随机变量多重Weibull统计模型及参数最优估计

利用Weibull分布函数兼容性好的特点,采用混合Weibull分布模型来描述复杂随机变量分布,并按照最小二乘法原则,对统计模型参数进行最优化估计,建立复杂随机变量分布的统计模型。对某汽车发动机工作转矩统计模型的建立示例表明,多重Weibull分布适合用来表达一些复杂随机变量的统计特性,参数估计的最优化模型适用,参数优化估计过程能可靠收敛。     

A study of water distribution from a branch to distributary canals: A case study of Gugera Branch,Punjab, Pakistan

This study was conducted on Gugera Branch of Lower Chenab Canal, Punjab, Pakistan. Sample distributaries off taking from Gugera Branch were selected for the study. The existing conditions of water distribution among the distributaries were studied. Field data were collected during the whole of 1988. Field observations suggested that the variability at the head of distributaries is much greater than the variability in the Gugera Branch under existing operational practices. The distribution of water among the distributaries is rarely in accordance with design criteria. Some channels get priority over other channels. The annual closure period varied from 17 to 41 days for different channels. The discharge at the head of distributaries remained lower than the standard operational range for 69 to 183 days in a year. The data suggested that a regulating gate at the head of the distributary can reduce discharge variation up to 2.4 times compared with a Karrees System (wooden stop logs used for water regulation). The data indicated that the adjustments in the head gate of a distributary on daily basis can substantially improve discharge conditions at the head of distributary. Rotational schedules are not being followed as per design and need to be improved. Most of the existing head discharge relationships of discharge measuring structures are not reliable. A frequent calibration of these structures is recommended.     

对我国征地补偿制度的若干思考

从分析我国土地征用中利益分配机制入手,基于对国内外土地征用补偿方案的对比研究,对我国土地征用中土地征用范围、征地主体、补偿对象、补偿内容等方面进行了具体分析,并提出了加快制度创新,切实保障农民利益,发挥市场配置资源的基础性作用的若干建议.     

An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production

While agricultural production statistics are reported on a geopolitical – often national – basis we often need to know the status of production or productivity within specific sub-regions, watersheds, or agroecological zones. Such re-aggregations are typically made using expert judgments or simple area-weighting rules. We describe a new, entropy-based approach to making spatially disaggregated assessments of the distribution of crop production. Using this approach, tabular crop production statistics are blended judiciously with an array of other secondary data to assess the production of specific crops within individual ‘pixels’ – typically 25–100 square kilometers in size. The information utilized includes crop production statistics, farming system characteristics, satellite-derived land cover data, biophysical crop suitability assessments, and population density. An application is presented in which Brazilian state level production statistics are used to generate pixel level crop production data for eight crops. To validate the spatial allocation we aggregated the pixel estimates to obtain synthetic estimates of municipality level production in Brazil, and compared those estimates with actual municipality statistics. The approach produced extremely promising results. We then examined the robustness of these results compared to short-cut approaches to allocating crop production statistics and showed that, while computationally intensive, the cross-entropy method does provide more reliable estimates of crop production patterns.     

保水剂在京郊果园的应用试验研究

重点研究了果园施用保水剂后剖面土壤水分动态、果树耗水规律 ,探讨了保水剂作用下土壤水分对果树生长、果实生长发育、产量与品质的影响规律 ,同时对保水剂在山区果园的应用进行了经济可行性分析     

基于工况偏差在线计算的PHEV能量补偿控制方法

针对车辆真实工况与标准工况实时偏差导致的整车能量管理性能下降问题,提出一种基于工况偏差在线计算的插电式混合动力汽车(PHEV)能量补偿控制方法。根据车辆工况识别结果建立实际工况与标准工况之间偏差的数学表达式;以油电耗比为指标函数,构建能量管理系统控制偏差数学模型,给出工况偏差与控制偏差函数关系的离线建模方法;在此基础上,以工况偏差为输入,以控制偏差为被控对象,设计能量补偿模糊控制器,给出控制偏差的模糊控制规则和动力补偿分配权值。基于某控制策略对本文所提出的方法进行仿真验证,结果表明:所提出的能量分配补偿控制方法能够进一步降低整车燃油消耗,进而提升PHEV能量管理性能。     

西北地区水资源状况与合理配置问题的研究

水资源的高效开发利用与合理配置能够快速有效地促进经济社会多方面的发展,面对西北地区水资源配置的现状,急需加强多方面的保障措施建设.为此,针对西北地区水资源配置中存在的主要问题和突出矛盾,以发展的眼光来衡量区域水资源与人类社会的可持续发展,提出了相关的应对措施及其若干解决方法.     

基于信息融合技术的不精确可靠性数据的利用

讨论了在可靠性分析中不精确可靠性数据的利用。用模糊算法对来自同一母体的不同样本的各种资源的数据进行了融合 ,将几个同类型不同概率分布转化成一个模糊化分布。首先 ,将可靠性中常用分布的分布参数模糊化 ,推导出模糊参数的概率分布 ;其次 ,将来自不同信息源的各个分布相同参数的不同值综合成一个模糊数参数 ,用模糊化概率分布公式计算失效概率 ;最后 ,用一算例说明了该方法的用法。     

我国收入分配不合理现状的成因分析与对策思考

在今年“两会”上通过的“十一五”规划纲要中明确提出:“加快推进收入分配制度改革”和“更加注重社会公平”。表述中增加了“加快”和“更加”加以强调,于是,改革收入分配制度的紧迫性和重要性凸显出来。本论文就目前我国收入分配的基本现状以及产生收入分配不合理的成因展开论述,并就如何改善我国收入分配不合理的现状提出相应对策。     

棉花冠层叶面积的动态模拟

根据试验资料,在系统分析棉花冠层叶面积时空分布规律的基础上,充分考虑叶面积空间垂直分布的异质性,以生育期内累积的每日相对热效应为预报因子,构建了棉花叶面积垂直分布和叶面积指数的动态模拟模型。利用不同年份不同播期的试验资料对模型进行了验证,累积叶面积指数L（z）的模拟结果与1∶1直线之间的R^2和均方根误差分别为0.969和0.257,叶面积指数LAI的模拟结果与1∶1直线之间的R^2和均方根误差分别为0.936和0.305。结果说明模型具有较好的预测性和实用性。模型的模拟结果可作为冠层结构参数,用于冠层辐射传输模型和光合作用模型。