基于粒子群算法优化BP神经网络的土壤含水量短期预测模型

为提高土壤含水量预测精度,基于物联网监测数据,提出了粒子群算法(PSO)优化BP神经网络的土壤含水量预测方法。首先应用主成分分析法筛选出影响土壤含水量的关键影响因子,然后构建8-5-1的BP神经网络拓扑结构,应用粒子群算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值。结果表明:与传统BP神经网络相比,新模型优化了网络结构,避免了陷入局部最优解,具有良好的预测效果;模型的评价指标平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分误差、误差均方根分别为0.259 2、0.010 5和0.135 6,与单一BP神经网络相比,预测精度更高,可满足实际的土壤含水量预测的需要。     

互联网背景下的食用菌产业现状和机遇及发展对策

介绍了我国互联网发展背景下食用菌产业发展现状,给出了食用菌产业在转变经济发展方式中所面临的问题和困难,并对整个产业发展的源动力和发展路径进行了分析。在此基础上,采用数学模型对食用菌的物流成本进行了核算;在互联网飞速发展的条件下,食用菌产业可以尝试订单生产模式等一些新型的商业来积极寻求转型升级,整合互联网资源,共同应对机遇和挑战,从而达到合作共赢、共同发展的目标。     

Improving wood volume predictions in dry tropical forest in the semi-arid Brazil

The volumetric variability of dry tropical forests in Brazil and the scarcity of studies on the subject show the need for the development of techniques that make it possible to obtain adequate and accurate wood volume estimates. In this study, we analyzed a database of thinning trees from a forest management plan in the Contendas de Sincorá National Forest, southwestern Bahia State, Brazil. The data set included a total of 300 trees with a trunk diameter ranging from 5 to 52 cm. Adjustments, validation and statistical selection of four volumetric models were performed. Due to the difference in height values for the same diameter and the low correlation between both variables, we do not suggest models which only use the diameter at breast height (DBH) variable as a predictor because they accommodate the largest estimation errors. In comparing the best single entry model (Hohenald-Krenn) with the Spurr model (best fit model), it is noted that the exclusion of height as a predictor causes the values of 136.44 and 0.93 for Akaike information criterion (AIC) and adjusted determination coefficient (R2 adj), which are poorer than the second best model (Schumacher-Hall). Regarding the minimum sample size, errors in estimation (root mean square error (RMSE) and bias) of the best model decrease as the sample size increases, especially when a larger number of trees with DBH≥15.0 cm are randomly sampled. Stratified sampling by diameter class produces smaller volume prediction errors than random sampling, especially when considering all trees. In summary, the Spurr and Schumacher-Hall models perform better. These models suggest that the total variance explained in the estimates is not less than 95%, producing reliable forecasts of the total volume with shell. Our estimates indicate that the bias around the average is not greater than 7%. Our results support the decision to use regression methods to build models and estimate their parameters, seeking stratification strategies in diameter classes for the sample trees. Volume estimates with valid confidence intervals can be obtained using the Spurr model for the studied dry forest. Stratified sampling of the data set for model adjustment and selection is necessary, since we find significant results with mean error square root values and bias of up to 70% of the total database.     

泥石流多发区土地荒漠化程度模糊综合评判研究

根据对小江流域泥石流沟谷土地荒漠化影响因子的分析和筛选,选择切割密度、土壤有机质、泥石流堆积物面积、植被盖度等8个对土地荒漠化有较大影响的因子,从地貌、土壤、植被三方面建立层次分析模型。针对土地景观生态系统的复杂性和模糊性,在建立评价指标体系的基础上,采用模糊综合评判的方法,对土地荒漠化程度进行了定量评价。     

Generation of a uniform thymic malignant lymphoma model with C57BL/6J p53 gene deficient mice

