1958—2018年广西早稻高温热害时空变化规律

为了掌握广西水稻高温热害的变化规律特征,为水稻生产制定防灾减灾对策提供决策依据,本研究利用广西89个气象观测站1958—2018年观测资料及地理信息数据,采用GIS技术、M-K突变分析和Morlet小波周期分析等方法,探究广西早稻高温热害发生的时间变化规律和空间分布等特征。结果表明:(1)1958—2018年广西早稻高温热害呈增长趋势,20世纪90年代为发生低谷期,21世纪10年代为高发期;(2)高温热害发生次数在2009年发生增多突变,除重度高温热害外,轻、中度高温热害次数变化均有突变发生;(3)高温热害发生频次存在18、32年左右的显著周期变化,预计2018年之后广西早稻高温热害仍处于高发期;(4)高温热害高发区位于左、右江河谷,桂中盆地和西江—浔江—郁江等流域区域,沿海地区发生频次少于内陆。以上研究结论对实现水稻丰产稳产优产具有重要的现实意义。     

豫东农区冬小麦生育期气候变化的多时间尺度分析

为了研究豫东农区冬小麦生育期内的气候变化特征,预测气候变化趋势,选取豫东地区5个气象观测站1951—2011年的气候观测资料,集成Mann-Kendall、一元线性回归、5年滑动平均、Morlet小波及变异系数等方法,分析了豫东农区冬小麦生育期10月至翌年5月气候的突变事实、变化趋势、变化周期及年际变率特征。结果表明,豫东农区冬小麦生育期内气温序列存在突变年份,主要表现为增温突变;降水序列不存在突变年份,其变化趋势不明显。近60年来气温和降水变化趋势的震荡周期特征复杂,存在多重时间尺度上的嵌套结构。气温序列变异系数普遍较小,降水序列变异系数普遍较大。豫东农区近60年气温升高趋势明显,主要由近20年增温贡献,未来一段时期内气温可能会出现升降温交替现象,但变化幅度较小,总体上呈持续增温趋势,气候变暖对农业生产的影响既有利也有弊,冬春季增温显著一方面有利于提高冬小麦产量,另一方面会加剧病虫害及霜冻干旱灾害的发生。降水变化趋势在60年时间序列上不明显,周期预测显示未来一段时期内降水有增加趋势,年际变率较大,给降水准确预测带来难度,加剧豫东农区旱涝灾情。     

analysis and application of demand forecasting model with multi element variable parameters

A forecasting model for logistics demand was presented to overcome the limitations of single goal forecasts of logistics demand and forecast data complexity. Based on the forecasting evaluation index and pretreatment of rough set theory, a multi input and multi output wavelet network (MMWNN) model for forecasting multi element regional logistics demand was studied. The network configuration was confirmed using the stepwise checkout and iterative gradient descent methods. After rough set reduction, the evaluation index was used to forecast the multi element regional logistics demand. The results of the numerical example indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.     

Segmentation algorithm for urinary sediment image combiningwavelet transform and 2D Maximum entropy threshold

In order to solve the problem that urine sediment visible components cannot be segmented effectively because of complex components, complicated defocusing in image and poor discrimination between object and background, a method based on combination algorithm wis designed to segment urine sediment. The wavelet transform wis used to erase the effect of defocusing. Then morphology wis utilized to get the subimages that include the particles. The segmentation method combining the wavelet transform based segmentation and the two dimensional entropy threshold based segmentation wis employed to segment urine sediment visible components. Experimental results show that the proposed method can segment urinary sediment images effectively and precisely.     

Multi scale and multi orientation features for image de noising

An adaptive algorithm for image de noising is proposed based on the multi scale and multi orientation features. The coefficients in different scales and different directions are obtained by image decomposition using the nonsubsampled contourlet transform. Then thresholds functions are adaptively set with these coefficients. The texture of the image information is introduced by using the mean of decomposition scale and the energy of regional. The greater the energy, the more information of the texture while the same decomposition scales, the smaller the threshold is set. On the contrary, the greater the threshold is set. After the de noising and then reconstruction of these coefficients, image de noising is implemented. Compare to the wavelet transform threshold and contourlet transform threshold, the nonsubsampled contourlet transform pick up the image detail better and improve the quality of the image.     

昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量变化特征及影响因子

本文探究昌吉地区1963—2020年作物生长季蒸散量变化特征,为该地区水资源优化管理、作物合理布局、农业灌溉规划以及水资源开发利用提供依据。根据昌吉地区8个气象站点1963—2020年的气象数据,采用Thornthwaite法、气候倾向法、M-K检验法、小波分析法分析潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征,结合相关分析探讨气候因子对其影响。结果表明：（1）在时间尺度上,昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量增加趋势显著,变化率为2.3 mm/10 a,多年平均值为876 mm;8个气象站点潜在蒸散量都呈现增加趋势;（2）在空间尺度上,昌吉地区作物生长季内潜在蒸散量由西向东呈递减趋势。整体呈先减少后增加的变化趋势;（3）西部在2009年、中部在1994年、东部在2013年发生突变,昌吉地区突变发生在1997年,中部和昌吉地区突变早于西部和东部;周期变化显示,昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量有3.7~4.2年变化周期;（4）影响昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量主要因素是气温,其中最低气温逐年升高导致潜在蒸散量逐年增加的贡献最大,其他气候因子的变化对潜在蒸散量起着削弱作用。     

Optimal Design of Plane Cascades Based on Wavelet Theory

Based on the optimal control theory and Lagrange interpolation an optimal design model of plane cascades of 3D blade in an arbitrary surface of revolution is established. Using wavelet theory to solve the model, and lots of numerical results are obtained. The results show that the wavelet method is more effective than the conventional methods.     

Intellectual prediction of a permeability index for blast furnaces

The permeability index for blast furnaces is an important monitoring parameter in their operation. Proper trend prediction of the permeability index is important for good operation. Support vector machines (SVM) combined with wavelet analysis are adopted to build a forecasting model. Four historic values of a permeability index are analyzed by a wavelet analysis via seven levels. Based on eight wavelet analyzed values and combined with operating parameters, eight sub models are built using the least square support vector machines method. The prediction components are reconstructed to obtain a forecast. The details of modeling, validation and result analyses are presented.     

Time-frequency Analysis of Heart Sound

The structural defects of the heart are often reflected in the sounds that heart produces. Because of the non-stationary of the PCG signal, it is important to maintain its time-frequency character. We discuss the Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) method and the wavelet method. Some normal and abnormal heart sounds were analyzed by these methods. We can see the advantage and disadvantage of them obviously from the examples.     

Application of Time-frequency Representations in Study on Heart Sound

Heart sound is non-stationary signal, some of its important characteristics can be obtained by time - frequency analysis method. The criteria of different time-frequency representation concentricity of spectrogram, coverage, MSE and regularity of time envelope axe proposed, the performances of Short-time Fourier transform, Wigner - Ville distribution, continuous wavelet transform, and S transform in study on heart sound are compared based on these criteria , and concrete example of application is given.