Simulating Agricultural Conversion to Residential use in the Hudson River Valley: Scenario Analyses and Case Studies

Land use changes threaten agricultural land. If agricultural land is going to be preserved, the social and economic causes of conversion must be understood. However, analyzing the causes of agricultural conversion is complex because trends need to be documented before analyzing the causes. One of the leading uses of agricultural land is for residential purposes. This paper projects residential development in a Hudson River Valley watershed within Dutchess County in New York State using an integrated modeling framework consisting of an econometric model, a geographic information system (GIS), and Monte Carlo simulation. The econometric model is used to project residential development, providing parcel-specific probabilities of residential development. The GIS is employed to extract socio-economic and county-level tax parcel data to be used in conjunction with bio-geophysical attributes, such as slope, soil, and location, to calculate and project growth trends on a residential level for undeveloped land parcels. Monte Carlo simulation is used to distribute these projections into the GIS to display outcomes of scenario analyses to provide policy-makers a demonstration of how policies would likely affect the agricultural landscape of the watershed. John M. Polimeni is an Assistant Professor of Economics in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Albany College of Pharmacy in Albany, New York. Dr. Polimeni received a PhD in Ecological Economics and a BS in Mathematics at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. His professional interests include: quantitative economics, spatial and regional economics, land use change, economic development, and graduate education in Ecological Economics. He is currently working on linking ecological economics with the laws of thermodynamics and neuroeconomics into one unified model.     

沈阳市土壤重金属的空间变异规律分析

运用地统计学采样和分析方法,研究了沈阳市土壤重金属污染的空间变异特征及其规律。结果表明,土壤4种重金属平均值含量最大的为铅,最小的为铬,变异系数大小顺序为铜〉锌〉铅〉铬。经理论模型的最优拟合,发现锌、铜的最佳拟合,模型为指数模型,铅的最佳拟合模型为球状模型,铬的最佳拟合模型为线形模型。4种重金属中锌、铜的空间相关性较强,其空间变异主要是由结构性因素引起的;铅的空间相关性适中,其空间变异是由结构性因素和随机性因素共同作用的;铬的空间结构性最弱,其变异主要是由随机性因素引起的。     

海拔和坡向对北亚热带檫木天然次生林生长、空间结构和树种组成的影响

基于对北亚热带檫木天然次生林的野外调查和数据分析,研究了海拔和坡向对檫木生长、空间结构和树种组成等方面的影响。结果表明:在海拔1 000 m以上山地,檫木的胸径和树高生长量及胸径/树高均差于海拔1 000 m以下的山地,人工林造林地选择宜在海拔1 000 m以下;随阳坡→半阳坡→半阴坡→阴坡坡位变化,檫木生长量和胸径/树高呈逐渐减小趋势。阳坡和半阳坡差异不显著,是理想的檫木造林坡向;檫木纯林或者混交林可以采用均匀造林模式。在海拔500 m以下阳坡,可以实现混交增产造林树种的混交伴生树种为杉木、香樟和枫香;在海拔500 m以下半阳坡,混交伴生树种为杉木、亮叶桦、枫香和枳椇;在海拔500~1 000 m的阳坡山地,混交伴生树种为甜槠、枫香和木荷;在海拔500~1 000 m的半阳坡山地,混交伴生树种为木荷、麻栎、杜英、枫香和紫茎。初步解决了北亚热带山地檫木分布区划分、空间结构变化及互利混交树种等问题,可以为檫木人工造林的林地选择、造林模式和混交伴生树种选取等方面提供理论依据。     

不同施氮量对滴灌春小麦根系时空分布、氮素利用率及产量的影响

为明确新疆干旱区滴灌春小麦不同施氮量对小麦根系的时空分布、氮素利用率及产量的影响。以‘新春19号’为试验材料,利用田间定位试验,研究在小麦拔节期、抽穗期、开花期及成熟期施氮量0kg/hm~2(N_0对照)、150kg/hm~2(N_1)、300kg/hm~2(N_2)、450kg/hm~2(N_3)4个处理,对小麦根系根长密度、根体积、根质量等在0~100cm土层的垂直分布、动态变化及产量构成因素和产量的影响。结果表明:开花期是各处理小麦根长密度、根体积与根质量变化最为剧烈阶段;0~20cm是各处理根量值(根质量、根体积、根长密度)最大层;施氮量适宜(N_2)时,表层根量增加,氮素利用率最高;施氮量过高(N_3)可获得较高的表层根量和产量,但导致最低的氮素利用率;施氮量过少(N_1)可获得较高氮素利用率,但土层根量和产量较低;氮素严重缺乏(N_0)导致表层土壤根系数量减少,影响养分吸收并导致产量最低。建议在新疆干旱区滴灌春小麦区域采用施氮量300kg/hm~2更有利于实现节肥和高产的统一。     

The use of herders’ accounts to map livestock activities across agropastoral landscapes in Semi-Arid Africa

