In contrast, risk from natural hazards was lower in northwestern Montana than in the other areas, implying some degree of compensatory mortality from anthropogenic risk. Animals recruited to the study following human-wolf conflict had markedly higher anthropogenic risk than those recruited for standard monitoring purposes, and juvenile wolves as well as dispersers, succumbed to higher anthropogenic risk. Multivariate models revealed that increasing wolf population density promoted higher anthropogenic risk and reduced natural risk, indicating that partially-compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality actually became increasingly additive with population density. The observed compensatory mortality and hazard heterogeneity in our study implies that demographic responses to mortality risk may be complex and more subtle than previously thought; the density-dependent effect of anthropogenic mortality portends a stabilizing influence of humans on recovering wolf populations. We conclude that future assessment of the role of anthropogenic mortality should include individual-based hazard estimation as a complement to traditional population-level approaches.