基于Lasso和支持向量机的组合预测及其应用

针对Lasso方法与支持向量机两者的联系与各自的优势，给出了基于Lasso与支持向量机的串联型、并联型和嵌入型三种组合预测，并将它们运用到我国粮食价格预测中.实证结果表明，与单一预测方法的预测结果相比，基于Lasso方法与支持向量机的串联型组合预测和嵌入型组合预测具有更高的预测精度.     

Predicting the degree of phosphorus saturation using the ammonium acetate–EDTA soil test

As a result of the important role played by phosphorus (P) in surface water eutrophication, the susceptibility of soils to release P requires evaluation. The degree of phosphorus saturation, assessed by oxalate extraction (DPS_ox), has been used as an indicator. However, most laboratories do not include DPS_ox in routine soil tests because of cost and time. This study evaluates the suitability of the ammonium acetate extraction in the presence of EDTA (AAEDTA), the standard soil test P (STP) in Wallonia (Southern Belgium), to predict DPS_ox; we also compared it with the Mehlich 3 extraction. Ninety‐three topsoil samples were collected in agricultural soils throughout Wallonia. Good correlations were found between the AAEDTA and the Mehlich 3 methods for P, Fe and Al (r = 0.85, 0.77 and 0.86, respectively). An exponential relationship was found between P_AAEDTA and DPS_ox. Results of principal component analysis and regression demonstrated that STP can be used to predict DPS_ox (r = 0.93) after logarithmic transformation. Soil test Al was also a good indicator of the P sorption capacity (PSC_ox) of soils (r = 0.86). Including the clay fraction in regression equations only slightly improved the prediction of PSC_ox (r = 0.90), while other readily available data (such as pH or organic carbon) did not significantly improve either DPS_ox or PSC_ox predictions.     

不同林龄枫香子代性状变异与家系选择

对布设在安徽祁门县的首批84个枫香子代测定林，分析比较了9年生与3年生两个不同林龄胸径、树高性状的遗传力和遗传增益等参数，并开展了优良家系选择。结果表明不同时期入选的家系名称、数量及名次出现较大差异，大部分家系胸径、树高性状的家系遗传力、单株遗传力及遗传增益等参数估值，表现为随林龄增大而降低。研究结果为枫香良种选育的适宜林龄提供了参考依据。     

Relationship between corn yield and chemical composition of the ear leaf measured with different regression models

Abstract

Corn yields and leaf samples were obtained from experimental plots receiving varying rates of N, P and K. Yields were regressed on leaf levels of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn as independent variables. Various polynomial regressions were fitted to the yields and “goodness of fit”; of particular mathematical models was used as a basis for evaluating particular biological and statistical concepts.

It was found that no regression, where chemical elements were used as ratios, fit the observations as well as a quadratic polynomial or its square root transformation. This suggests that within the set of data used, emphasis on particular cation or anion ratios does not necessarily result in the “best”; explanation of variation in yield.

“Classical”; growth equations were fitted to corn yields, but were not as precise in predicting yields as the polynomials. A modified stagewise regression procedure was used for fitting one mathematical model, but results were less satisfactory than those obtained with usual least squares procedures.     

Critical comparison of the vanadomolybdate and the molybdenum blue methods for the analysis of phosphate in plant sap

Abstract

The performance of the vanodomolybdate and molybdenum blue methods for the routine determination of phosphate in plant sap were compared in order to assess their suitability for the detection of P deficiency at an early stage of plant growth. The molybdenum blue method was ca 10 times more sensitive than the vanadomolybdate one and required less sap to give a successful test. Recoveries of phosphate added to both sap and solution samples were close to 100% with both methods. The methods were in good agreement over a wide range of phosphate concentrations using sap samples from all leaves during the early stages of P deficiency, but increases in sap background colour caused the vanadomolybdate method to overestimate phosphate concentrations as the deficiency became more acute. Measurements on solutions of similar absorbance showed that the vanadomolybdate method was not significantly more variable than the molybdenum blue method but tended to overestimate phosphate concentration when very small volumes of sap were available. It was concluded that the molybdenum blue method was the most reliable for routine measurements of phosphate in plant sap.     