Improved understandings of the agricultural and range ecologies ofsemi-arid Africa require better information on the spatiotemporal distributionof domestic livestock across agropastoral landscapes. An empirical GIS-basedapproach was developed for estimating distributions of herded livestock acrossthree agropastoral territories (around 100 km² each)over a two-year period. Algorithms developed from regression analyses of herdtracking data (with R²s 0.67) are used to transform a morecomprehensive but incomplete set of data generated from herders accounts oftheir herds grazing itineraries (400 herds following 6500 itineraries). Theresulting characterization registers 40 000 days of livestock activitiesacross694 land units (averaging 70 ha) over the study period. This studydemonstrates that rural producers knowledge of their daily extractionpracticescan be translated to fine-grained characterizations of extraction densitiesacross mixed landscapes. The spatiotemporal distribution of livestock that isrevealed by this approach diverges strongly from that predicted bycommonly-usedpoint-diffusion estimation procedures. Instead, the distribution reflects localpatterns of land use, topography, vegetation, settlements, and water points.Grazing and nongrazing times spent in land units are not spatially correlatedand the seasonality of grazing pressure is spatially variable. Therefore, theecological impacts of livestock grazing are spatially variable at fine scalesand there is a significant potential for livestock-mediated nutrient transfersacross agropastoral landscapes. The georeferenced data produced by thisapproachnot only will help evaluate the impact and sustainability of differentmanagement practices but also provides a strong empirical base for improvedspatial modeling of herded livestock.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

黄刺蛾幼虫在核桃幼园的空间分布型及抽样技术

[目的]研究黄刺蛾幼虫在核桃幼园的空间分布型与抽样技术,为其测报和防治提供理论依据。[方法]采用聚集指标法,Iwao回归分析法和Taylor指数法评判黄刺蛾幼虫的空间分布型,根据Iwao-Kuno理论抽样数学模型确定其理论抽样公式。[结果]测定的聚集指标值C>1,I>0,K>0,m*/x>1,CA>0;Iwaom*-m回归中α=5.845 6>0,β=1.996 6>1;Taylor指数lga=0.741 6>0,b=1.474 0>1。聚集均数λ>2。[结论]黄刺蛾幼虫在核桃幼园的空间分布型为聚集分布,聚集度随密度增大而增强。聚集原因由昆虫本身习性和环境共同引起的。其最适理论抽样公式为n=t2/D2(6.845 6/x+0.996 6)。     

基于基尼系数的吉林省水资源空间匹配分析

水资源的空间分布特征决定一个地区的产业布局和发展方向,定量分析水资源的空间匹配特征可为合理安排工农业生产布局、提高生产力提供科学指导。根据吉林省资源、环境和经济地域差异及自然状况,将全省划分为4个生态经济区,各生态经济区内水资源、耕地、人口数量和工农业产值存在较大差异。通过构建区域基尼曲线和计算区域基尼系数,对吉林省水土资源、水资源与人口、水资源与农业产值、水资源与工业产值的匹配状况做出客观评价。结果表明,吉林省水土资源匹配的区域基尼系数为G1=0.610 6,水土资源匹配状况不及我国(省际间)和世界(国际间)平均水平;水资源与人口数量匹配的区域基尼系数为G2=0.503 2,水资源与农业产值匹配的区域基尼系数为G3=0.573 6,水资源与工业产值匹配的区域基尼系数为G4=0.632 0。吉林省水资源与耕地、人口、农业和工业等各要素的空间匹配程度整体较差,这与吉林省生态经济区划的内容相符,建议调整产业布局。     

宁夏银北平原灌淤土耕层土壤微量元素的空间变异性研究

通过网格采样和土壤养分系统研究法测量了面积为267 hm2灌淤土耕层土壤速效微量元素硼、铜、铁、锰、锌含量,采用传统统计学和地统计学结合的方法,研究了宁夏银北平原灌淤土耕层土壤微量元素田间尺度的空间变异特征。结果表明,研究区耕层土壤微量元素铜、铁、锰、锌的有效态含量呈正态分布,硼呈对数正态分布,其变异系数在30.0%~87.2%;半变异函数分析表明,硼、铜、铁、锰、锌具有各向异性,长轴相关距离分别为550、1 100、700、500、500 m,短轴相关距离分别为200、450、300、250、200 m,块金值/基台值分别为14.3%、11.3%、23.0%、21.7%、23.1%。最后利用普通克立格插值方法绘制了研究区硼、铜、铁、锰、锌的含量分布图,以利于进行土壤微量元素养分的分地块管理。     

中大尺度下橡胶园土壤全氮和有机质含量的空间分布特征

应用传统统计学和地统计学方法,对海南省国营阳江农场的农场尺度和队尺度数据进行分析.结果表明,全氮和有机质的变异系数范围为13.79%～28.24%,均属中等变异强度,且随着研究尺度的缩小,变异系数随之减少.半方差分析结果表明:2个研究尺度下,全氮和有机质均在一定范围内存在空间相关性,尺度越大,变程越大;全氮和有机质变异主要受地形、土壤类型、施肥等因素的影响,Kriging插值图均表现出明显不同的分布规律.