水产品收购价格预测的时序组合模型研究

我国水产品市场已经出现了区域性、结构性的供大于求及价格持续下降的现象。为此，对水产品价格进行预测是必要的。以1978～1999年数据为样本，利用时序组合模型对2000年的水产品收购价格进行了预测研究。     

变截面板簧轧机电液伺服系统性能分析

设计了变截面板簧轧机电液伺服系统,该系统采用了工控机和PLC组成的两级计算机控制方式。建立了由电液伺服阀、伺服液压缸和轧辊组成的伺服控制系统数学模型。在分析系统的稳态性能和动态性能基础上,采用PID校正方式,进一步增大了系统的剪切频率,缩短了调节时间,降低了稳态误差。结果表明轧机电液伺服系统的稳定性好、控制精度高,达到了设计目的。     

木荷幼苗在林窗不同生境中的形态响应与生物量分配

对从林窗边缘到林窗中央环境梯度上3种不同生境的木荷幼苗的主要形态因子和生物量进行了测定,结果表明,3种生境下木荷幼苗的形态数量指标表现出极显著的差异,从林窗边缘到林窗中央,随着光照等环境条件的改善,其生长量和生物量逐渐增加。生物量的分配格局基本相似,但叶和主茎生物量表现出显著的差异,林窗边缘处,木荷幼苗将生物量相对多地分配到地上叶构件上,林窗中央处,则相对多地分配到地上主茎上。研究显示,木荷幼苗具有喜光能耐阴的特性。运用非线性幂函数拟合了不同生境木荷幼苗生物量模型,回归模型较好地反映了生物量随苗高、地径的变化趋势,可作为环境条件类似的木荷幼苗生物量预测的依据。     

基于粒子群算法优化BP神经网络的土壤含水量短期预测模型

为提高土壤含水量预测精度,基于物联网监测数据,提出了粒子群算法(PSO)优化BP神经网络的土壤含水量预测方法。首先应用主成分分析法筛选出影响土壤含水量的关键影响因子,然后构建8-5-1的BP神经网络拓扑结构,应用粒子群算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值。结果表明:与传统BP神经网络相比,新模型优化了网络结构,避免了陷入局部最优解,具有良好的预测效果;模型的评价指标平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分误差、误差均方根分别为0.259 2、0.010 5和0.135 6,与单一BP神经网络相比,预测精度更高,可满足实际的土壤含水量预测的需要。     

互联网背景下的食用菌产业现状和机遇及发展对策

介绍了我国互联网发展背景下食用菌产业发展现状,给出了食用菌产业在转变经济发展方式中所面临的问题和困难,并对整个产业发展的源动力和发展路径进行了分析。在此基础上,采用数学模型对食用菌的物流成本进行了核算;在互联网飞速发展的条件下,食用菌产业可以尝试订单生产模式等一些新型的商业来积极寻求转型升级,整合互联网资源,共同应对机遇和挑战,从而达到合作共赢、共同发展的目标。     

Improving wood volume predictions in dry tropical forest in the semi-arid Brazil

The volumetric variability of dry tropical forests in Brazil and the scarcity of studies on the subject show the need for the development of techniques that make it possible to obtain adequate and accurate wood volume estimates. In this study, we analyzed a database of thinning trees from a forest management plan in the Contendas de Sincorá National Forest, southwestern Bahia State, Brazil. The data set included a total of 300 trees with a trunk diameter ranging from 5 to 52 cm. Adjustments, validation and statistical selection of four volumetric models were performed. Due to the difference in height values for the same diameter and the low correlation between both variables, we do not suggest models which only use the diameter at breast height (DBH) variable as a predictor because they accommodate the largest estimation errors. In comparing the best single entry model (Hohenald-Krenn) with the Spurr model (best fit model), it is noted that the exclusion of height as a predictor causes the values of 136.44 and 0.93 for Akaike information criterion (AIC) and adjusted determination coefficient (R2 adj), which are poorer than the second best model (Schumacher-Hall). Regarding the minimum sample size, errors in estimation (root mean square error (RMSE) and bias) of the best model decrease as the sample size increases, especially when a larger number of trees with DBH≥15.0 cm are randomly sampled. Stratified sampling by diameter class produces smaller volume prediction errors than random sampling, especially when considering all trees. In summary, the Spurr and Schumacher-Hall models perform better. These models suggest that the total variance explained in the estimates is not less than 95%, producing reliable forecasts of the total volume with shell. Our estimates indicate that the bias around the average is not greater than 7%. Our results support the decision to use regression methods to build models and estimate their parameters, seeking stratification strategies in diameter classes for the sample trees. Volume estimates with valid confidence intervals can be obtained using the Spurr model for the studied dry forest. Stratified sampling of the data set for model adjustment and selection is necessary, since we find significant results with mean error square root values and bias of up to 70% of the total database.     

