温度与昆虫内禀增长率关系模型的比较

数学模型可用于反映温度对昆虫生长速率的动态变化,为选择一个对害虫发生预测具有重要意义的通用性模型,选择Beta、Briére、Ratkowsky和Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois(LRF)4个非线性模型分别对8组不同温度下昆虫和螨类内禀增长率数据集进行拟合,并比较模型拟合效果的优劣。结果表明:Ratkowsky模型对8组数据的拟合优度总体表现最好,其次为LRF模型和Beta模型,而Briére模型表现欠佳;Ratkowsky模型对低温阈值和高温阈值的估计较其它3个模型更为可靠。Ratkowsky模型不仅可以用于描述温度对细菌种群增长速率的影响,还可应用于描述温度对昆虫和螨类内禀增长率的影响。     

遗传算法优化神经网络的坡面入渗产流模型

引入遗传算法优化BP神经网络权重和阈值的方法建立黄土坡面产流入渗模型.模型以雨强、降雨历时、表层40 cm土壤前期含水量、坡度值为输入项,径流量、入渗量为输出项,用实测资料对网络进行模拟和预测.模拟结果平均误差6.32%和1.93%,预测结果平均误差为5.71%和1.92%.并与传统BP神经网络模型和定雨强Philip...     

Estimates of Breed Average Direct,Maternal and Heterosis Effects for Some Pre-weaning Traits of Zebu Breeds and Their Crosses in Southeastern Mexico

Information on 936 birth weights (BW), adjusted weaning weights (AWW) and average daily gains (ADG) from Brahman (B), Indubrazil (I), Gyr (G) and commercial Zebu (C) cattle and their crosses were obtained from the records of a farm in the State of Yucatan, Mexico. Two statistical models were used to analyse the data: the first included the effects of year and season of birth, sex of the calf, cow's parity number and breed group. The other model included the same environmental effects as the previous model and the genetic components of breed group (breed additive, breed maternal and heterosis effects). Additive and maternal effects were expressed as deviations from those for the B breed. The means of BW, AWW and ADG for the B breed were 33.3 ± 0.64 kg, 204.0 ± 4.9 kg and 760.06 ± 19.24 g/day, respectively. Both models gave similar results in terms of the variance explained. Additive effects were significant (p < 0.05) for AWW and ADG but not for BW. The minor additive effect was for the C breed (−10.75 kg and −40.77 g for WW and ADG, respectively). Maternal and heterosis effects were not significant (p > 0.05) for any of the traits. The correlation between the breed group means and the means estimated by the prediction equation was r = 0.88. Finally, there was no significant genetic effect on pre-weaning calf performance among the genotypes evaluated. The genetic model can be used to predict the genotype means with a high degree of accuracy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

外来入侵植物意大利苍耳在我国适生区预测

意大利苍耳是20世纪90年代入侵我国的检疫性杂草,近年来呈快速扩散趋势。明确其适生区对科学监测和控制该杂草意义重大。本研究采用生态位模型预测了其在我国的适生区。首先利用原产地北美洲的分布点构建GARP生态位模型预测其在全球适生区,然后利用全球已知入侵点为独立检验数据通过ROC曲线检验模型的准确性。分析显示原产地数据构建生态位模型具有很强的预测能力(AUC=0.91)。进而将该模型投影到中国,结果显示除青海、西藏、新疆天山山脉以南和内蒙古北部地区外的区域都是意大利苍耳在我国的适生区。针对于意大利苍耳在我国广阔的适生区以及繁殖能力强、种子具钩刺等易于扩散的生物学特性和多样化的扩散途径,意大利苍耳在中国即将进入一个快速扩散阶段。建议对新入侵的地区采取早期根除措施,加大对适生区内港口、机场、旅游区等极易传入区域的监测力度,以预防其再度入侵和控制其在我国进一步的扩散。     

