制度变迁与制度绩效：来自中国农地的分析

制度经济学的理论可以用来分析中国农地制度变迁及其绩效。寻求最佳的绩效一直是制度变迁的终极目标。50多年来中国农地制度变迁一直在实践着一种效率更高的制度对另一种制度的替代。中国未来农地制度的变迁必须遵循土地产权制度安排的稳定性和资源最佳配置效应原则、激励机制健全原则、农地制度安排的渐进式原则和农村社会保障体系健全原则。     

鸡舍环境耐药细菌气溶胶及其向环境传播的研究

通过对舍内粪便、空气和舍外环境(10、50、100m)中的空气分离到的细菌鉴定，包括细菌DNA分子生物学检测及药物敏感实验以及细菌含量统计学分析，证明三者之间存在着内在联系；舍内环境微生物气溶胶包括耐药细菌通过舍内外气体交换排往鸡舍周围环境，舍周边环境在一定范围内受到生物污染。研究显示，在粪便、舍内空气、舍外环境10、50、100m空气中分离的金黄色葡萄球菌和链球菌80％以上对氯霉素(CMP)和对苯唑青霉素(OXA)耐药；粪便和舍内外环境空气中的80％以上的大肠杆菌和沙门氏菌对氨苄青霉素(AMP）、氯霉素(CMP)、头孢唑啉(CFZ)均为抑制。证明该鸡舍曾经使用过这些药物治疗或作为添加剂在饲料中添加，鸡群产生了耐药细菌菌株，并向环境传播。测量数据统计结果指出，十里河鸡场鸡舍内环境空气中的大肠杆菌、沙门氏菌、金黄色葡萄球菌和链球菌与舍外环境中相应菌群含量比较差异显著或极显著(P＜0．05或P＜0．01)，但舍外10、50、100m之间的相应菌群比较差异不显著(P＞0．05)，这说明鸡舍内环境细菌气溶胶含量产生多，含量高，菌源强度大；另一方面，反应了鸡舍内环境微生物气溶胶包括耐药细菌能向舍外环境扩散，位舍外环境在一定的范围内受到动物源性生物污染，影响范围大于100m。通过对鸡舍环境微生物气溶胶来源的探讨发现，粪便中的大肠杆菌、沙门氏菌、金黄色葡萄球菌和链球菌与舍内空气相应菌群数量关系比较，呈现正相关(r=0.99)。这从一个侧面揭示了粪便可能是微生物气溶胶的主要来源。     

甘肃省水资源时间序列模型及其变化规律研究

水文水资源序列是一个具有周期变化、随机变化和递增或递减趋势变化的复杂时间序列。作为一种近似,可以把水文序列{Qt}分为趋势序列{Nt}、周期序列{Pt}和随机性的平稳时间序列{St},即式:Qt=Nt+Pt+St。采用时间序列分析的方法,建立了甘肃省水资源的时间序列模型,分析了其变化规律,结果表明,甘肃省水资源呈明显下降趋势,并存在一定的周期变化规律。     

禽白血病病毒J亚群(ALV-J)的攻毒试验

将禽白血病病毒 J亚群 (AL V- J)内蒙株 NM876 1和 NM9996人工接种于 1日龄爱维茵肉种鸡 ,通过眼观、病理组织学检查观察了攻毒鸡的病理学特征 ;通过 PCR和 EL ISA技术检测了病毒感染率、抗体变化规律以及病毒和抗体的相关性。结果显示 ,攻毒鸡从第 3周开始即可检出病毒 ,NM876 1株和 NM9996株病毒感染率分别为 71.4 %和6 4 .3% ;从第 5周开始 ,出现较明显的病理学变化 ,病变特征以骨髓、肝脏、心脏、脾、卵巢等组织内髓细胞增生为主 ,而法氏囊、脑、坐骨神经无变化 ;攻毒鸡抗体消长变化有一定的规律 ,一般在 7～ 8周龄和 18～ 2 0周龄时分别出现 1次高峰 ,而在 4～ 6周龄、10周龄和 2 3周龄分别出现 1次低谷 ,提示鸡场进行 EL ISA检测时要避开这一时期 ;攻毒鸡产生耐受性病毒血症 ,即病毒阳性而抗体阴性 (V A- )的比例较高 (7/14 ,9/14 )。通过以上的研究证明 ,AL V- J内蒙株疾病模型复制成功 ,NM876 1、NM9996可作为原型株进行相关研究     

