湖南省粮食产量波动的影响因素分析及预测

旨在维护国家稳定,为预判粮食生产前景、提高粮食生产效率、保障粮食安全提供理论依据。利用湖南省统计数据,运用灰色关联分析法筛选关联性较强的影响因素,并建立GM(1,N)预测模型预测粮食产量。2008—2017年与湖南省粮食产量关联度最大的影响因素是粮食作物播种面积和农业机械总动力;科技因素是影响2008—2017年湖南省粮食产量的主要因素,其次是自然因素,社会因素;2018—2027年湖南省粮食产量有较小波动,且农业机械总动力和财政农业支出影响较大;农业机械总动力在前后十年对粮食产量都有较重要的影响,越来越占据主导地位。粮食产量受国家政策的影响,受农业机械总动力影响最大,维持产量水平需高度重视农业机械化水平,稳步提高粮食作物播种面积。     

基于改进GM(1,N)模型的我国大豆价格影响因素分析及预测研究

大豆是我国重要的粮食作物和油料作物,其价格对于国民经济尤其是农业经济的影响意义深远。大豆价格的稳定对于我国大豆市场的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在灰色理论的基础上,提出了一种改进GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型,首先运用灰色关联分析法对我国大豆价格的影响因素进行分析,选择主要的影响因素;再将这些影响因素作为模型的相关因素变量,构建GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型。采用2010-2015年的大豆数据进行实证研究,模型选取国内大豆自给量、世界大豆产量、国民消费价格指数、消费者信心指数4个变量作为相关因素变量;模型预测误差为2.10%,预测精度较高,能够较好地掌握大豆价格的变化规律,可以为大豆价格市场预测及国家宏观政策的制定提供理论指导。     

硼肥用量对玉米生长发育及产量的影响

以郑单958和豫单606为试验材料,采用盆栽试验方法,探索不同硼肥用量对玉米产量及生长发育的影响。结果表明,施用适量硼肥可促进玉米生长发育,显著提高叶面积指数,使植株干物质积累量增加,同时硼肥能够促进干物质向果穗运输。施用硼肥能够促进玉米穗分化,使雌雄间隔期缩短,显著提高花丝数和花丝生长速率,进而增加穗粒数。施用硼肥显著提高玉米产量,且不同用量对其影响不同,3.33 mg/kg土壤硼肥处理的效果最为显著,郑单958和豫单606分别较不施硼肥处理增产14.3%和17.4%;施用量为13.3 mg/kg时郑单958增产3.5%;豫单606产生中毒症状,产量较对照降低4.4%。     

梨幼树到结果初期春施15N–尿素的利用及其在土壤的残留与损失

2014—2016年,以‘黄冠’梨为材料,采用15N示踪技术研究了从幼树期到结果初期梨树对春季施用氮素的吸收利用及土壤残留与损失情况。研究结果表明,幼树期(2014—2015年)梨树生长以中心干和粗根等树体骨干结构建立为主,生长量相对较小;进入结果初期(2016年)后树体生长表现为树体骨干结构建立为主,枝梢等营养器官生长与产量形成并存,生长量大幅增加。整个试验期间,树体贮藏器官的标记氮素吸收量较大,其中幼树期中心干吸收量最大,结果初期粗根吸收量最大。0~100 cm土层标记氮素残留量随土层深度和施用年限增加逐渐降低,其中,施用标记氮素后第1年(2014年),土壤标记氮素残留量较高,残留率达63.61%,梨幼树对标记氮素利用率仅为3.25%。随后两年(2015—2016年)土壤残留量较低,树体对标记氮素利用率仅为0.51%和0.80%。试验结束时,幼树期到结果初期梨树对标记氮素的累计利用率为4.57%,土壤标记氮素残留量为20.34%,损失率达75.07%。     

Effects of Different Nitrogen Treatments on N use Efficiency and Grain Yield of Mechanically-transplanted Hybrid Rice

In order to investigate effects of topdressing on grain yield and N use efficiency of mechanically-transplanted hybrid rice,this experiment was conducted with 2-line hybrid rice cultivars,Quanliangyou 1 and Quanliangyou 681 with 3 application levels of N fertilizer,No,N1,N2,respectively.The results showed that there were no significant differences in grain yields of the 2 varieties between treatments N1 and N2.It was indicated that N is not the factor which could limit grain yield within limited application levels of N fertilizer.High N fertilizer treatment could contribute to the formation of effective panicles and spikelets per panicle,but it could also lead to the decline in grain filling rate.It was suggested that lowering the amount of Nfertilizer could facilitate improvement of N-use efficiency.     

供氮方式对冬马铃薯氮肥利用效率及氮素去向的影响

以马铃薯费乌瑞它为试材,采用田间微区~(15)N示踪技术,研究施N量160kg·hm~(-2)全部基施(T1)、55%基施+45%在齐苗期追施(T2)、55%基施+30%在齐苗期追施+15%在现蕾期追施(T3)3种方式,对冬马铃薯氮肥利用效率及去向的影响。结果表明:马铃薯吸收的N约46%~52%来源于当季施用的氮肥,48%~54%来自土壤和种薯;肥料N利用率为35.16%~39.99%,残留率为47.71%~51.78%,损失率为8.23%~15.50%。3种施氮方式下,肥料N主要残留在0~15cm土层。随施氮时间后移,肥料N残留在0~15cm土层呈上升趋势,在15~45cm土层呈下降趋势。施氮方式对马铃薯干物质积累总量和块茎干物质积累量影响不明显,但T3肥料N利用率、肥料N残留率明显大于T1、T2。因此,综合经济效益和环境效益,T3施氮方式的效果较为理想。本研究为马铃薯氮素养分的有效管理提供了指导依据。     

Can differences in 15N natural abundance be used to quantify the transfer of nitrogen from legumes to neighbouring non-legume plant species?

