A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF FUZZY EVALUATION METHOD FOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

The problem of fuzzy evaluation of environmental pollution is importantboth in environment science and in environmental protection.Usual evaluationmethods have their own characteristics.This paper puts forward a mathematicalmodel of fuzzy evaluation method in grades by means of systematic analysisfor environmental pollution.At the same time,it assigns weighted values byordering based on paired comparison.     

山西地膜棉花高产优质综合农艺措施数学模型的研究

本文采用五因素五水平二次回归旋转设计的方法，研究了山西不同生态棉区皮棉产量与密度、氮、磷、钾施肥量及化控次数（用量）关系的数学模型。分析了不同因素的影响效应，明确了各栽培措施的主次。通过模拟进优待选了不同产量等级的优化农艺措施组合方案，为不同生态棉区制定棉花高产优质决策方案提供依据。     

山区庄园式开发模式研究——以河北省元氏县为例

本文对河北省元氏县山区庄园式开发模式进行了论述,该模式通过山区“四荒”(荒山、荒坡、荒沟、荒滩)地使用权的拍卖调动了群众治理荒山的积极性,将“庄”与“园”相结合,对山区进行综合性、立体化治理,实现了生态效益、经济效益和社会效益的协调发展,是实现山区农民脱贫致富的有效途径。     

王家厂水库洪水实时预报方法及应用研究

考虑到流域降雨时空变化和流域地形、河道特征对流域产汇流的影响，应用新安江三水源产流模型、流域分散入流非线性汇流模型以及流域洪水实时预报校正模型，对王家厂流域洪水进行模拟，取得了较为满意的计算结果。     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

水产品收购价格预测的时序组合模型研究

我国水产品市场已经出现了区域性、结构性的供大于求及价格持续下降的现象。为此，对水产品价格进行预测是必要的。以1978～1999年数据为样本，利用时序组合模型对2000年的水产品收购价格进行了预测研究。     

平面二维数模研究闸下淤积的缺陷

以姚江大闸和武障河闸为例，对河口水域建闸后的闸下淤积的机理进行了研究。通过应用二维悬沙模型的模拟计算，分析了数学模型在模拟近闸段的淤积时存在的缺陷，对产生问题的原因进行了初步探讨。由于闸下淤积问题存在明显的时空性和区域性特征，应积极研究解决措施。     

荒漠化预警模型及其应用研究

分析了土地生产潜力的影响因子及其计算方法，从机理上分析各因子给未来荒漠化的发展趋势可能造成的影响，并从土地生产潜力退化基本原理出发，建立了荒漠化顸警模型。以疏勒河流域为背景，在GIS平台支持下，应用预警模型分析了该流域昌马灌区农业综合开发后的荒漠化趋势，对灌区荒漠化的发展趋势和潜在危险性进行了分析判断。