柑橘黄龙病疫情运动规律与预警模型研究

为了揭示柑橘黄龙病整体疫情入侵、扩散、流行等运动规律,对柑橘木虱种群的数量消长情况进行多年多点的系统监测,同时在柑橘黄龙病果实显症期采用全境式普查方法开展疫情调查。2002-2010年连续8年的监测和普查结果表明,柑橘黄龙病疫情入侵分布呈南重北轻、东高西低的特征,其扩散趋势为自南而北逐年推进,并呈螺旋式上升。疫情长期运动一般需经历入侵上升、高位运行、受控回落周期性变化,其运动周期为10年左右,并建立时序运动模型: P=-00044N2+0056N －00698(n=9,r=09552**,r001=07977)。应用上述模型进行逐年修补,若预测下年度果园加权发病率在1%以上,则可发布预警。     

中国罗非鱼养殖产业发展及市场前景

罗非鱼是联合国粮农组织极力推荐的养殖品种,20世纪50年代被移植于中国,历经试验养殖阶段（1957 ～1980年）、规模养殖阶段（1981 ～1990年）和全面养殖阶段（1991年至今）,如今已发展成规模性养殖产业.罗非鱼淡水养殖区域几乎遍及全国,主要产区为广东、海南和广西.进入21世纪,海外对罗非鱼的需求非常旺盛,为中国罗非鱼产业创造了必要的市场条件,加之国内内陆省份的广域性需求,罗非鱼养殖产业已成为很有“钱”途的养殖业,其市场前景非常广阔.     

用VB编程实现区域自动气象站数据传输监控

介绍地市级区域自动站数据传输监控方法,出现数据传输故障自动报警,并提醒业务技术人员及时排除故障,保障区域自动站数据传输的正常运行,保证气象资料的连续性和完整性;通过对站点数据传输故障日志记录的分析,为维护人员判断自动站故障提供帮助。     

沙尘天气对兰州市城区环境空气质量影响研究

以2013年3月8 ～15日兰州市发生的系统性沙尘天气为例,分析了兰州市PM10、TSP以及能见度等污染物及气象因子对兰州市城区环境空气质量的影响.结果表明,此次沙尘天气甘肃始发地在河西走廊酒泉地区,主要受强冷空气影响,沙尘在风力影响下远距离输送,8日17：00在酒泉市发生时,大气最低能见度3.4 km,可吸入颗粒物最大浓度14.74 mg/m3,23：00影响到兰州等地,对甘肃省大部分地区影响较大,尤其对兰州市环境空气质量影响较大;受沙尘天气的影响,8 ～15日兰州市环境空气质量7d为重污染,1d为中度污染,首要污染物为可吸入颗粒物;能见度和可吸入颗粒物有明显的的负相关关系,湿度对能见度和颗粒物浓度的拟合存在影响.     

新疆夏季行星边界层参数化方案模拟特征研究

行星边界层参数化方案(PBL)对天气气候和大气环境的模拟与预报具有重要影响.通过基于单柱模式(SCM)的乌鲁木齐单点理想实验,以及新疆2019年8月15—18日的一次降水天气过程的模拟检验及诊断分析,研究了YSU、ACM2、BOULAC、GBM、MYJ和QNSE 6种常用的PBL参数化方案模拟的大气比湿、位温等气象要素...     

人口发展与城市化水平预测——以乌兰察布市为例

科学预测人口城市化水平,对相关政策的制定、制度的改革、城市配套设施的建设以及解决就业问题都具有重要意义。本文以乌兰察布市为例,对地区总人口进行预测的基础之上,运用劳动力结构模型、劳动力地域转移模型等多种数学模型,预测了城镇人口城市化水平和非农业人口的城市化水平。最后,选取与城市化相关的七项指标,对城市化水平进行了综合预测。     

Prediction of daily reference evapotranspiration by a multiple regression method based on weather forecast data