Patterns of silver eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) sex ratio in a catchment

Abstract –  Changes in the numbers and size-class structure of European silver eels, Anguilla anguilla , in the River Frémur (France) were examined over a 9-year period after installation of downstream eel passes. The number of silver eels migrating downstream peaked in 1999, then decreased strongly and steadily after 2000, reaching relatively low levels. At the same time, a gradual shift in the silver eel sex ratio from a dominance of males (size from 270 to 442 mm, age from 3 to 6 years) to females (size from 366 to 1112 mm, age from 4 to 9 years) was recorded. Possible explanations for the escapement patterns observed are environmental sex determination and the installation of eel passes on the main hydraulic engineering structures in 1992 and 1996.     

Change in spatial characteristics of forest openings in the Klamath Mountains of northwestern California,USA

Change in the spatial characteristics of forest openings was investigated in three forested watersheds in north-western Siskiyou County, California totalling approximately 24,600 hectares. Watersheds with minimal human disturbance were chosen for study. However, fire suppression has been pervasive throughout. Characteristics of forest openings (area, perimeter, distance between neighboring openings) were measured on aerial photographs taken 41 years apart. An index of regional form was determined for the landscape. Shape complexity for each opening was calculated using two indices based upon fractals. Significant differences were found using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample test between the perimeters, areas, distance from sample point to nearest opening, and distance between neighboring openings. The perimeters and areas became smaller, and the distances from the sample point to the nearest opening and between neighboring openings became greater over the 41 years between aerial photo sets. The estimated area occupied by openings decreased from 25.8 % to 15.6 % of the study area. No significant difference was found in the shape of the openings except as the shape indices were influenced by changes in size of the openings.This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and it is therefore in the public domain and not subject to copyright.     

A review of models of landscape change

Models of landscape change may serve a variety of purposes, from exploring the interaction of natural processes to evaluating proposed management treatments. These models can be categorized as either whole landscape models, distributional landscape models, or spatial landscape models, depending on the amount of detail included in the models. Distributional models, while widely used, exclude spatial detail important for most landscape ecological research. Spatial models require substantial data, now more readily available, via remote sensing, and more easily manipulated, in geographical information systems. In spite of these technical advances, spatial modelling is poorly developed, largely because landscape change itself is poorly understood.To facilitate further development of landscape models I suggest (1) empirical multivariate studies of landscape change, (2) modelling of individual landscape processes, (3) explicit study of the effect of model scale on model behavior, and (4) scaling-up results of studies, on smaller land areas, that have landscape relevance.     

陆地棉核雄性不育材料在山东不同地区的育性转变及应用研究

对在山东的济南、平度、莱西、烟台种植的几种陆地棉（Ｇｏｓｓｙｐｉｕｍ　ｈｉｒｓｕｔｕｍＬ．）核雄性不育材料的育性表现进行了研究,结果表明：洞Ａ不育系的衍生材料ＭＢ、ＭＡ在不同气候条件下有育性的变化。在济南高度不育,可作为不育系。在其他几个地区表现不同程度的可育。其中ＭＢ在平度有相当好的育性,能正常结铃。而双隐性核不育材料５９Ａ、６２Ａ未能观察到育性变化。本文就核不育材料在棉花杂交制种中的应用前景及需深入研究的问题作了探讨。     

THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND FORESTRY OF HEILONGJI ANG PROVINCE IN 1990''''S

INTRODUCTIONIntheworldoftoday,theglobalclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonecologyhavebe-comeaveryimportantproblem,towhichmanyscientists,governnentleadersandordinarypcoplepaycloseattentionI1-'].Inl979,theWorldClimateResearchProgram(WCP)waslaiddowninthefirstworldclimatemeeting.lnl99(),thesecondworldclimatemeetingwasconvcl1edinGencva,andalltl1eexpertsagreedthattheglobalwarmlngwillbeextremelyseriousdisasterthananynatUralcalamityever.Attl1eMectingof"WorldEnvironmentandDevelopment,"holdinBrazil…