泥石流多发区土地荒漠化程度模糊综合评判研究

根据对小江流域泥石流沟谷土地荒漠化影响因子的分析和筛选,选择切割密度、土壤有机质、泥石流堆积物面积、植被盖度等8个对土地荒漠化有较大影响的因子,从地貌、土壤、植被三方面建立层次分析模型。针对土地景观生态系统的复杂性和模糊性,在建立评价指标体系的基础上,采用模糊综合评判的方法,对土地荒漠化程度进行了定量评价。     

Generation of a uniform thymic malignant lymphoma model with C57BL/6J p53 gene deficient mice

Lymphoma is the third most common cancer diagnosed in children, and T-cell lymphoma has the worst prognosis based on clinical observations. To date, a lymphoma model with uniform penetrance has not yet been developed. In this study, we generated a p53 deficient mouse model by targeting embryonic stem cells derived from a C57BL/6J mouse strain. Homozygous p53 deficient mice exhibited a higher rate of spontaneous tumorigenesis, with a high spontaneous occurrence rate (93.3%) of malignant lymphoma. Because tumor models with high phenotypic consistency are currently needed, we generated a lymphoma model by a single intraperitoneal injection of 37.5 or 75 mg/kg N-methyl-N-nitrosourea to p53 deficient mice. Lymphoma and retinal degeneration occurred in 100% of p53^+/− mice administered with higher concentrations of N-methyl-N-nitrosourea, a much greater response than those of previously reported models. The main anatomic sites of lymphoma were the thymus, spleen, bone marrow, and lymph nodes. Both induced and spontaneous lymphomas in the thymus and spleen stained positive for CD3 antigen, and flow cytometry detected positive CD4 and/or CD8 cells. Based on our observations and previous data, we hypothesize that mice with a B6 background are prone to lymphomagenesis.     

Rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence: seed source and spatial pattern

A programme of field trials for the study of the winter barley–Rhynchosporium commune pathosystem is reported. The associated seedborne disease rhynchosporium leaf scald is regarded as having an important impact on barley yields. The analysis in this study relates to the impact of the seed source (commercial or farm-saved seed) on disease incidence and to the spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence. Disease incidence data were calculated from field data recorded as disease severity. Mean disease incidence was higher in the crops grown from farm-saved seed than in those grown from commercial seed, although great agronomic significance cannot be attached to this result. The spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence was characterized in terms of the binary power law (BPL) and was indicative of an aggregated pattern. Programme-wide BPL results were described using a novel phytopathological application of a random coefficients model. These results have application in field sampling for rhynchosporium leaf scald disease.     

基于光合有效辐射瞬时值估算日均值的方法

光合有效辐射是太阳辐射的一部分,是植被进行光合作用和陆地生态系统碳循环的核心因素,对估算植被生产力具有重要影响。本文基于SURFRAD多年观测数据,建立了一个线性回归模型,由上午、下午瞬时光合有效辐射值估算日均值。该模型模拟效果较好,单个观测站的均方误差低于9 W·m^-2,判定系数不低于0.96,并适用于不同经纬度、气候条件和海拔高度下的区域,总的均方误差为8.863 1 W·m^-2,判定系数R2为0.977,表明该模型和方法有较好的可行性和可靠性。