曲线回归计算器程序编制

利用ＣＡＳＩＯｆｘ－４５００ｐ计算器编程对一套数据同时用农林业常用的８个经验方程进行曲线回归，并进行显著性检验，选出最佳方程。     

北京九龙山油松人工林地位指数表的编制及油松林生长与立地因子的关系

北京地处暖温带半湿润季风气候区，地带性植被是暖温带落叶阔叶林。由于长期受     

Economic potential of agroforestry for public recreational parks

The availability of public recreational facilities is being threatened by growing demands, limited supplies, and declining government funding. In response to these pressures, the economic potential of agroforestry for supplementing operating budgets of public recreational parks is examined in a case study park consisting of 324 hectares. Agroforestry enterprises native to the area were selected for development on 70 hectares of the site. Linear programming was used to determine the optimum combinations of 23 agroforestry regimes composed of the following activities: 1) conventional forestry planting, tree density of 1682 trees/hectare, 2) the selected agroforestry planting with hay, tree density of 1495 trees/hectare, 3) the selected agroforestry planting with grazing, 4) hay production, and 5) rental of pasture for grazing. The objective function of the study was to maximize the net present value of the study site subject to land, labor, capital, and minimum annual income constraints. The preferred optimal regime generated $1782 per hectare from an agroforestry planting configuration of 1495 trees/hectare with 75 percent hay, 25 percent grazing, and no annual income requirements. Minimum annual income requirements of $2400 and $4800 were feasible but suboptimal from a net present value criteria. The study found that agroforestry could be used to privatize selective activities of public recreational parks and thus enable public agencies to provide these facilities more effectively.     

泡桐属植物育种值预测方法的研究

分别用最佳线性无偏预测和最佳线性预测方法预测了泡桐属植物的育种值。结果表明，根据亲缘相关距阵对育种值的最佳线性无偏预测结果没有显著影响：数据量较大时，可用小区平均值取代单株值，同时也可用最佳线性预测代替最佳线性无偏预测方法预测育种值；预测育种值与真正育种值之间的相关系数与预测育种值之间的方法或误差方差存在极显著的相关关系，可用前者作预测育种值的精度指标。通过比较毛泡桐种源所预测育种值之间的方差和误差方差可以得出：在对研究材料评选时，最佳线性预测比最小平方估算法具有优越性，但当重复数大于5次，每个小区内的植株多于6时，这两种预测方法的精度非常接近。     

Predicting regeneration establishment in Norway spruce plantations using a multivariate multilevel model

This study predicts the regeneration establishment on 3-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) plantations in southern Finland using regeneration survey data. Regeneration establishment was described by seven response variables: number of planted spruces, natural Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), natural spruces, natural seed-origin birches (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and B. pendula Roth.) and other broadleaves (i.e. sprout-origin birches and other broadleaves than birch), as well as height of crop-tree spruce and dominant height of broadleaves. Due to the multivariate (several responses for each plot) and multilevel (plot, stand, municipality, forest centre) structure, regeneration establishment was modelled by fitting a multivariate multilevel model with explanatory variables such as temperature sum, site fertility, soil quality and method of site preparation. In the model, the numbers of tree seedlings were modelled using over-dispersed Poisson distributed equations, and the tree heights were modelled using normally distributed linear equations. The estimated fixed and random parameters of the equations were logical, and there was no serious bias in predicting the regeneration establishment in the independent test data set. This modelling approach can be used to predict the regeneration establishment stochastically by taking into account the large unexplained variation in regeneration models.     

外界生态因子对油茶品质影响的研究

对21个地区58个油茶物种(或优良品种)进行了含油率、脂肪酸组成、碘值和粗蛋白质等化学品质的分析。通过选取14个不同地区的普通油茶(Camellia oleifera Abel)的品质与19个生态因子进行多元线性逐步回归分析,揭示了不饱和脂肪酸含量与纬度成明显的正相关;种仁蛋白质含量与8、9月份的降雨量呈负相关的趋势。品质之间的相关分析表明:不饱和脂肪酸含量与蛋白质含量存在明显的负相关关系;不同物种之间,其不饱和脂肪酸含量与果实的大小成负相关。     

二次调节静液储能拖拉机传动系统

二次调节静液储能拖拉机传动系统是由柴油机，液压蓄能器，液压泵/马达（二次元件），差动变速器和驱动轴等组成，该系统充分利用了液压蓄能功率密度大，二次元件具有较高的控制质量，可实现四象限工作等特点；实现了柴油机和拖拉机行驶载荷的分离，工作过程中当外负载扭矩发生变化时，将引起二次元件的转速变化，从而引起二次元件排量的变化，通过调节液压马达的变量机构使其与工作负载所需转速相适应。     

