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111.
运用贡献度随机森林方法(CRF)方法探讨公司债财务指标比率与其违约率的关系.运用连续属性离散化方法(OB)进行财务指标最优降维;运用WOE变换进行模型变量约简.研究表明,CRF模型的分类性能显著优于其他模型,测试集评估总体正确率达90.47%,AUC统计量、AR比率及K-S值分别提升了2.6%、7.6%、4.38%,变量贡献度量化了各财务指标对违约率影响,为诠释随机森林预测机制提供了依据. 相似文献
112.
基于商业模式创新中介效应,依据全国314家企业问卷调查的样本数据,运用多元线性回归方法,考量网络嵌入性、商业模式创新和企业竞争优势之间关系,结果发现:关系嵌入性、结构嵌入性与竞争优势均有显著的正向关系;商业模式创新在关系嵌入性、结构嵌入性与企业竞争优势的关系中起着中介作用。鉴此,企业应注重构建不同形式的网络嵌入,推动商业模式的调整与变革,以提高企业竞争优势。 相似文献
113.
The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system. 相似文献
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115.
为了实现快速高精度获取冬小麦氮营养指数的高光谱监测技术,利用美国SVC HR-1024I型野外光谱辐射仪对2017-2019年关中地区的冬小麦进行遥感监测,获取“三边”参数、任意两波段光谱指数和植被指数,通过相关性分析和逐步回归分析方法筛选冬小麦氮营养指数的敏感光谱参数,结合偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)、随机森林算法(RFR)、支持向量机回归(SVR)和梯度增强回归(GBDT)建立冬小麦氮营养指数模型,并对模型估算精度进行验证。结果表明,从拔节期到灌浆期,各时期的氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数均呈极显著相关,其中拔节期氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数相关性均高于其他时期,且基于一阶导数光谱的归一化光谱指数和比值光谱指数与氮营养指数的相关系数最大,为0.66。拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数预测模型的决定系数(r2)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.96和0.05,模型验证的r2、RMSE和相对预测偏差(RPD)分别为0.95、0.12和2.12,模型预测精度最高。因此,拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数估算模型可用于冬小麦氮营养监测... 相似文献
116.
针对近年的研究热点,通过SWAT模型对半干旱、盐碱化严重的吉林省大安市进行降水入渗模拟。以2000、2004和2008年遥感影像解译得到的土地利用数据为基础,结合SWAT模型的模拟结果,讨论LUCC与降水入渗量的相关关系。2008年与2000年相比,难利用地的面积有所降低,旱地、草地等发生了大面积的增加,研究区内土地状况有所好转。通过SWAT模型运行得到的结果显示:2008年的平均降水入渗量为56.27 mm,比2000年的值高。利用降水入渗系数法进行计算,也得到了2008年的降水入渗量高于2000年的结果,这与SWAT模型模拟得到的结果有着相同的趋势,且平均降水入渗量的标准偏差为5.27,说明SWAT模型对于研究区有良好的适应性。同时,根据土地利用数据和SWAT模型模拟数据可以得知,LUCC对研究区的降水入渗量存在着一定的相关性。 相似文献
117.
With a 2 millions of tons production, France is the second country in the European Union to produce durum wheat. Durum wheat production requires high grain nitrogen concentration. Irrigation and nitrogen fertilization must be managed simultaneously to maximize grain yield and also avoid low protein concentration and environmental impacts. To help advisors and farmers to better manage together these two agricultural operations and to develop innovative managements, developing a biodecisional model is an interesting possibility. However, knowledge is still missing on how farmers already managed these operations and how these two operations are linked. We developed the conceptual model for the decision part of this computer model. We performed a survey of 28 farmers conducted over the five French production areas investigating a diversity of growing conditions to identify the set of possible constraints and farmers' decision rules. To analyze the survey, we first used a general inductive approach on individual cases and then built a conceptual model of the decision with a bottom-up approach. We identified four decision sequences for fertilization (N splitting, choice of N fertilizer, rate of application, fertilization triggering) and five for irrigation (irrigation period, anticipated number of irrigation cycles, irrigation cycles organization, irrigation triggering and irrigation cycle specificities). For each operation, the first three decision sequences refer to strategic decisions. The other decision sequences refer to tactical decisions. Coupling this model with a crop model could provide guidelines for managing durum wheat in the current climatic and economic changing context. 相似文献
118.
以3个树种健康复叶为试材,研究了叶内光合构件和支撑构件的生物量投资的种内种间变化规律。结果表明:水曲柳、胡桃楸和黄檗叶轴质量占复叶质量的比例分别为0.18、0.26和0.17,胡桃楸显著大于其它2个树种。跨物种尺度上,复叶大的树种需要更多的叶内支撑结构投资。但物种水平上,水曲柳叶片投资随叶增大而增大,胡桃楸则降低,黄檗基本稳定,表现出与跨物种水平上的叶片投资随叶增大而降低的普遍规律不同。今后需要加深物种水平上叶内生物量分配的异速生长的了解。 相似文献
119.
120.
Polymorphic mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) in a coastal riverscape: size class assemblages,distribution, and habitat associations 下载免费PDF全文
We compared the assemblage structure, spatial distributions, and habitat associations of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) morphotypes and size classes. We hypothesised that morphotypes would have different spatial distributions and would be associated with different habitat features based on feeding behaviour and diet. Spatially continuous sampling was conducted over a broad extent (29 km) in the Calawah River, WA (USA). Whitefish were enumerated via snorkelling in three size classes: small (10–29 cm), medium (30–49 cm), and large (≥50 cm). We identified morphotypes based on head and snout morphology: a pinocchio form that had an elongated snout and a normal form with a blunted snout. Large size classes of both morphotypes were distributed downstream of small and medium size classes, and normal whitefish were distributed downstream of pinocchio whitefish. Ordination of whitefish assemblages with nonmetric multidimensional scaling revealed that normal whitefish size classes were associated with higher gradient and depth, whereas pinocchio whitefish size classes were positively associated with pool area, distance upstream, and depth. Reach‐scale generalised additive models indicated that normal whitefish relative density was associated with larger substrate size in downstream reaches (R2 = 0.64), and pinocchio whitefish were associated with greater stream depth in the reaches farther upstream (R2 = 0.87). These results suggest broad‐scale spatial segregation (1–10 km), particularly between larger and more phenotypically extreme individuals. These results provide the first perspective on spatial distributions and habitat relationships of polymorphic mountain whitefish. 相似文献