Natural variations in the stable isotope ¹⁵N are often exploited in studies of N cycling in ecosystems. Lower ¹⁵N natural abundance in non-legume plants growing in association with legumes, compared with the non-legume grown alone in pure stands have been observed in cropping, forage, and agroforestry systems. Such observations have frequently been attributed to the transfer of biologically-fixed nitrogen (N) from the legume to the companion non-legume, and various methodologies have been employed to calculate the extent of the N transfer. While some of these ¹⁵N natural abundance-based estimates of N transfer were within the range previously reported using equivalent ¹⁵N-enriched techniques (<20% of non-legume plant N and <10 kg N ha⁻¹ derived from fixed N contributed by neighbouring legumes), many of the values obtained using natural abundance were much higher (30%–83% of the non-legume N derived from fixed N representing up to 30–40 kg N ha⁻¹) than generally measured by ¹⁵N-enriched methods; with even greater estimates being determined where data were available to allow N transfer to be re-calculated on the basis of total legume N rather than fixed N (42% to >100%, and up to 110 kg N ha⁻¹ per year). This review raises concerns about the assumptions behind the natural abundance approach, and provides some alternative interpretations for the observed differences in natural ¹⁵N abundance between plants grown in the presence and absence of legumes. It was concluded that simple comparative measures of non-legume δ¹⁵N alone cannot provide a quantitative estimate of N transfer between plant species if the dominant source and the isotopic identity of the transferred N cannot be validated, and if the extent of any isotopic fractionation associated with relevant N transformations occurring during transfer cannot be defined. To date this information is not forthcoming. There is a need to greatly improve our understanding of the transfer processes before the real value of the δ¹⁵N technology can be realized. In the first instance this will primarily be achieved by carefully executed experiments under controlled conditions, and in the field, employing both ¹⁵N natural abundance and enrichment approaches so estimates of transfer can be compared, and the data interrogated using modelling approaches to explore isotopic fractionation.     

两个林龄15个桉树无性系生长比较

对福建长泰岩溪林场两个林龄的15个桉树无性系进行调查分析，结果表明：5 a、15 a 时，各无性系树高、胸径、单株材积、公顷蓄积差异极显著。5 a 时 W7、DH32-27、EC1、DH32-22、209X 等为高产无性系；15 a 时 EC1、DH32-27、209X、W7、岩97、DH32-22、LH3、LH1为高产无性系。W5、LPT、LH22、W6等无性系生长缓慢，可能不适应闽南山地环境。选择这些适应闽南山地环境的优良无性系与 DH32-29等进行混系造林或嵌合造林，有利于增加桉树速丰林的遗传基因多样性。     

Effects of forage type and gibberellic acid on nitrate leaching losses

Nitrogen (N) leaching from soil into water is a significant concern for intensively grazed forage‐based systems because it can cause a decline in water quality and is a risk to human health. Urine patches from grazing animals are the main source of this N. The objective of this study was to quantify the effect that forage type and gibberellic acid (GA) application had on N leaching and herbage N uptake from urine patches on perennial ryegrass–white clover (RGWC), Italian ryegrass and lucerne. A lysimeter study was conducted over 17 months to measure herbage growth, N uptake and N loss to water beneath each of the three forage types with the following treatments: control, urine (700 kg N/ha) and urine with GA (8 g GA active ingredient/ha). Compared with RGWC (205 kg N/ha), N leaching losses were 35.3% lower from Italian ryegrass (133 kg N/ha) and 98.5% higher from lucerne (407 kg N/ha). These differences in leaching loss are likely to be due to winter plant growth and N uptake. During the winter months, Italian ryegrass had higher N uptake, whereas lucerne had lower N uptake, compared with RGWC. The application of GA had no effect on N leaching losses, DM yield or N uptake of forage treated with 700 kg N/ha urine.     

水稻高产、优质和氮高效协同的氮素调控研究

以超级粳稻‘新稻18号’为试验材料,大田条件下,研究不同施氮量(0、232.5、255.0、277.5、300.0、322.5和345.0kg/hm2纯氮水平)对水稻产量、品质及氮肥吸收利用效率的影响,以明确高产、优质和氮高效协同的适宜氮素水平。结果表明,随氮素水平提高,水稻产量、稻米品质和氮肥吸收利用效率均呈先增后降趋势。施氮量为255.0kg/hm2纯氮处理下,产量最高为9 878.11kg/hm2,稻米的糙米率、精米率和整精米率较高,分别为84.81%、72.85%和66.94%,垩白粒率和垩白度较低,分别10.00%和2.86%,氮肥吸收利用效率较高,为41.34%。低氮肥和高氮肥处理,产量、品质和氮肥利用效率相对较低。说明,在适宜的氮肥水平下,水稻高产、优质和氮高效可达到协同一致。