SALTIRSOIL: a simulation model for the mid to long‐term prediction of soil salinity in irrigated agriculture

The SALTIRSOIL model predicts soil salinity, sodicity and alkalinity in irrigated land using basic information on soil, climate, crop, irrigation management and water quality. It extends the concept of the WATSUIT model to include irrigation and crop management practices, advances in the calculation of evapotranspiration and new algorithms for the water stress coefficient and calculation of electrical conductivity. SALTIRSOIL calculates the soil water balance and soil solution concentration over the year. A second module, SALSOLCHEM, calculates the inorganic ion composition of the soil solution at equilibrium with soil calcite and gypsum at the soil’s CO₂ partial pressure. Results from comparing predicted and experimentally determined concentrations, observations and predictions of pH, alkalinity and calcium concentration in calcite‐saturated solutions agree to the second significant figure; in gypsum‐saturated solutions the standard difference between observations and predictions is <3% in absolute values. The algorithms in SALTIRSOIL have been verified and SALSOLCHEM validated for the reliable calculation of soil salinity, sodicity and alkalinity at water saturation in well‐drained irrigated lands. In simulations for horticultural crops in southeast Spain, soil solution concentration factors at water saturation, quotients of electrical conductivity (EC₂₅) at saturation to electrical conductivity in the irrigation water, and quotients of sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) are very similar to average measured values for the area.     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

Finding niches for whole-farm design models – contradictio in terminis?

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.     

An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description

Water and land resource competition and environmental degradation pose difficult questions for resource managers. In particular, the ensuing trade-offs between economic, environmental, and social factors and their spatiotemporal variability must be considered when implementing management policies. This paper describes an integrated modelling toolbox that has been developed for highland catchments – specifically the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. This toolbox contains models of crop growth, erosion and rainfall-runoff, as well as household decision and socioeconomic impact models. The approach described advances and complements previous approaches by: considering more complex interactions between land-use decisions and the hydrological cycle; modelling household decisions based on uncertain expectations; and assessing impacts of changes not only on flows and household income, but also on subsistence production and erosion. An example of the types of trade-offs and scenarios that can be assessed using the integrated modelling toolbox is also presented. This demonstrates that for the scenarios presented, the magnitude and direction of impacts simulated by the model is not dependent on climate. Further testing of the model is demonstrated in a companion paper. Overall, the plausibility of the model is shown.     

Using drainage systems for supplementary irrigation

The use of drainage systems for supplementary irrigation is widespread in The Netherlands. One of the operating policies is to raise the surface water level during the growing season in order to reduce drainage (water conservation) or to create subsurface irrigation. This type of operation is based on practical experience, which can be far from optimal.To obtain better founded operational water management rules a total soil water/surface water model was built. In a case study the effects of using the drainage system in a dual-purpose manner on the arable crop production were simulated with the model. Also, the operational rules for managing this type of dual-purpose drainage systems were derived.The average annual simulated increase in crop transpiration due to water conservation and water supply for subsurface irrigation are 6.0 and 5.4 mm.y^–1, respectively. This is equivalent with 520 × 10³ and 460 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for the pilot region (2 Dfl 1 US $). The corresponding investments and operational costs are 600 × 10³ Dfl and 9 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for water conservation and 3200 × 10³ Dfl and 128 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for subsurface irrigation. Hence, water conservation is economically very profitable, whereas subsurface irrigation is less attractive.Comparing the management according to the model with current practice in a water-board during 1983 and 1986 learned that benefits can increase with some 50 and 500 Dfl per ha per year, respectively.     

Simulation modelling of potato virus Y spread in relation to initial inoculum and vector activity

Potato virus Y(PVY) is a non-persistent virus that is transmitted by many aphid species and causes significant damage to potato production. We constructed a spatially-explicit model simulating PVY spread in a potato field and used it to investigate possible effects of transmission efficiency, initial inoculum levels, vector behavior, vector abundance, and timing of peak vector activity on PVY incidence at the end of a simulated growing season. Lower PVY incidence in planted seed resulted in lower virus infection at the end of the season. However, when populations of efficient PVY vectors were high, significant PVY spread occurred even when initial virus inoculum was low. Non-colonizing aphids were more important for PVY spread compared to colonizing aphids, particularly at high densities. An early-season peak in the numbers of noncolonizing aphids resulted in the highest number of infected plants in the end of the season, while mid-and late-season peaks caused relatively little virus spread. Our results highlight the importance of integrating different techniques to prevent the number of PVY-infected plants from exceeding economically acceptable levels instead of trying to control aphids within potato fields. Such management plans should be implemented very early in a growing season.     

