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111.
The in vivo faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT) is the most commonly used test to detect anthelmintic resistance (AR) in gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) of ruminants in pasture based systems. However, there are several variations on the method, some more appropriate than others in specific circumstances. While in some cases labour and time can be saved by just collecting post-drench faecal worm egg counts (FEC) of treatment groups with controls, or pre- and post-drench FEC of a treatment group with no controls, there are circumstances when pre- and post-drench FEC of an untreated control group as well as from the treatment groups are necessary. Computer simulation techniques were used to determine the most appropriate of several methods for calculating AR when there is continuing larval development during the testing period, as often occurs when anthelmintic treatments against genera of GIN with high biotic potential or high re-infection rates, such as Haemonchus contortus of sheep and Cooperia punctata of cattle, are less than 100% efficacious. Three field FECRT experimental designs were investigated: (I) post-drench FEC of treatment and controls groups, (II) pre- and post-drench FEC of a treatment group only and (III) pre- and post-drench FEC of treatment and control groups.To investigate the performance of methods of indicating AR for each of these designs, simulated animal FEC were generated from negative binominal distributions with subsequent sampling from the binomial distributions to account for drench effect, with varying parameters for worm burden, larval development and drench resistance. Calculations of percent reductions and confidence limits were based on those of the Standing Committee for Agriculture (SCA) guidelines. For the two field methods with pre-drench FEC, confidence limits were also determined from cumulative inverse Beta distributions of FEC, for eggs per gram (epg) and the number of eggs counted at detection levels of 50 and 25. Two rules for determining AR: (1) %reduction (%R) < 95% and lower confidence limit <90%; and (2) upper confidence limit <95%, were also assessed. For each combination of worm burden, larval development and drench resistance parameters, 1000 simulations were run to determine the number of times the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been declared.When continuing larval development occurs during the testing period of the FECRT, the simulations showed AR should be calculated from pre- and post-drench worm egg counts of an untreated control group as well as from the treatment group. If the widely used resistance rule 1 is used to assess resistance, rule 2 should also be applied, especially when %R is in the range 90 to 95% and resistance is suspected. 相似文献
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以通蓖9号、通蓖6号、通蓖5号和中东为试验材料,利用作物生理发育时间恒定的原理,系统构建了蓖麻花芽分化和物候期的机理模型。模型用Bate函数来计算相对热效应,用高斯函数来计算光周期效应,引入温度敏感性、光周期敏感性、品种早熟性和灌浆因子4个参数。运用不同地点和年份试验数据对模型进行检验,结果表明:不同品种蓖麻生长锥伸长膨大期、花梗原基分化期、小花原基分化期、花粉粒和子房形成期、花粉粒充实完成期等花芽分化阶段和出苗期、开花期、结果期和成熟期等物候期的绝对模拟误差大多都在0~5d,根均方差不超过3d。 相似文献
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不同工况柴油机排气余热回收系统试验与仿真 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
基于有机朗肯循环(Organic rankine cycle,ORC)设计了柴油机排气余热回收系统。建立了ORC热力学仿真模型预测系统回收性能,并对某款柴油发动机在有、无ORC作用下分别进行试验,对比了试验数据与仿真结果,验证了模型的有效性。将模型应用于不同工况下,观察不同工质流量对ORC净功率及热效率的影响,结果表明ORC净功率随着转速的增加而增加,不同工况下最大热效率均为12.1%,且对应的工质流量选择区间随着转速的提高而扩大,此区间的确定可为ORC试验时工质流量范围的选择提供参考依据。 相似文献
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A state-transition model based on Leslie matrix formulation was used to investigate the effects of herd immunity and age structure on the infection of a simulated cattle herd with bluetongue viruses under Australian climatic conditions. Increasing duration of immunity decreased the prevalence of infection. A duration of immunity of 33 months was consistent with prevalence estimates made from previous serological studies of bluetongue virus. Herd prevalence displayed slowly dampening cyclical variation over time (most pronounced when a short duration of immunity was simulated). Increasing calving and mortality risk rates in the simulated herd increased prevalence, whereas increasing age at first calving decreased prevalence. Manipulation of calving rates had the greatest effect on the predicted prevalence of infection in the herd. Simulation of a number of herd-management scenarios suggested that management systems in which cattle are bred early and where high calving rates are achieved are likely to contribute to high levels of infection with bluetongue viruses. Results confirm the importance of management factors in influencing the prevalence of infectious diseases in animal populations. 相似文献
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In the temperate climate of northeast Germany, a trade-off exists between water use in agricultural crop production and groundwater recharge which is important for urban water supply, irrigation, forestry and peat protection. The APSIM-Nwheat model was used to analyze the impact of climate change scenarios on deep drainage (DD), the water loss below the maximum root zone as the main source of groundwater recharge, and wheat production for two main soil types. A linear and a nonlinear climate scenario were used in this study: The linear scenario for 2001–2050 was based on a simple linearly modified historical climate record from 1951 to 2000. The nonlinear scenario used the same 1951–2000 historical climate record but combined it nonlinearly with a Global Circulation Model climate scenario for 2001–2050. Simulation results showed different distributions of deep drainage and grain yield with the linear and nonlinear scenarios, but no difference in the 50-year averages. Hence, a linear manipulation of climate records can be as effective for climate change impact studies on deep drainage and grain yield as nonlinearly manipulated climate data, if long-term average changes are of main interest. The simulation results indicated that a trade-off between deep drainage and grain yields can be potentially controlled through N management. However, such control mechanism was more effective under current climate conditions than under future climate and on a better water-holding silt soil compared to a poorer water-holding loamy sand. It is suggested that areas with poor water-holding soils should be managed extensively for groundwater recharge harvesting while better water-holding soils should be used for high input grain production. 相似文献
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