辽东山地混牧林经济分析

混牧林业是森林生态系统开发利用的一个重要组成部分。发展混牧林业直接关系到山地农村经济发展与环境改善和农民收入的提高。通过对辽东山地主要树种的林牧结合经营模式的实地观察调查,并采取回归分析和净现值计算,结果证实:混牧林业可以直接提高森林资源经营的经济效益,并且有较高的经济阈值,但对林分蓄积增长有负面影响,应适度控制载畜量和禁止在幼林下放牧。     

硬岩抗剪强度参数的最优化确定法

为了减小岩工程分析计算的工作量和节约研究经费,须利用有限的室内实验样本的测定值,通过对有限实验样本数据的回归分析整理,确定岩石抗剪强度参数c、φ,进而估计岩体的抗剪强度c、φ.由于试验方法、试验条件等有一定局限性,因而,岩石力学参数的试验结果具有一定的不确定性.其不确定性包含随机性和模糊性.而用传统的数理统计方法处理岩石样本值,显然是不合适的,只有通过寻求最优的数学回归分析方法,来处理相关试验结果.笔者通过对硬岩变角度剪切实验和常规三轴压缩实验的数据回归分析,得到利用最小二乘法的抛物线回归分析结果和随机-模糊回归分析结果比较符合.因而,为了优化计算结果而又避免繁琐的计算,通常可以采用最小二乘法的抛物线回归分析计算代替随机-模糊回归分析相关结果.     

Heat budget and statistical analysis of the relationship between stream temperature and riparian forest in the Toikanbetsu River basin, northern Japan

Riparian forests greatly influence aquatic ecosystems by providing shade cover, which controls water temperature and limits primary production. We examined the relationship between forest cover and summer stream temperature in northernmost Japan. Heat budget and statistical analyses were employed and the results were compared. Heat budget analysis revealed that the water temperature would decrease almost linearly from 29°C to 25°C with an increase in forested reaches along a 3.2 km stretch of the river. Multiple regression analysis by the stepwise method chose only open channel length as a variable to explain the variation in maximum stream temperature. A sharp increase in stream temperature was noted when riparian forest cover was removed in short lengths, of up to 1.0km; this increasing trend gradually flattened as the length of open stretch increased. Thus, even small openings in the riparian canopy resulted in drastic rises in summer stream temperature. The maximum summer temperatures estimated by the two methods were coincided, and can therefore be accurately estimated by regression analysis. Retrospective analysis based on the regression equation showed that the maximum summer temperature in 1947 was 6°C lower than at present, and that a sharp increase occurred from 1947 to 1960, a period of rapid expansion of agricultural land development in the watershed.     

Height–diameter equations for boreal tree species in Ontario using a mixed-effects modeling approach

Height–diameter relationships based on stand characteristics (trees/ha, basal area, and dominant stand height) were investigated for balsam fir, balsam poplar, black spruce, jack pine, red pine, trembling aspen, white birch, and white spruce using data from permanent growth study plots in northern Ontario, Canada. Approximately half the data were used to estimate model parameters with the rest used for model evaluation. Multiple Chapman–Richards functions with parameters expressed in terms of various stand characteristics were fit to determine the best models for predicting height.     

外界生态因子对油茶品质影响的研究

对21个地区58个油茶物种(或优良品种)进行了含油率、脂肪酸组成、碘值和粗蛋白质等化学品质的分析。通过选取14个不同地区的普通油茶(Camellia oleifera Abel)的品质与19个生态因子进行多元线性逐步回归分析,揭示了不饱和脂肪酸含量与纬度成明显的正相关;种仁蛋白质含量与8、9月份的降雨量呈负相关的趋势。品质之间的相关分析表明:不饱和脂肪酸含量与蛋白质含量存在明显的负相关关系;不同物种之间,其不饱和脂肪酸含量与果实的大小成负相关。     

黄土高原半干旱区油松人工林林冠截留模型及其参数特征研究

利用2008—2011年定位观测数据,采用回归分析方法对黄土高原半干旱区油松人工林林冠截留与林外降雨之间的关系进行建模研究,并运用Bootstrap方法,对模型参数特征进行分析。结果表明:林冠截留量(I)与林外降雨量(P)可用非线性模型I=a Pb进行回归模拟,回归方程为I=0.584P0.576;该模型不仅具有较高的拟合精度,且拟合方程参数稳定性良好,经检验,方程均达到显著性要求,可在该区域油松人工林应用。     

印楝实生苗年生长规律研究

研究了1年生印楝实生苗生长动态、苗木生物量积累与分配模式以及苗木生长与气象因子的关系,结果表明:印楝苗的年生长规律符合Logistic曲线特征,据此方程可以建立苗高、地径与生长时间的拟合模型,结合二次多项式对苗木连日生长量的动态模拟,可将苗木生长划分为4个阶段:出苗期、生长初期、速生期和生长后期,其中处于速生阶段苗木的高和地径生长量均超过全年总量的70%,地径处于生长初期阶段的时间短于苗高,但生长量占全年总量之比是苗高的2倍;苗木生物量积累与苗高和地径的相关性极为密切,其中地上部分生物量占全株的69.1%,全株含水量是干质量的1.58倍;在制约苗木生长节律的气象因子中,偏相关分析表明:温度是苗木生长的主导因子.     