基于社会燃烧理论的耕地非农化驱动因素分析

中国耕地非农化现象日益明显。基于社会燃烧理论分析了耕地非农化的驱动原理,建立了耕地非农化影响机制模型,并运用SPSS 19.0软件对分类驱动因素进行了主成分及回归分析。结果表明,人均GDP和固定资产投资所占GDP比重等经济发展变量对耕地非农化水平的正向影响最大;粮食单产、总产等农业技术变量对耕地非农化水平具有最大的逆向影响。最后在模型拟合的基础上提出了相应的对策与建议,旨在为合理有效保护耕地提供参考。     

Influence of Soil Particle Size on the Measurement of Sodium by Near-Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

This study evaluates the effect of soil particle size (SPS) on the measurement of exchangeable sodium (Na) (EXC-Na) by near-infrared reflectance (NIR) spectroscopy. Three hundred thirty-two (n = 332) top soil samples (0–10 cm) were taken from different locations across Uruguay, analyzed by EXC-Na using emission spectrometry, and scanned in reflectance using a NIR spectrophotometer (1100–2500 nm). Partial least squares (PLS) and principal component regression (PCR) models between reference chemical data and NIR data were developed using cross validation (leaving one out). The coefficient of determination in calibration (R²) and the root mean square of the standard error of cross validation (RMSECV) for EXC-Na concentration were 0.44 (RMSECV: 0.12 mg kg^–1) for soil with small particle size (SPS-0.053) and 0.77 (RMSECV: 0.09 mg kg^–1) for soils with particle sizes greater than 0.212 mm (SPS-0.212), using the NIR region after second derivative as mathematical transformation. The R² and RMSECV for EXC-Na concentration using PCR were 0.54 (RMSECV: 0.07 mg kg^–1) and 0.80 (RMSECV: 0.03 mg kg^–1) for SPS-0.053 and SPS-0.212 samples, respectively.     

品种区域试验主要决选指标及其参数的研究——Ⅳ.参数数量分类与区试品种分类

本文根据变量理论分布对区试中b值及CV值参数的数量分类,提出了适于目前普及推广的查表计算法。在此基础上,对区试品种提出了按主要生产性能指标以量定性的评定分类体系。从而推出可排除主观随意性干扰、较为完整严密的区试汇总模式,并以范例作了运用说明。     

Pathological analysis of batch safety testing of veterinary vaccines using small laboratory animals

Batch safety tests (BSTs) of veterinary vaccines are conducted using small laboratory animals to assure the safety of vaccines according to several criteria, including clinical signs and change in body weight. Although the latter is used as an evaluation index in BSTs, there have been no reports on the internal changes that affect body weight during the test period. Therefore, we analyzed BST via pathological examination of the tested animals. Here, BSTs were performed for 176 batches using mice and 126 batches using of guinea pigs. Most of the gross findings could be classified into four lesion types (nodules, adhesions, ascites, no apparent signs), with only one vaccine inducing lesions that could not be classified into any of these four types. Histopathological examination revealed that the reactions caused by BST were pyogenic and/or granulomatous inflammation. Nodular or adhesive lesions comprised more severe pyogenic granulomatous inflammation than ascites or cases with no apparent gross lesions. These nodular or adhesive lesions were more frequently induced by vaccines that contained an adjuvant than by vaccines that did not contain an adjuvant. The cases with “exceptional” gross findings histologically presented severe necrosis of the hematopoietic system. Additional testing showed that these “exceptional” lesions were induced when a specific type of light liquid paraffin was injected along with other vaccine additives. Our results show that body weight loss and/or lesions during BST were induced by proinflammatory properties of the tested vaccines and that BST is a sensitive method for detecting unexpected effects of vaccine components.