近期我国稻谷(米)供求趋势分析及发展预测与对策

本文分析了20年来我国水稻生产、消费和贸易的变化,认为只有"保红线(即保种植面积3 000万hm2,稻谷总产2亿t)攻单产"才能保证我国稻谷95%以上的自给率。并预测了2030年我国稻谷的供求趋势,认为只要确保种植面积年增长率达0.4%、总产年增长率达1.0%,供求关系将趋平衡,并略有节余。为确保我国中期稻谷生产与消费趋于合理区间,提出了"六保"发展措施。     

改进RBF神经网络在我国大豆价格预测中的应用研究

我国大豆价格受国内外多种因素共同影响,具有非线性、随机性和高噪音等特点,采用传统数学模型进行预测,不仅分析难度大,预测误差也很大。RBF神经网络以其优良的逼近性能而被广泛应用于非线性时间序列预测之中。本文提出一种基于遗传算法优化RBF神经网络的我国大豆价格预测模型,该模型为多维输入单维输出的多变量预测模型,模型的初始输入由大豆价格的历史数据和相关影响因素数据组成。采用遗传算法对RBF神经网络输入层节点数、基函数中心、扩展常数和输出层权值进行优化,模型可以从初始输入变量中自主选择最合适的输入变量组合作为模型的输入。采用2009-2014年的大豆价格数据进行预测研究,用2009-2013年的数据作为训练集,2014年的数据作为测试集,改进RBF神经网络通过自主识别和选取中国大豆进口量、中国消费者信心指数和进口大豆到港分销价格3个因素作为相关影响因素的输入。结果表明:模型预测精度较高、泛化能力较强,能够很好捕捉大豆价格变化规律,可为大豆市场价格的准确预报提供参考借鉴。     

粮食生产潜力短期预测的“趋势-波动模型”的验证

应用全国、31个省、6个典型地区和16个典型县的数据对粮食生产潜力短期预测的"趋势-波动模型"进行了系统性的验证和讨论。研究结果表明:(1)预测误差大小反映短期生产潜力的预测精度,预测误差大的主要原因是经济发达地区高产农田被大量占用和(或)蔬菜、水果种植面积大幅度增加而短期内使粮食单产下降;(2)小趋势修正方法是"趋势-波动模型"中不可缺少的一部分,它能将大趋势预测不能包括的短期如气象因素、科技投入、社会因素等影响纳入预测中,提高预测精度;(3)就我国近些年来的实际情况而言,越是经济发达的地区短期生产潜力的波动越大;同样发达地区短期潜力存在增加-下降-回升阶段;(4)就短期生产潜力预测精度而言:国家级大于省级、省级大于地区级、地区级大于县级;不同省、不同地区、不同县之间预测精度差别比较大,这与境内气候的互补性和农田抗御自然灾害的能力有关。     

基于Lasso和支持向量机的组合预测及其应用

针对Lasso方法与支持向量机两者的联系与各自的优势，给出了基于Lasso与支持向量机的串联型、并联型和嵌入型三种组合预测，并将它们运用到我国粮食价格预测中.实证结果表明，与单一预测方法的预测结果相比，基于Lasso方法与支持向量机的串联型组合预测和嵌入型组合预测具有更高的预测精度.     

Economic performance and comparative riskiness of different management practices for control of botrytis fruit rot in florida strawberry

Florida strawberry farmers usually rely on weekly calendar fungicide applications to prevent yield loss from Botrytis fruit rot (BFR). The Strawberry Advisory System (SAS), which helps optimize the timing of fungicide applications, is an additional tool in the farmers' arsenal of disease control options. This study uses data from two-year production trials in Florida combined with historical strawberry prices to measure the economic performance of the Calendar and SAS-based BFR management practices under output price risk and producers' risk preferences. We use Monte Carlo simulation to model the effect of the variability in weekly output prices on farm returns. Results reveal that the traditional calendar-based system is not the least risky BFR management option as growers expected to be. SAS-based options such as SAS-Switch and SAS-Luna would be preferred by both risk-neutral and risk-averse producers and are recommended under high disease pressure conditions.     

河北省玉米产量灰色理论分析与预测

为了解河北省玉米产量变化的规律,明确今后育种工作的目标和前景,利用灰色系统理论的GM（1,1）模型,依据1980-2003年河北省审定的玉米品种的区域试验产量,建立预测模型为：^X（k＋1）^（1）=324 818.583 945e^0.018524-318 652.083 945。并在生产因素保持相对稳定的条件下,据此模型对河北省玉米生产进行规划性预测,为生产的规划与决策提供科学依据。预测结果表明,在挖掘耕地资源和非耕地资源的生产潜力,提高农业资源综合生产能力的情况下,河北省的玉米产量将在2030年有可能达到15 052.6 kg/hm^2。     

Regression Applied in Continuous Mathematical Forecast

Data Mining can distill the connotative, unknown and potential value information or pattern from many data. It is a problem that must be settled during the developing of Decision Support System how to discover knowledge from Data Warehouse. In order to realize the continuous mathematical forecast that will be used in the Marketing Decision Support System for Industrial Enterprise, the authors use the method of regression to discuss how to design the algorithm for Data Mining, how to design the model for Data Mining, and so on. When the algorithm applied to the sales forecast, the result processing to simulation data indicates it can realize the expected effect.     

Determination to Weighting Coefficient of Combination Forecast Based on Rough Set Theory

The problem of determination to weighting coefficient is a key and difficulty for combination forecast. A method of determining weighting coefficient based on rough set theory is showed in this paper. Determining weighting coefficient is translated into estimating significance of attributes among rough set. A relation data model about combination forecast is established. Knowledge systems are built through making attribute value into eigenvalue. Under data moving, the weighting coefficients of a combination forecast model are computed by analyzing the dependence and significance of forecasting method for the predicted object. The proposed approach overcomes the subjectivity of traditional determination to weighting coefficient, avoids computing linear or nonlinear extremum problem and makes combination forecast more objective. The validity of the proposed approach is verified with a case.     

Simulation of High Pressure Startu Poil Pum Pof Turbine

Dynamic mathematical model, which is based on the character of the 200 MW tubine lbricating oil system, is established by means of modularization. On the basis of dynamic mathematical models, simulation model of the startu Pprocess of hign pressure startu Poil pum Pis created with the Visual Fortran language. The validity of this model has been verified by the simulation experiments and analysis. The simulation helps to forecast the dynamic characteristic to high pressure startu Poil pum Pand have some directive significance to design method of lubricating oil system.     

地理信息系统在环境影响评价中的应用

为了研究地理信息系统（GIS）在环境影响评价中的应用，在介绍地理信息系统的组成、类型、功能和应用领域的基础上，分析了GIS技术在环境影响评价中的优势，并结合实例，探讨了地理信息系统在水环境影响评价中的具体应用过程。