基于APSIM模型光照与CO2对小麦的影响机制

为了探索光照强度与CO2浓度对小麦（Triticum aestivum）产量形成的影响,运用验证后的APSIM模型模拟不同光照强度与CO2浓度下的小麦产量,并采用多元回归分析法分析其对小麦产量的影响机制。结果表明,在相同的CO2浓度条件下,小麦产量随光照强度的增加而明显下降,日光照强度每升高0.5 MJm-2,最大减产幅度高达17.16%,平均减产9.40%。相同光照条件下,CO2浓度每升高100 molmol-1,平均增产11.27%,最大增产可达到22.08%。CO2浓度与光照强度之间存在负交互效应。表明在研究区光照已完全满足旱地春小麦产量的需求。     

Modelling the fate of water and nitrogen in the mixed vegetable farming systems of northern Tasmania, Australia

A combination of high input management systems, high annual rainfall and deep, permeable soils in northern Tasmania create conditions that are conducive to high drainage and nitrogen losses below the root zone. An understanding of the extent and mechanism of such losses will enable farm managers and their consultants to identify and implement more sustainable management practices that minimise potential adverse financial and environmental consequences. Analysing the fate of water and nutrients in farming systems is complex and influenced by a wide range of factors including management, soil characteristics, seasonal climate variability and management history of the paddock/farm in question. This paper describes a novel farm system modelling approach based on the model APSIM, for analysing the fate of nitrogen and water in mixed vegetable-based farming enterprises. The study was based on seven case farms across the Panatana catchment in northern Tasmania. Substantial simulated drainage losses (>100 mm average seasonal loss) were apparent for all crop and rotation elements across all farms in response to the surplus between crop water supply and crop water use. Crop nitrogen demand was found to be close to crop nitrogen supply for all crop and pasture rotation elements with the exception of potato, which had an average surplus nitrogen supply of 89 kg N/ha. This resulted in potato having much higher nitrate nitrogen leaching losses (32 kg N/ha) compared to other crops (<10 kg N/ha). Simulations suggest that practicable management options such as deficit-based irrigation and reduced N fertiliser rates will maintain current levels of productivity while reducing potential offsite N loss and generating significant financial savings via reduced input costs.     

A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems

We present a participatory modelling framework that integrates information from interviews and discussions with farmers and consultants, with dynamic bio-economic models to answer complex questions on the allocation of limited resources at the farm business level. Interviews and discussions with farmers were used to: describe the farm business; identify relevant research questions; identify potential solutions; and discuss and learn from the whole-farm simulations. The simulations are done using a whole-farm, multi-field configuration of APSIM (APSFarm). APSFarm results were validated against farmers’ experience. Once the model was accepted by the participating farmers as a fair representation of their farm business, the model was used to explore changes in the tactical or strategic management of the farm and results were then discussed to identify feasible options for improvement.Here we describe the modelling framework and present an example of the application of integrative whole farm system tools to answer relevant questions from an irrigated farm business case study near Dalby (151.27E - 27.17S), Queensland, Australia. Results indicated that even though cotton crops generates more farm income per hectare a more diversified rotation with less cotton would be relatively more profitable, with no increase in risk, as a more cotton dominated traditional rotation. Results are discussed in terms of the benefits and constraints from developing and applying more integrative approaches to represent farm businesses and their management in participatory research projects with the aim of designing more profitable and sustainable irrigated farming systems.     

Benefits of increased soil exploration by wheat roots

Increased subsoil water extraction by wheat roots enhanced through management or breeding can increase yield, but the benefits depend on the seasonal pattern of water availability as influenced by rainfall distribution, soil type and management. We used a well validated crop simulation model to assess the wheat yield benefits arising from 20% faster root descent and/or more effective water extraction in the subsoil (>0.6 m) under different management scenarios. The analysis was conducted in Mediterranean, temperate equi-seasonal and subtropical Australian wheat-growing environments on deep sand, loam and deep clay soils, respectively.Overall mean yield benefits of 0.3-0.4 t ha⁻¹ were predicted from the combination of faster descent and more efficient roots at all sites and yield reductions were rare, although considerable seasonal and site variation in yield benefits was evident (range in benefits −0.1 to 1.4 t ha⁻¹). In general, faster root descent provided less separate benefit to water uptake and yield (up to 9 mm and 0.1 t ha⁻¹) than more efficient subsoil extraction (up to 21 mm and 0.3 t ha⁻¹), especially for optimal sowing dates, although late-sown crops on deep sands were an exception. At all sites, the yield impacts of preceding management (0.5 to 1.8 t ha⁻¹) and sowing date (0.1 to 0.9 t ha⁻¹) were more consistent and often exceeded or overrode those of root modification by influencing the depth of profile wetting and duration of root descent. For example there was little benefit (<0.1 t ha⁻¹) of modified roots following lucerne compared to an annual crop at most sites as the soils rewet below 1 m less frequently. The study provides insights for targeting those environments and management scenarios for which the largest yield benefits will arise from investments to improve wheat root systems.     

