中国边境9省(区)城镇化与乡村振兴的耦合协调与影响因素

[目的] 探讨中国边境9省（区）城镇化与乡村振兴两大战略系统的协调发展关系与影响因素,为统筹边境地区城乡发展与促进国土安全提供科学依据。[方法] 构建城镇化与乡村振兴的指标综合评价体系,采取耦合协调度模型、灰色关联度模型分析中国边境9省（区）2008—2018年两大系统的耦合协调关系及影响因素。[结果] ①2008—2018年中国边境地区城镇化指数呈波动上升态势,总体上土地城镇化高于人口城镇化。②乡村振兴整体指数由2008年的0.273上升至2018年的0.756,边境城乡统筹推进力度加大,省域乡村发展差距不断在缩小。③城镇化与乡村振兴的协调程度由中度协调向高度协调转变,按照两系统的协调程度情况将边境9省（区）划分为优化提升型、调整进步型与重点突破型。④中国边境9省（区）城镇化与乡村振兴两大系统的协调发展是各种内外部力量交织作用下的结果,其中政府决策起到关键引导作用,互联互通扮演“催化剂”角色,产业结构提供重要内生“造血”力量,经济发展与人口迁移具有外部“输血”作用。[结论] 应从建立健全城乡融合发展机制、分区分级分类制定发展战略、构建跨区域协同发展新格局和激活创新驱动内生发展动力等方面促进中国边境9省（区）城镇化与乡村振兴协调发展。     

后金融危机时代中小企业财务危机预警管理

2008年的全球性金融危机给我国中小企业带来了巨大的冲击,绝大多数中小企业陷入了财务困境,甚至破产倒闭。在后金融危机时代,我们应该吸取经验教训,提高中小企业财务危机意识,加强财务危机的预警,防患于未然,因此建立中小企业财务危机预警模型成为刻不容缓的任务之一。文章尝试在传统的基于功效系数法下构建的中小企业财务危机预警模型中加入了关键性的非财务指标,试图通过定量与定性指标的结合,以期增加模型的全面性与准确性。     

Insulin sensitivity and glucose dynamics during pre-weaning foal development and in response to maternal diet composition

Nutritional management of animals during pregnancy can affect glucose and insulin dynamics in the resulting offspring through influences on fetal development. Additionally, high starch feeding in mature horses is associated with reduced insulin sensitivity and an increased risk for diseases such as obesity and laminitis. However, no study has yet evaluated the effect of feeding a high starch diet to pregnant mares on glucose and insulin dynamics in their offspring. Twenty late-gestation mares maintained on pasture were provided two-thirds of digestible energy requirements from isocaloric, isonitrogenous low starch (LS, n = 10) or high starch (HS, n = 10) feed. Their foals were assessed with an insulin-modified frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test at 5, 40, 80, and 160 d of age. Baseline glucose concentrations, insulin sensitivity, and insulin-independent glucose clearance in 5-d foals were all greater than values observed in mature horses and declined towards mature values as foals reached 160 d of age. Baseline glucose concentrations were all within normal range, but higher in foals born from HS mares through 80 d of age. Insulin sensitivity was not different between dietary groups until a trend for lower insulin sensitivity in HS foals emerged at 160 d of age. These data are the first to characterize decreasing insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance in Thoroughbred foals from 5 to 160 d of age. This study also presents the first data examining glucose and insulin dynamics in developing foals in response to maternal high starch diet.     

烦夜蛾幼虫在甘薯田的空间分布及其抽样技术

为了掌握烦夜蛾幼虫在甘薯田的空间分布和种群特征,2015年对不同发生密度田块进行了调查,取得8组样本资料,采用6个聚集度指标和Iwao的m*-m回归分析法、Taylor的幂法则等,对其空间分布型和田间理论抽样数进行测定和分析。结果表明:烦夜蛾幼虫在甘薯田间呈聚集分布,聚集强度随着幼虫密度的增加而增大。环境因子是导致烦夜蛾幼虫聚集分布的主要原因。在此基础上,建立了幼虫虫口密度调查的最适理论抽样数公式N=1.96~2/D~2(1.3102/m+0.6255)和序贯抽样模型T_n=1.3102/(D~2-0.6255/n)。     

神经网络对马尾松蛀干类害虫数量的混沌识别

[目的]检测马尾松蛀干类害虫2006～2010年,林间种群数量是否具有混沌特性。[方法]利用前馈神经网络分析马尾松蛀干类害虫林间种群数量的复杂性动态。[结果]前馈网络模型估计的最大Lyapunov指数为0.0128,说明马尾松蛀干类害虫林间种群序列存在混沌现象。[结论]马尾松蛀干类害虫的数量与前一次或前几次观测值密切相关,可用重构相空间的方法预测下一次观测值。     

Soil texture affects the conversion factor of electrical conductivity from 1:5 soil-water to saturated paste extracts

Electrical conductivity(EC) of soil-water extracts is commonly used to assess soil salinity. However, its conversion to the EC of saturated soil paste extracts(ECe), the standard measure of soil salinity, is currently required for practical applications. Although many regression models can be used to obtain ECe from the EC of soil-water extracts, the application of a site-specific model to different sites is not straightforward due to confounding soil factors such as soil texture. This study was...     

贝加尔针茅＋线叶菊草地退化系列的定量划分和动态模型的建立

对贝加尔针茅(Stipa baicalensis) 线叶菊(Filifolium sibiricum)草地中贝加尔针茅、麻花头(Serratula centauroides)、日荫菅(Carex pediformis)和菊叶委陵菜(Potentilla tanacetifolia)4种主要植物的盖度、频度和植被指数进行了分析.结果表明: ①通过SPSS的聚类分析,实验区草地可以划分为3个草地退化系列,即轻度退化、中度退化、重度退化;②随草地退化程度的增强,贝加尔针茅的盖度、频度和指数表现出降低的趋势,麻花头与日荫菅的盖度、频度和植被指数表现出先增加后降低的趋势,而菊叶委陵菜盖度、频度和植被指数则表现出增加的趋势;③轻度退化、中度退化、重度退化3个不同退化系列的草地变化可通过 Y1=0.020 5X1 0.003 9X2 - 0.003 2X3 0.003 9X4 - 47.245 6;Y2=0.005 4X1 0.005 2X2-0.003 4X3 0.011 9X4-16.734 1;Y3=0.002 2X1 0.003 5X2-0.001 6X3 0.004 6X4-3.854 8(其中,Y表示最终的变化值,X1,X2,X3,X4分别表示草地最优状态时贝加尔针茅、麻花头、日荫菅和菊叶委陵菜4种植物的指数)来反映.     

田阳县水稻纹枯病病情指数与病株率关系数学模型的初步研究

依据田阳县2002—2012年水稻纹枯病观测田的病情系统调查记载表数据,采用分层随机抽样法抽取100对数据,构建了病情指数y与病株率x数学预测模型y=0．2919x-0．1478（％,0〈x〈20）,应用于预测预报时可减少调查工作量,提高工作效率。     

肉鸡生产系统的DYNAMO模型建立

根据系统动力学的理论,借助PD plus软件,在对肉鸡生产系统的分析基础上,对肉鸡生产的微机化研究作了初步探讨。重点是肉鸡生产系统辨识和系统反馈结构流图的绘制,因为建立模型的立足点在于肉鸡生产规模的变化是一个动态非平衡过程,这个过程是由其内在的反馈结构所决定。最后,从模型的内、外部作了可信度检验。