This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.
In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.
Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.
Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society. 相似文献
Abrasive belt grinding experiments of Zr-4 nuclear power tube are carried out by using three different abrasive belts with same size, and the interactive generating mechanism between abrasive and workpiece is analyzed, the main factors of material removal rate and surface roughness of Zr-4 alloys are obtained. With the help of the advanced test facilities, the abrasive grain abrasion and surface topography of the workpiece are observed. The metallographic structure and microhardness of the layer of burnt surface during Zr-4 alloys Grinding are analyzed. Some conclusions are given as follows: the material removal rate and surface roughness are mainly affected by the factors of belt speed, grinding pressure, hardness of the contact wheel and abrasive type, of which, the belt speed is the strongest factor. The adhesion wear of the Zirconium corundum and aluminium oxide abrasive grit is more serious, the most important wear form of silicon carbide is abrasion wear. With the onset of grinding burn, the mechanical properties of Zr-4 alloys are deteriorated obviously. The results provide a theoretical and experimental basis for technical optimization in the grinding of Zr-4 alloys with efficiency and high quality. 相似文献