1991-2020年西藏春小麦生育期对气候变化的响应

为了解西藏春小麦物候期变化及其与气候变化的关系,利用1991-2020年西藏日喀则农业气象观测站观测的春小麦生育期和气象资料,采用线性回归、相关系数、Mann-Kendall等方法,分析了西藏春小麦生育期变化特征,并讨论了影响其变化的主导气象因子。结果表明,在1991-2020年期间,西藏春小麦生长季内降水量（Pr）、相对湿度（RH）和日照时数（S）表现为下降趋势,平均最低气温（T_min）升温率明显大于平均最高气温（T_max）升温率,平均气温（T_m）、≥0 ℃积温（∑T₀）和平均风速（Ws）均呈增加趋势。营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期的热量资源（T_m、T_max、T_min、∑T₀）和Ws都表现为增加趋势,S与RH趋于减少;Pr在营养生长期增多,在生殖生长期减少,在全生育期略有增加。春小麦所有生育时期都表现为推迟趋势,平均每10年推迟2.33～13.36 d,以乳熟期推迟最明显;播种-出苗、拔节-孕穗2个生育阶段天数对气候变化响应不明显,开花-乳熟期天数以11.03 d·10 a^-1的速度显著延长,其他生育阶段天数均呈减少趋势;营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期天数均呈减少趋势。除开花期外,其他生育时期都发生了推迟的气候突变,突变时间主要出现在21世纪前10年的中后期;只有三叶-分蘖、分蘖-拔节、开花-乳熟、乳熟-成熟4个生育阶段天数在21世纪初出现了气候突变。影响春小麦营养生长期、全生育期天数的主导因子是T_m,次要因子为∑T₀,而∑T₀却是影响生殖生长期天数的主导因子,T_m为次要因子。近30年西藏春小麦营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期天数减少,主要是因为T_m显著升高造成的。     

Modelling optimal timing and frequency of insecticide sprays for knockdown in preparation for other control measures

A modelling investigation was conducted into optimizing the number of sprays and inter-spray interval to reduce an insect population to a low level, for example, prior to pheromone trapping or the release of sterile males. The model population was age-structured and density-dependent. If spray mortality is 100% for each spray, then the ideal spraying schedule is easily determined from the durations of the various life stages. For spray mortality of less than 100%, a simulation was used to determine optimal spraying schedules. Relative length of the larval period, fertility rate and age to first oviposition were found to be the most important biotic parameters for this determination. Their importance is magnified as spray mortality decreases. The stage targeted by sprays and the percent mortality caused by each spray are also important in determining the required number of sprays. Using medfly (Ceratitis capitata Wiedmann) biotic parameters as an example when the spray targets adults, it appeared that neither the stage at which density-dependent mortality takes effect, nor the form of the adult survivorship curve are important in determining the optimal spray schedule.     

淀山湖湖水氮与叶绿素的时间格局转变研究

采用STARS（sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts）,以淀山湖湖水中TN、NH3-N、Chl-a和SD为指标,研究了淀山湖湖水氮与叶绿素在1991-2006年间的格局转变规律,分析了转变前后氮与叶绿素的格局特点。结果得出：1991-2006年间,淀山湖湖水中NH3-N和TN含量均存在两种格局,一次转变,发生转变的时间均在2000年;格局转变前NH3-N平均含量为0.649 mg•L-1,转变后为2.014 mg•L-1,是转变前的3.1倍;湖水TN的平均含量格局转变前为2.550 mg•L-1,转变后3.726 mg•L-1,是转变前的1.5倍。淀山湖湖水中Chl-a含量和SD也均存在两种格局,转变均发生在2001年。格局转变前湖水中Chl-a平均含量9.341ug•L-1,转变后19.713ug•L-1,是转变前的2.1倍;湖水SD在转变前平均62 cm,转变后降低为43 cm。2000年的格局转变指数（RSI）2.185,其中NH3-N的RSI 1.038,TN的1.147;2001年的RSI为1.341,其中Chl-a的0.318,SD的为1.023。     