基于深度学习算法的京津冀地区综合干旱评估模型构建

及时准确的干旱评估对社会经济发展和农业生产具有重要的指导意义,当前的干旱评估指标通常仅考虑植被或降水等单方面影响因素,在实际干旱评估中存在一定的局限性。本研究综合考虑降水、温度、地形等多个干旱致灾因子,以主要产粮基地京津冀地区为例,基于2007-2017年地表温度（Land Surface Temperature,LST）、归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）以及降水等多源数据,利用深度学习框架Tensorflow构建以标准化降水蒸散发指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI）为目标值的综合干旱评估模型。利用决定系数（R2）和均方根误差（RMSE）对模型进行测试;利用站点标准化降水指数（Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI）、土壤相对湿度数据以及2016年京津冀地区的气象灾害数据,从时间和空间上对模型的可靠性进行验证。结果表明：模型的训练集和测试集在不同月份上均表现较好（R2均大于0.5而RMSE均小于0.55）。模型输出的综合干旱指数（Comprehensive Drought Index,CDI）在密云站上与SPI和SPEI接近,变化趋势基本一致,并且与站点SPI和土壤相对湿度的相关系数分别大于0.7和0.4,均通过了0.01水平的显著性检验。空间上,相较于SPEI,CDI计算的2016年3-7月京津冀地区干旱事件结果与实际情况符合度更高,表明该模型适用于京津冀地区干旱评估。     

塑料连栋温室黄瓜生长温度数学模型的研究

为提高塑料连栋温室黄瓜的栽培水平,以能量平衡理论为分析平台,将温室中的空气温度拟合于栽培环境模型中,运用MATLAB程序模拟,并以试验验证模型。结果表明,该模型物理意义明确,便于数值模拟,且模拟结果与试验吻合好。就温室内5月份空气温度模拟而言,回归直线拟合度高,R2=0．8999,绝对误差在±0．85℃之内,平均相对误差9．1％。对回归方母=ax＋b,a与b的标准误差Sa=0．0352〈a／2,Sb=0．1053〈b／2。     

党参种子的离散元仿真参数标定与试验验证

为设计及优化党参机械化播种设备,提供基础仿真参数,本文对甘肃省种植的两种党参种子(渭党1号和甘党2号)通过试验法确定其基本物理参数(形状尺寸、质量密度、体积密度、千粒重、含水率)和接触力学参数(恢复系数、静摩擦系数);通过斜面滚动试验结合EDEM仿真,预测党参种子与ABS塑料板间的滚动摩擦系数;通过调整党参种子模型间的...     

气候变化条件下木瓜秀粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区预测

为明确木瓜秀粉蚧Paracoccus marginatus Williams et Granara de Willink 1922在中国的潜在适生区,基于中国820个气象站点的气象数据和未来气候变化数据,结合木瓜秀粉蚧的生物学特性,利用CLIMEX模型对该虫在中国当前气候以及未来气候条件下的潜在适生区进行预测。结果显示,木瓜秀粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区主要在南方,适生区面积占全国陆地总面积的9.07%。高适生区主要包括海南省、广东省南部、广西壮族自治区南部以及福建省和云南省小部分地区。在未来气候条件下,2050年木瓜秀粉蚧的潜在适生区将进一步扩大,适生区面积所占比例将增加至15.46%,且有向北移动的趋势。表明木瓜秀粉蚧对中国南方地区的农业潜在威胁巨大,建议将该虫增补为检疫对象,并加强检疫监管和种群动态监测。     

一种溶质运移数学模型的应用研究

土壤中溶质运移的过程、规律和机理是土壤溶质运移研究的主要内容。本文的目的是对模拟非饱和介质中水分和溶质迁移的二维数值模型SWMS－2D进行研究和验证。以硝酸盐形式存在的溶解氮是地下水中最常见的污染物，将硝态氮视为土壤溶质，考虑其根系吸收、生物固持、吸附、解吸、硝化和反硝化等作用，土壤表面即上边界条件用大气边界条件描述，下边界条件定为第一类边界条件，在田间条件下对模型作了检验。     

Host status and reaction of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Medicago truncatula</Emphasis> accessions to infection by three major pathogens of pea (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pisum sativum</Emphasis>) and alfalfa (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Medicago sativa</Emphasis>)

Ditylenchus dipsaci, the stem nematode of alfalfa (Medicago sativa), Mycosphaerella pinodes, cause of Ascochyta blight in pea (Pisum sativum) and Aphanomyces euteiches, cause of pea root rot, result in major yield losses in French alfalfa and pea crops. These diseases are difficult to control and the partial resistances currently available are not effective enough. Medicago truncatula, the barrel medic, is the legume model for genetic studies, which should lead to the identification and characterization of new resistance genes for pathogens. We evaluated a collection of 34 accessions of M. truncatula and nine accessions from three other species (two from M. italica, six from M. littoralis and one from M. polymorpha) for resistance to these three major diseases. We developed screening tests, including standard host references, for each pathogen. Most of the accessions tested were resistant to D. dipsaci, with only three accessions classified as susceptible. A very high level of resistance to M. pinodes was observed among the accessions, none of which was susceptible to this pathogen. Conversely, a high level of variation, from resistant to susceptible accessions, was identified in response to infection by A. euteiches.