我国慈善组织的外部监督

慈善组织的公共性是外部监督的正当性基础。外部监督包括政府监督、社会监督、利益相关者监督及独立机构的监督。政府监督主要通过主管机关和税务机关来实现,贯穿于慈善组织设立、运行等各个环节;社会监督的关键在于慈善组织信息公开制度的建立;利益相关者的监督则依托于法律赋予监督主体诉权;独立机构的监督则在于提高独立机构的独立性和公信力来实现有效的监督。     

高可信度H-ADCP流量自动监测系统关键技术研究与应用

当前H-ADCP在我国得到广泛应用,特别是长江中下游平原河网地区,已成为水文流量测验的重要组成部分.但普遍缺乏对测流原始数据的分析检验,导致测流精度及成果可信度不高,以及比测率定工作繁杂等问题,影响H-ADCP的进一步推广应用.针对上述问题,根据H-ADCP测流原理,结合平原河网地区及感潮河段水文特性,提出了一种基于国...     

基于证据可信度不确定推理的大豆病害诊断方法

针对大豆病害专家系统中诊断特征条件的复杂性和不确定性等问题,将病害证据可信度和不确定性推理的传递算法有机结合,提出了一种基于证据可信度不确定推理的大豆病害诊断方法。由植保知识库的专家先验知识和作物病害发生时期、部位和症状等表现特征,构成可信度权重作为推理依据;利用该文提出的基于证据可信度的不确定推理方法及推理规则,实现了大豆病害的自动诊断与决策。应用实践表明：该方法简单、可靠、易于实现,对大豆病害的诊断准确率达到87.62%,为植物病害的智能远程诊断和科学管理提供了一种高效的新途径。     

The influence of initial attitudes on responses to communication about genetic engineering in food production

Source credibility has been thought to bean important determinant of peoples reactions toinformation about technology. There has also been muchdebate about the need to communicate effectively withthe public about genetic engineering, particularlywithin the context of food production. Questionnaireswere used to investigate the impact of sourcecredibility, admission of risk uncertainty, andinitial attitude towards genetic engineering onattitudes of respondents after information provision.120 respondents with positive attitudes towardsgenetic engineering in food production were providedwith persuasive information about the technology,where both source attribution and admission of riskuncertainty were systematically varied within theexperimental design. Impact on perceptions of sourcecredibility, informational qualities, and postintervention attitudes were examined, and compared toa second group of respondents who held initiallynegative attitudes towards genetic engineering, andwho had been exposed to similar informationinterventions. As predicted by Social Judgment Theory,initial attitude was found to be an importantdeterminant of post-intervention attitude. However,admission of risk uncertainty was also found to beinfluential in increasing acceptance and reducingrejection of the technology, possibly through thefacilitation of elaborative processing. Contrary toprevious research, prior attitudes had an impact onperceptions of both source credibility andinformational quality. In terms of effectiveinformation provision about genetic engineering, itwas concluded that scientific honesty is the bestpolicy, and that lay understanding of scientificprocess is probably greater than hitherto assumed byexperts.     

我国食品安全管理中的政府公信力问题

针对食品安全管理中存在的相关问题,政府应通过完善食品安全管理法律及标准体系、建立严格的问责制、公开食品安全管理过程、动员全社会参与食品安全监督等方式重塑政府公信力,最终保证食品安全.     