Using model scenarios to predict and evaluate forest-management impacts on soil base saturation at landscape level

Silviculture, forest conversion and technical tools of ecosystem management, such as forest liming, display their effects at the landscape level. Therefore their planning and control should take place at the same scale. The primary objective of this work was to assess soil chemical properties and their changes in relationship to ecosystem management, especially forest conversion and forest liming. We calculated scenario models, based on regression analysis, which allow such an examination in the context of understanding landscape processes which can be expected to operate in the sampling region. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was used to predict soil chemical attributes (base saturation, pH, C/N content and stock, exchangeable stocks of Ca and Mg) as indicators of site stability or off-site effects of forest ecosystems such as effects on clean drinking water from forested watersheds. Because of space limitations, in this paper only the modelling results of base saturation are presented. Base saturation was used as an integrative example for other soil chemical properties. The transformation of measurements to the regional scale, i.e., the regionalization, was calculated for the forested parts of two test regions in the Black Forest on the basis of measured chemical properties of 90–150 soil profiles per test region. The models have a spatial resolution of 50×50 m, which is a spatial scale relevant for forestry practice and forest management. Topographic variables (e.g., elevation, aspect, slope gradient, and slope length), the stratigraphic classification of the geologic substrate, stand characteristics from forest inventory data, and finally technical information about forest liming were the auxiliary variables (secondary site properties) that provided indirect information about base saturation and were available for the whole forested area of the test regions. Base saturation could be predicted with an accuracy of ~50–70% (in terms of the multiple R²) by using these properties as predictor variables in multiple linear regression analyses. The explained proportion of variance was unexpectedly high considering the high geomorphological heterogeneity of the two test regions. Based upon the regionalization models, it was possible to establish scenarios showing the landscape-related effects on base saturation that may be achieved by forest conversion towards a higher proportion of forests with broad-leaved mixed stands and by forest liming. These scenarios allow the interactions between several influencing factors and management strategies and the impacts on the target variable to be synoptically judged. Thus the presented regionalization models achieve the role of decision support tools for the planning of forest management at the landscape level. They allow an assessment of the environmental effects of forest management strategies in terms of site sustainability or preservation of water resources in forested catchments.     

红外光谱结合多元线性回归法快速测定木塑复合材料中木粉含量

采用KBr压片法对杉木/聚丙烯(PP)复合材料样品进行了红外光谱分析,确定杉木特征吸收谱带为1740~1730、1610~1590、1270~1260、1060~1050以及1040~1030 cm-1,以PP在1377 cm-1处吸收强度(I)为内标,对木塑复合材料(WPC)中木粉含量和杉木特征峰相对吸收强度进行相关性分析,并采用逐步多元线性回归法建立木粉含量与相对峰强间的多元线性回归方程。结果表明,选取I(1060-1050)/I1377、I(1270-1260)/I1377为回归变量建立的二元线性回归方程和以I(1060-1050)/I1377、I(1040-1030)/I1377及I(1270-1260)/I1377为回归变量建立的三元线性回归方程,具有较高的预测精度。木粉含量的预测值和参照值之间具有强烈的相关性,校正决定系数(R2c)超过0.98,验证决定系数(R2p)超过0.96。外部验证结果表明,线性回归方程预测准确性较高,预测相对偏差范围为0.9%至7.4%,其中三元线性回归方程预测准确性稍好于二元线性回归方程。     

基于 GIS 的中国草地合理载畜量空间化

天然草地合理载畜量是反映草地合理利用强度的基本单位。为提高草地合理载畜量的划分精度,根据“极大似然逼近原理”,创建了异质因子控制下的“线性回归+区域化值残差修正”数据空间化方法。以全国草地资源调查汇总数据中县域理论载畜量和1∶400万中国草地资源图为基础数据,采用分省控制构建了理论载畜量与植被类型-生产力异质植被斑块的线性回归模型,其判定系数由全国模型下的0.867提高到0.937,拟合优势度较高,所获得的中国公里格网草地合理载畜量分布图空间化精度也较高。中国公里格网草地合理载畜量分布图不仅表明了不同类草地因生产力的不同有不同的放牧要求,也体现了不同环境条件下草地载畜能力的差别,有效反映了单位面积内草地植被载畜-生产力水平,为生态治理和草地资源保育工作中合理制定草地利用强度提供了理论参考。