Response of snails and slugs to fragmentation of lowland forests in NW Germany

Habitat fragmentation is a major cause for species loss, but its effect on invertebrates with low active dispersal power, like terrestrial gastropods, has rarely been studied. Such species can not cross a hostile habitat matrix, for which the predictions of island theory, such as positive relations between species richness and patch size, should apply. In order to test this prediction, we studied gastropod species diversity by assessing gastropod assemblage characteristics from 35 sites in 19 fragments of deciduous old-growth forests in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany. Assemblages differed between larger (≥700 ha) and smaller forests (<400 ha), those of large forests held a higher percentage of forest species. Although α-diversity was similar between the two forest size classes, small forests often comprised matrix species, resulting in a higher β-diversity. Edge effects on the species richness of matrix species were noticeable up to 250 m into the forest. Hierarchical partitioning revealed that distance to disturbances (external edge, internal edges like roads) explained most assemblage variables, whereas forest size and woodland cover within a 1 km radius from the sites explained only a few assemblage variables. Densities of two forest-associated species, Discus rotundatus and Arion fuscus, decreased with forest size. Yet, forest size was positively correlated with richness of typical forest species and densities of Limax cinereoniger. The latter species seems to need forests of >1,000 ha, i.e., well above the size of most fragments. In conclusion, the prediction is valid only for forest species. The response to fragmentation is species specific and seems to depend on habitat specialization and macroclimatic conditions. Jean-Pierre Maelfait: Deceased.     

未来气候变化情景下基于APSIM模型的黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植区域模拟

为探究气候变化对于黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植区域的影响,通过APSIM作物模型与降尺度气象数据集的耦合,模拟了RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下2020-2060、2061-2100年间黄土高原冬小麦的产量及其稳定性,并依据产量及其稳定性分析了黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植范围对于气候变化的响应。结果表明,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,当前黄土高原冬小麦种植范围内产量将显著提高。同时,除RCP 4.5情景的2020-2060年外,其余情景和时间段内黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植范围存在向北扩大趋势,且RCP 8.5情景下种植区域北扩的面积更大。在RCP 4.5情景下,2020-2060年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的46.8%,较1981-2010年平均值减少13 095 km~2;2061-2100年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的65.2%,较1981-2010年平均值增加101 763 km~2。在RCP 8.5情景下,2020-2060年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的56.4%,较1981-2010年平均值增加46 968 km~2;2061-2100年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的65.7%,较1981-2010年平均值增加107 671 km~2。     

不同灌水模式对小麦产量、形态和生理特性的影响

为了探寻快速筛选节水高产小麦品种的形态和生理指标,以黄淮冬麦区2003-2013国审或省审及两个对照品种共102份小麦品种为材料,设全生育期不灌水(T_0)、灌拔节水(T_1)、灌拔节+灌浆水(T_2)三种灌水模式,检测了不同灌水模式下小麦的产量、形态和生理特性及其关系。结果表明,T_1较T_0处理通过增加穗数和穗粒数提高产量,T_2较T_1处理通过增加粒重提高产量。T_1明显增加株高、旗叶的面积、周长、长和宽;T_2处理小幅增加株高,对旗叶形态影响年度间不一致。T_1和T_2处理明显增加冠层温差。T_1处理对灌浆后期小麦旗叶叶绿素含量影响年度间不一致,T_2处理提高叶绿素含量。T_0条件下,产量与冠层温差呈显著正相关;T_1条件下,产量与旗叶宽和冠层温差呈显著正相关;在T_2条件下,产量与旗叶宽、叶绿素含量和冠层温差呈显著正相关,与株高呈显著负相关。因此,冠层温差、旗叶宽和叶绿素含量可以用作筛选和鉴定相应灌水模式下节水高产小麦品种的形态或生理指标。     

From small-scale habitat loopholes to decadal cycles: a habitat-based hypothesis explaining fluctuation in pelagic fish populations off Peru

The Peru‐Humboldt Current system (HCS) supports the world's largest pelagic fisheries. Among the world's eastern boundary current systems, it is the most exposed to high climatic stress and is directly affected by El Niño and La Niña events. In this volatile ecosystem, fish have been led to develop adaptive strategies in space and time. In this paper, we attempt to understand the mechanisms underlying such strategies, focusing on the El Niño 1997–98 in Peru from which an extensive set of hydrographic, capture and acoustic survey data are available. An integrated analysis of the data is crucial, as each has substantial shortcomings individually; for example, both catch data and acoustic surveys may easily lead to wrong conclusions. Existing hypotheses on anchovy and sardine alternations lead us to a ‘habitat‐based’ synthetic hypothesis. Using our data, an integrated approach evaluated how fish responded to habitat variation, and determined the consequences in terms of fish‐population variability. Various factors occurring at a range of different spatio‐temporal scales were considered: interdecadal regime (warm ‘El Viejo’/cool ‘La Vieja’ decadal scale); strength and the duration of the El Niño Southern Oscillation event (interannual scale); population condition before the event (interannual scale); fishing pressure and other predation (annual scale); changes in reproductive behaviour (intra‐annual scale); presence of local upwelling (local scale). During El Niño 1997–98, anchovy was able to exploit a small‐scale temporal and spatial ‘loophole’ inside the general unfavourable conditions. Moreover, sardine did not do better than anchovy during this El Niño and was not able to take advantage of the ‘loophole’ opened by this short‐term event. Our results question the traditional view that El Niño is bad for anchovy and good for sardine.     