考虑生态环境的灌区双水源区间两阶段模糊可信性约束模型

对水资源进行合理的优化配置是缓解水资源短缺问题和遏制生态环境持续恶化的重要途径之一。为了实现水资源的可持续利用和生态环境的良性循环,该研究针对灌区水资源配置系统中存在的复杂性和不确定性,以黑龙江省建三江垦区为研究区,将水质污染治理成本（生态补偿费用）与系统经济收益相结合作为目标函数,引入离散区间、概率分布函数及模糊数表示系统中的多重不确定性,通过设置不同的可信性置信水平解决带有违规风险概率的模糊风险问题,进而建立考虑生态环境的区间两阶段模糊可信性约束规划模型。通过对模型求解,实现地表地下水资源在典型作物间合理的优化配置,得到不同来水情境下生态补偿费用、不同水源不同作物的最优配水方案及不同可信性置信水平下系统最大经济效益,结果表明：模型能够反映系统中的不确定性,有效平衡系统收益与违规风险,并通过满足生态需水和农业排污约束以促进系统经济效益和生态环境的协调发展;当来水水平分别为低、中、高3种流量时,研究区地表水生态补偿费用和地下水生态补偿费用均呈现下降的趋势;当可信性置信水平为1.0时,系统经济收益为29.88×108～52.18×108元,当可信性置信水平为0.5时,系统经济收益为31....     

后农业税时代背景下乡镇政府公信力重塑路径研究

从后农业税时代时期乡镇政府公信力缺失的表现及原因出发,对提升乡镇政府公信力的有效途径进行了初步分析。     

小说《恋情的终结》中的第一人称叙事

文章由格雷厄姆·格林选择第一人称叙事为小说《恋情的终结》的叙述视角的原由谈起,将格林脱离单一强调第一人称叙事的"可信性",转而利用其有限性、复杂性的特性来刻画人物内心世界的创新性手法加以逐一分析,以期提供一个全新的视角来审视第一人称叙事在这部小说中的非凡价值。     

On scientists’ discomfort in fisheries advisory science: the example of simulation‐based fisheries management‐strategy evaluations

Scientists feel discomfort when they are asked to create certainty, where none exists, for use as an alibi in policy‐making. Recently, the scientific literature has drawn attention to some pitfalls of simulation‐based fisheries management‐strategy evaluation (MSE). For example, while estimates concerning central tendencies of distributions of simulation outcomes are usually fairly robust because they are conditioned on ample data, estimates concerning the tails of distributions (such as the probability of falling below a critical biomass) are usually conditional on few data and thus often rely on assumptions that have no strong knowledge base. The clients of scientific advice, such as the European Commission, are embracing the mechanization of the evaluation of proposed Harvest Control Rules against the precautionary principle and management objectives. Where the fisheries management institutions aim for simple answers from the scientists, giving ‘green/red light’ to a proposed management strategy, the scientists are forced into a split position between satisfying the demands of their advisory role and living up to the standards of scientific rigour. We argue against the mechanization of scientific advice that aims to incorporate all relevant processes into one big model algorithm that, after construction, can be run without circumspection. We rather encourage that fisheries advice should be a dynamic process of expert judgement, incorporating separate parallel concurrent, lines of scientific evidence, from quantitative and qualitative modelling exercises and factual knowledge of the biology and the fishery dynamics. This process can be formalized to a certain degree and can easily accommodate stakeholder viewpoints.     

证据理论在泵站老化评价中的应用

为了提高泵站老化等级确定的可信度,建立基于证据理论的泵站老化评价模型.以2座典型泵站为例,提取各项老化指标信息,请3位专家按照老化评价标准,对指标体系中的最底层指标,在每个老化等级上进行单独评分,并且经可信度归一化处理,每个评分作为一条证据,按照Dempster合成法则计算,得到每个最底层指标在识别框架上的可信度分配;然后,每个最底层指标在识别框架上的可信度分配作为一条证据,按照Dempster合成法则及带权重的证据理论合成公式层层计算,得到泵站的综合管理、机电设备、建筑物、金属结构以及泵站整体在识别框架上的可信度分配;最后按照给定公式,计算评分并确定老化等级.与应用模糊层次综合评价模型计算的结果比较,在识别框架上,除了出现难以解决的证据冲突的情况外,同一指标的最大可信度平均是最大模糊隶属度的2.4倍,且两者对应的老化等级相同,应用证据理论可以提高泵站老化等级确定的可信度;合成证据前,对每条证据进行归一化处理,可以较好地解决合成过程中出现合成信度大于1的异常情况.