Geomorphic estimates of the stability of a uranium mill tailings containment cover: Nabarlek,Northern Territory,Australia

The geomorphic stability of the cover (cap) over the pit of Nabarlek Uranium Mine in Arnhem Land, Northern Australia, is important because radon gas and other long-lived radio-nuclides arising from mill tailings must be contained for long periods. The primary agents of denudation in the region's seasonally wet tropical environment of low relief are rainwash, overland flow, rilling and gullying. Other agents of erosion are of less concern, although biogenic agents of erosion (e.g. termites and windthrow) may enhance fluvial activity. A combination of modelling, using the Universal Soil Loss Equation, and analogue estimates of denudation and thresholds of rilling and gullying from areas with similar geology, topography and climate are used to estimate the stability of the Nabarlek cover. Denudation rates are conservatively estimated at less than 100mm ky⁻¹. It is suggested that with some minor design modifications the cover will retain its integrity for several thousand years.     

消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素

为探索消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的影响因素和机制路径,本研究基于PPM理论,构建结构方程模型分析了消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素,并运用多群组分析不同消费者行为影响因素的差异性。结果表明：1）价格、信息、服务不满意构成正向影响消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的推力因素;感知有用性、搜索、消费体验感构成正向影响迁徙行为的拉力因素;程序转移成本构成负向影响迁徙行为的锚定因素。2）锚定因素负向调节推力因素对迁徙行为的作用效果。3）性别、年龄、学历水平三个人口统计特征在不同假设路径中的影响较为显著。其中女性、30岁及以下、学历水平大专以上的群体更愿意在线上渠道购买生鲜水果。结论丰富了生鲜水果领域消费者迁徙行为的研究成果,并为生鲜电商可持续发展提供了启示。     

Adapting bioenergetic factorial modelling to understand the implications of heat stress on barramundi (Lates calcarifer) growth,feed utilisation and optimal protein and energy requirements – potential strategies for dealing with climate change?

The implications of temperature on bioenergetics for barramundi (Lates calcarifer) were defined in an improved factorial model that encompassed revised parameters accounting for effects over the temperature range of 16–39 °C and size range of 10–3000 g. A revised growth function describing weight gain by barramundi as a function of fish weight and temperature was derived from farm and laboratory data and included a term for a shift in optimal temperature with fish size: Gain (g fish^?1 day^?1) = (K + xT + yT ² + zT³) * (weight)^ax+b. Maintenance energy and protein demand functions were also derived on a similar form, and all three functions combined to form the basis of a factorial model for energy and protein demand. Using this model, optimal iterative feed specifications were defined for a range of fish sizes at temperatures of 25, 30 and 35 °C. A feed demand model was also developed based on the demand for digestible energy (DE) at each of these temperatures. The model shows that at high temperatures (35 °C), there is an increase in digestible protein (DP) to DE demand, and that with increasing size, there is a decrease in the DP to DE demand.     

渔业数据失真对两种非平衡剩余产量模型评估结果的影响比较

为了研究渔业数据失真对两种非平衡剩余产量模型评估结果的影响,以南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼渔业产量和单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)数据作为基础数据,加入5种不同程度[变异系数(CV)=1%、5%、10%、20%和30%]的随机误差,模拟了(1)无数据失真,(2)仅产量数据失真,(3)仅CPUE数据失真,(4)产量和CPUE数据均失真等4种情况。利用基于ASPIC的非平衡剩余产量模型(ASM)和基于贝叶斯状态空间建模方法的非平衡剩余产量模型(BSM)分别评估了最大可持续产量(MSY)、B_(MSY)、F_(MSY)、B_(2011)/B_(MSY)、F2011/F_(MSY)等5种生物学参考点和管理指标。结果显示,在无数据失真情况下,ASM和BSM评估的MSY分别为2.866×10~4 t和2.836×10~4 t,B_(2011)/B_(MSY)分别为1.366和1.324,F2011/F_(MSY)分别为0.627和0.667,均相差不大,表明该渔业目前状态良好,ASM得到了较大的B_(MSY)(31.48×10~4 t)和较小的F_(MSY)(0.091);数据失真对ASM评估的B_(MSY)和F_(MSY)分别产生了严重的过低估计和过高估计,且CPUE数据失真产生的影响要比产量数据失真大;随着随机误差的增大,BSM评估的生物学参考点和管理指标的绝对百分比偏差有增大趋势;与ASM相比,BSM能够更好地处理渔业数据中存在的随机误差,除了MSY以外,BSM评估的生物学参考点和管理指标绝对百分比偏差均要比ASM的评估结果低,尤其是B_(MSY)和F_(MSY)。因此,在使用存在较大随机误差的渔业数据进行资源评估时,BSM具有一定的优势。