未来中高排放情景下松嫩平原农业气候资源变化分析

基于松嫩平原地区基准时段（1961−1990年）的观测数据,应用统计方法对模型模拟的未来30a(2021−2050年)温度、降水、辐射的逐日数据进行偏差订正,同时采用五日滑动平均法计算≥10℃积温,分析研究区域相对于基准时段,未来30a农业气候资源指标的时空变化特征。结果表明：在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下,未来30a松嫩平原大部分地区平均温度在4～8℃,较基准时段升高2.5～2.8℃,且北部地区的增温幅度大于南部地区;此外,大部分地区≥10℃积温介于3000～3700℃·d,两种情景下分别增加500～550℃·d和600～670℃·d,其中南部部分地区增幅超过670℃·d;大部分地区年降水量在460～580mm,增量为50～90mm不等,降水增量在空间分布上表现为南多北少,其中南部地区增量超过90mm,而北部地区年增量则不足50mm,两种情景在相同区域的降水增量表现为RCP4.5多于RCP8.5;相较于基准时段,年辐射量减少85～100MJ·m−2,生长季内辐射量减少10～40MJ·m−2,变化趋势均不明显。综上所述,未来松嫩平原地区农业气候资源表现为整体提升趋势,农作物可种植期相对延长,因此,应适当种植生育期更长的作物,避免因未来气温升高,造成现有作物生育期缩短,导致产量降低的情况发生;同时研究结果对调整种植结构、改变种植措施和选育作物品种等具有指导意义,有利于充分利用气候资源,提高作物产量。     

不同气候条件下潮土微生物群落的变化

针对气候变化的背景研究农田土壤微生物对气候变化的响应机制是调控农田土壤养分循环的理论基础。本研究基于设置在3个气候带(冷温带海伦、暖温带封丘和中亚热带鹰潭)的潮土移置试验,利用磷脂脂肪酸(PLFA)分析方法研究了移置第6年土壤微生物群落的变化特征。结果表明,在3种气候条件下潮土移置6年后土壤部分理化性质显著变化,土壤有机质含量表现为冷温带最高而中亚热带最低;在种植玉米的不同施肥处理中,土壤中微生物总PLFAs、革兰氏阳性细菌(G+)、革兰氏阴性细菌(G-)、细菌和放线菌PLFAs含量均表现为海伦封丘鹰潭,真菌/细菌比值在冷温带最低;PLFA图谱的主成分分析显示气候条件显著影响了土壤微生物的群落结构,海伦和封丘位于PC1正轴,而鹰潭位于负轴,受气候影响较大的特征PLFA包括18:1ω7c、16:1ω5c、16:0、18:0和18:2ω6,9c;逐步回归分析显示温度、降雨和土壤有机质是影响微生物群落的主要因子。总体上,气候条件的变化在短期内(6年)改变了土壤微生物的群落结构,可以影响农田生态系统的生物地球化学循环。     

基于气候生产潜力的云南人粮关系及其未来变化

基于云南117个气象站1961?2015年观测实况及全球气候模式模拟的2016?2055年年平均气温、降水量数据,使用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算并分析云南各地气候生产潜力（Tspv）的时空变化特征,构建并计算Tspv的人口承载力（Tspv-人口承载力）和气候承载力指数。结果表明：（1）云南Tspv呈现明显的纬向分布及垂直分布特征,总体表现为南部高于北部,低海拔地区高于高海拔地区,降水是云南Tspv主要限制因子;（2）1961-2015年全省Tspv仅滇西的部分地区显著增加,滇中局部等地显著减少,其余地区变化不显著,全省平均Tspv年际波动大,在2009年前后发生突变;（3）2006-2015年云南人均粮食供应稳定增长,接近或超过小康型粮食需求,耕地的人口承载力（耕地,人口承载力）逐年增加,但远低于Tspv-人口承载力,即使在极端减产年,Tspv-人口承载力水平仍能满足当前人口、耕地规模下富裕型粮食需求,人粮关系状态为盈余;（4）如果保持现有稳定的人口、耕地及生产力水平增幅,未来不同的排放情景下,云南Tspv及Tspv-人口承载力都将稳定增加,人粮关系状态以粮食盈余为主,且高排放情景下承载力和人粮关系状态水平均优于低排放情景。