Using model scenarios to predict and evaluate forest-management impacts on soil base saturation at landscape level

Silviculture, forest conversion and technical tools of ecosystem management, such as forest liming, display their effects at the landscape level. Therefore their planning and control should take place at the same scale. The primary objective of this work was to assess soil chemical properties and their changes in relationship to ecosystem management, especially forest conversion and forest liming. We calculated scenario models, based on regression analysis, which allow such an examination in the context of understanding landscape processes which can be expected to operate in the sampling region. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was used to predict soil chemical attributes (base saturation, pH, C/N content and stock, exchangeable stocks of Ca and Mg) as indicators of site stability or off-site effects of forest ecosystems such as effects on clean drinking water from forested watersheds. Because of space limitations, in this paper only the modelling results of base saturation are presented. Base saturation was used as an integrative example for other soil chemical properties. The transformation of measurements to the regional scale, i.e., the regionalization, was calculated for the forested parts of two test regions in the Black Forest on the basis of measured chemical properties of 90–150 soil profiles per test region. The models have a spatial resolution of 50×50 m, which is a spatial scale relevant for forestry practice and forest management. Topographic variables (e.g., elevation, aspect, slope gradient, and slope length), the stratigraphic classification of the geologic substrate, stand characteristics from forest inventory data, and finally technical information about forest liming were the auxiliary variables (secondary site properties) that provided indirect information about base saturation and were available for the whole forested area of the test regions. Base saturation could be predicted with an accuracy of ~50–70% (in terms of the multiple R²) by using these properties as predictor variables in multiple linear regression analyses. The explained proportion of variance was unexpectedly high considering the high geomorphological heterogeneity of the two test regions. Based upon the regionalization models, it was possible to establish scenarios showing the landscape-related effects on base saturation that may be achieved by forest conversion towards a higher proportion of forests with broad-leaved mixed stands and by forest liming. These scenarios allow the interactions between several influencing factors and management strategies and the impacts on the target variable to be synoptically judged. Thus the presented regionalization models achieve the role of decision support tools for the planning of forest management at the landscape level. They allow an assessment of the environmental effects of forest management strategies in terms of site sustainability or preservation of water resources in forested catchments.     

红外光谱结合多元线性回归法快速测定木塑复合材料中木粉含量

采用KBr压片法对杉木/聚丙烯(PP)复合材料样品进行了红外光谱分析,确定杉木特征吸收谱带为1740~1730、1610~1590、1270~1260、1060~1050以及1040~1030 cm-1,以PP在1377 cm-1处吸收强度(I)为内标,对木塑复合材料(WPC)中木粉含量和杉木特征峰相对吸收强度进行相关性分析,并采用逐步多元线性回归法建立木粉含量与相对峰强间的多元线性回归方程。结果表明,选取I(1060-1050)/I1377、I(1270-1260)/I1377为回归变量建立的二元线性回归方程和以I(1060-1050)/I1377、I(1040-1030)/I1377及I(1270-1260)/I1377为回归变量建立的三元线性回归方程,具有较高的预测精度。木粉含量的预测值和参照值之间具有强烈的相关性,校正决定系数(R2c)超过0.98,验证决定系数(R2p)超过0.96。外部验证结果表明,线性回归方程预测准确性较高,预测相对偏差范围为0.9%至7.4%,其中三元线性回归方程预测准确性稍好于二元线性回归方程。     

基于无人机偏振遥感的水稻冠层氮素含量反演模型

受水稻冠层几何结构的影响,传统的无人机高光谱获取到的反射光谱信息中包含与水稻内部组成物质无关的镜面反射信息,从而影响水稻氮素含量的反演精度,因此在利用无人机获取水稻冠层反射光谱信息时,有必要考虑通过偏振测量技术去除反射光谱中的镜面反射分量,进而实现提升水稻氮素含量反演精度的目的。基于无人机偏振遥感测量得到的水稻分蘖期多角度偏振光谱数据和与之对应的氮素含量数据,采用植被指数方法分析二者之间的相关性,得到了水稻冠层偏振光谱数据与其对应氮素含量相关性最高时对应的角度,选取该观测角度下的偏振光谱数据,利用连续投影法(Successive projections algorithm, SPA)提取特征波段,在此基础上,基于数学变换的方法,提出了构建植被指数的新思路,构建了由2个波段组成的偏振光谱植被指数(Polarisation spectrum vegetation index, PSVI),并利用线性回归方法建立水稻冠层氮素含量的反演模型。结果表明,通过对不同观测天顶角下水稻冠层偏振光谱数据与氮素含量相关性分析,得到最佳观测角度为-15°(后向观测15°);利用连续投影法提取得到该角度下偏振...