旱地春小麦产量对逐日最低温度和最高温度变化响应的模拟与分析

为了探索气温波动对旱地春小麦产量的影响, 对逐日最低温度和最高温度2个因素进行了9种水平的交叉组合设计, 应用APSIM(Agricultural Production System Simulator)模型模拟各种情况下春小麦产量, 采用二次多项回归、单因素边际效应分析和通径分析研究春小麦产量对逐日最低温度和最高温度变化的响应。结果表明: 当最高温度不变时, 最低温度每升高0.25 ℃, 最大增产1.40%, 平均增产1.34%, 最低温度升高对春小麦产量的影响为正效应; 当最低温度不变时, 最高温度每增加0.25 ℃, 最大减产2.88%, 平均减产2.42%, 最高温度升高对春小麦产量的影响为负效应, 产量随最高温度的升高呈二次抛物线下降变化; 最低温度和最高温度之间存在负的协同效应, 最高温度升高造成春小麦的减产效应超过最低温度升高的增产效应。平均温度的升高引起春小麦减产, 主要是由最高温度的升高引起的。     

Development of an algorithm for relating pasture nitrogen status to yield response curves

Determination of optimum nitrogen (N) fertilization rates which maximize pasture growth is challenging due to variability in plant requirements and likely near‐future supply of N by the soil. Remote sensing can be used for mapping N nutrition status of plants and to rapidly assess the spatial variability within a field. An algorithm is, however, lacking which relates the N status of the plants to the expected yield response to additions of N. An algorithm was developed based on a simulation study carried out using the APSIM model. Simulations were performed for an irrigated ryegrass pasture in Canterbury, New Zealand. Nitrogen fertilizer was applied monthly at different rates, ranging from 0 to 150 kg N/ha. To obtain a range of different pasture N contents, a total of 1456 different fertilization rules were set up and evaluated over 20 different years of weather giving 29,120 combinations of pasture herbage N contents and growth responses for each month. The analysis focused on November (spring), a month with generally vigorous growth. A three‐dimensional surface response function, based on the Mitscherlich yield response function, was developed. This function was used to determine required N fertilization rates, which achieve 90% of the maximum yield, based on the antecedent pasture N content. At low pasture herbage N contents (25 g/kg), the required fertilization rate was estimated as 130 kg N/ha, whereas at N contents of 40 g/kg, only 60 kg N/ha was required to obtain the same yield, reflecting the much higher supply of N by the soil.     

北方地区不同等级干旱对春玉米产量影响

北方地区是中国主要的玉米种植区,在中国玉米总产和播种面积中占有较大比例,同时也是中国易发生干旱的地区,北方地区干旱常态化严重制约着该地区玉米的稳定发展。该文基于北方地区14个省(市、自治区)217个气象台站1961-2010年的逐日气象数据以及作物、土壤和田间管理资料,依据春玉米生长季内降水量并以100 mm为间隔将全区划分为6个区域(Ⅰ~Ⅵ),选取作物水分亏缺指数为农业干旱指标,基于验证后的农业生产系统模型(agricultural production systems simulator,APSIM),明确了各生育阶段不同等级干旱对春玉米产量的影响。研究结果表明,北方地区干旱造成春玉米减产率在空间上呈由西向东下降趋势,降水的空间分布直接导致了灾损程度在各区的差异,其中西部灌溉绿洲农业区雨养种植春玉米干旱风险非常大,需大力发展节水灌溉,而东部雨养农业区自然降水已基本满足春玉米生长发育需要,干旱对春玉米产量影响较小,在模拟过程中很难准确的反映出旱级对产量造成的差异影响。春玉米在拔节—抽雄阶段发生干旱会对产量造成比较严重的影响,该阶段4个等级干旱造成春玉米减产率的四分位区间分别为特旱(20.1%~33.6%)、重旱(12.0%~20.3%)、中旱(6.3%~15.2%)、轻旱(4.7%~11.6%)。     