Prediction of daily reference evapotranspiration (ET ₀) is the basis of real-time irrigation scheduling. A multiple regression method for ET ₀ prediction based on its seasonal variation pattern and public weather forecast data was presented for application in East China. The forecasted maximum temperature (T _max), minimum temperature (T _min) and weather condition index (WCI) were adopted to calculate the correction coefficient by multilinear regression under five time-division regimes (10 days, monthly, seasonal, semi-annual and annual). The multiple regression method was tested for its feasibility for ET ₀ prediction using forecasted weather data as the input, and the monthly regime was selected as the most suitable. Average absolute error (AAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.395 and 0.522 mm d^?1, respectively. ET ₀ prediction errors increased linearly with the increase in temperature prediction error. A temperature error within 3 K is likely to result in acceptable ET ₀ predictions, with AAE and average absolute relative error (AARE) <0.142 mm d^?1 and 5.8%, respectively. However, one rank error in WCI results in a much larger error in ET ₀ prediction due to the high sensitivity of the correction coefficient to WCI and the large relative error in WCI caused by one rank deviation. Improving the accuracy of weather forecasts, especially for WCI prediction, is helpful in obtaining better estimations of ET ₀ based on public weather data.     

Surveys of cereal diseases and pests in the Netherlands. 2. Stem-base diseases of winter wheat

In the period 1974–1986, ca. 100 commercial winter wheat fields were surveyed annually for stembase diseases. In these years, on average 6% of the tillers was infected with eyespot in spring at the first-second, node stage. Eyespot intensity in spring was high in years with high temperature during winter. Eyespot, intensity in the milky-ripe stage in July, averaged 13% of the culms and was high in years with high temperature in April and high precipitation in March, April and May. These data may improve forecasts.In the milky-ripe stage, 2% of the culms were infected with sharp eyespot, but its intensity has gradually increased during the survey years. No significant correlation of sharp eyespot intensity with dry periods in autumn, spring or summer was found.Symptoms of take-all were found on 0.2% of the stem-bases during ripening. Its intensity was low in years with high precipitation in March, April, May and June and high temperature in May and June.Samenvatting Een honderdtal percelen wintertarwe werd in 1974–86 jaarlijks op voetziekten geïnventariseerd. In het voorjaar, tijdens het, eerste en tweede knoopstadium van het gewas, was gemiddeld 6% van de spruiten aangetast door oogvlekkenziekte. De intensiteit van de ziekte was hoog in jaren met een hoge gemiddelde wintertemperatuur. Tijdens het melkrijpe stadium, in juli was gemiddeld 13% van de halmen aangetast door oogvlekkenziekte. De aantasting in juli was hoog in jaren met een hoge temperatuur in april en veel neerslag in de maanden maart, april en mei. Met deze gegevens kunnen adviessystemen worden verbeterd.Scherpe oogvlekkenziekte was op gemiddeld 2% van de halmen in juli aanwezig. De ziekte nam geleidelijk met de jaren toe. De jaarlijkse intensiteit was niet gecorreleerd met droge perioden in de herfst, voorjaar of zomer.Symptomen van halmdoder waren op gemiddeld 0.2% van de halmen aanwezig. De intensiteit van de ziekte was hoog in jaren met weinig neerslag in maart, april, mei en juni en met een lage temperatuur in mei en juni.     

苹果全爪螨种群发生高峰日的模糊测报

本研究利用了北京近郊自1977年来9年的资料,取每年5月份月平均气温(℃)和月平均降水量(mm)作为预报因子,6月份苹果全爪螨种群发生的第一个大高峰日为预报对象组建模糊预报模型。其预报结果用于指导对叶螨的防治。近两年来的应用表明,测报结果与实查结果相吻合。同时还表明,在该叶螨与山楂叶螨混合发生情况下,可根据各自种群第一个大高峰日出现的时间关系,指导对山楂叶螨的防治。     

水稻二化螟性诱测报技术研究

多年系统调查和应用结果表明,二化螟性诱剂具有较强的诱蛾能力,其诱蛾量与测报灯的诱蛾效果相当或略高,且诱蛾量受环境影响较小。诱测结果能够反映出二化螟在1年中发生的实际情况,可在实际测报中应用。性诱、灯诱、田间虫量剥查结合,将明显提高水稻二化螟监测预报水平。