基于APSIM的华北平原不同种植模式下主要温室气体排放效应评估

使用APSIM作物模型,模拟1981−2014年华北平原夏玉米、冬小麦−夏玉米、冬小麦−夏玉米−早播玉米1（提前10d）、冬小麦−夏玉米−早播玉米2（提前20d）四种种植模式下土壤有机碳（SOC）变化、土壤氧化亚氮（N₂O）排放、土壤温室气体排放和产量的变化。结果表明：四种种植模式中,1981−2014年华北平原夏玉米种植模式下土壤N₂O排放量最小（514.81kg·hm⁻²）、土壤主要温室气体平均排放量最少（0.30MgCO_2-eq·hm⁻²）;冬小麦−夏玉米−早播玉米1（提前10d）种植模式下土壤有机碳平均变化量最少,为120.78kg·hm⁻²;冬小麦−夏玉米−早播玉米2（提前20d）种植模式的土壤主要温室气体平均排放量次之,为0.76MgCO_2-eq·hm⁻²;四种种植模式中,冬小麦−夏玉米种植模式的平均产量最高,为23405.47kg·hm⁻²;夏玉米种植模式下土壤主要温室气体排放效应最好（GHG=0.02 MgCO_2-eq·hm⁻²）,冬小麦−夏玉米−早播玉米2（提前20d）种植模式次之（GHG=0.04 MgCO_2-eq·hm⁻²）;在保证产量的前提下,考虑粮食安全、资源节约和环境友好各方面,冬小麦−夏玉米−早播玉米2（提前20d）两年三熟种植模式是华北平原较为理想的种植制度。     

基于APSIM模型的灌溉降低冬小麦产量风险研究

华北平原是我国冬小麦主产区,干旱是影响该地区冬小麦产量稳定的最主要的灾害之一。进行产量风险评估以及如何通过灌溉降低干旱产量风险对于该地区冬小麦稳产高产具有重要的现实意义。该文利用澳大利亚的APSIM农业生产系统模拟模型,以华北平原北京和山东禹城为例,分析了不同降水年型条件下冬小麦的产量风险;通过不同灌溉方案的设计和模拟,分析了不同的灌溉方案在各种年型条件下对降低冬小麦产量风险的作用。结果表明：北京和禹城地区冬小麦生育期内绝大部分年份降水不能满足作物的需水,严重缺水年型出现的频率均在30%左右,两地该年型的平均产量仅为2 445和2 466 kg/hm2,产量风险较高。灌溉对于降低产量风险具有明显的作用,但需根据不同的缺水年型选择适宜的灌溉方案。在兼顾冬小麦稳产高产和提高水分利用效率的前提下,严重和中度缺水年型进行3次补充灌溉,分别为底墒水、拔节水和开花水,而在轻度缺水年型条件下,底墒水和拔节水两次灌溉即可大大降低干旱带来的产量风险,灌水定额为50～70 mm,且随缺水程度的降低和灌溉次数的增加,可以适当减小灌水定额。     

基于APSIM的旱地小麦叶面积指数模拟模型构建

为了解旱地小麦叶片生长规律,建立基于APSIM的小麦叶面积潜在生长率模型和叶面积水、氮协同生长率模型,并在田间试验修订参数的基础上,连接到APSIM平台,模拟小麦叶面积指数动态变化过程,采用相关性分析方法定量分析小麦叶面积指数的变化规律。结果表明：基于APSIM的小麦叶面积潜在生长率模型和叶面积水、氮协同生长率模型对旱地小麦生长指标LAI的模拟有较高精度。小麦全生育期内叶面积指数模拟值与实测值呈显著正相关,相关系数(R)为0.996,归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)范围在3.08%～9.38%,模型有效性指数(M_E)为0.594～0.956,均大于0.5。