Lymphoma is the third most common cancer diagnosed in children, and T-cell lymphoma has the worst prognosis based on clinical observations. To date, a lymphoma model with uniform penetrance has not yet been developed. In this study, we generated a p53 deficient mouse model by targeting embryonic stem cells derived from a C57BL/6J mouse strain. Homozygous p53 deficient mice exhibited a higher rate of spontaneous tumorigenesis, with a high spontaneous occurrence rate (93.3%) of malignant lymphoma. Because tumor models with high phenotypic consistency are currently needed, we generated a lymphoma model by a single intraperitoneal injection of 37.5 or 75 mg/kg N-methyl-N-nitrosourea to p53 deficient mice. Lymphoma and retinal degeneration occurred in 100% of p53^+/− mice administered with higher concentrations of N-methyl-N-nitrosourea, a much greater response than those of previously reported models. The main anatomic sites of lymphoma were the thymus, spleen, bone marrow, and lymph nodes. Both induced and spontaneous lymphomas in the thymus and spleen stained positive for CD3 antigen, and flow cytometry detected positive CD4 and/or CD8 cells. Based on our observations and previous data, we hypothesize that mice with a B6 background are prone to lymphomagenesis.     

Rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence: seed source and spatial pattern

A programme of field trials for the study of the winter barley–Rhynchosporium commune pathosystem is reported. The associated seedborne disease rhynchosporium leaf scald is regarded as having an important impact on barley yields. The analysis in this study relates to the impact of the seed source (commercial or farm-saved seed) on disease incidence and to the spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence. Disease incidence data were calculated from field data recorded as disease severity. Mean disease incidence was higher in the crops grown from farm-saved seed than in those grown from commercial seed, although great agronomic significance cannot be attached to this result. The spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence was characterized in terms of the binary power law (BPL) and was indicative of an aggregated pattern. Programme-wide BPL results were described using a novel phytopathological application of a random coefficients model. These results have application in field sampling for rhynchosporium leaf scald disease.     

基于光合有效辐射瞬时值估算日均值的方法

光合有效辐射是太阳辐射的一部分,是植被进行光合作用和陆地生态系统碳循环的核心因素,对估算植被生产力具有重要影响。本文基于SURFRAD多年观测数据,建立了一个线性回归模型,由上午、下午瞬时光合有效辐射值估算日均值。该模型模拟效果较好,单个观测站的均方误差低于9 W·m^-2,判定系数不低于0.96,并适用于不同经纬度、气候条件和海拔高度下的区域,总的均方误差为8.863 1 W·m^-2,判定系数R2为0.977,表明该模型和方法有较好的可行性和可靠性。     

沿黄荒漠绿洲区生态廊道与生态节点识别及景观格局优化——以磴口县为例

沿黄荒漠绿洲区景观格局构建及优化对防治土地荒漠化、促进生态可持续发展具有重要意义。以磴口为研究区,分析2005—2020年磴口景观类型时空演变特征,结合最小累积阻力（MCR）模型、电路理论和水文分析法综合识别生态廊道和生态节点,利用重力模型和景观连接度指数判断生态廊道和生态节点重要性,构建磴口荒漠绿洲区景观格局并提出优化建议。结果表明：1）2005—2020年磴口主要植被景观中,耕地规模最大且持续扩张,草地呈先增加后减少趋势,林地则持续缩减;2）识别出重要草地生态源地8块,重要生态廊道99条和重要生态节点345个。以耕地和草地类型为主,均位于研究区中部和东南部;3）提取出需重点优化生态障碍点面积159.83 km²,需重点优化生态夹点面积81.18 km²,分别位于研究区西北部和中部区域;4）最后,从维持南部并扩大西北部生态源地规模、打通并优化重要林草生态廊道和生态节点、生态障碍点和生态夹点等多方面提出荒漠绿洲区景观格局优化建议。本研究可为荒漠绿洲区生态环境规划提供重要科学依据。     

基于地表水目标水质的畜禽粪便水环境承载力估算

针对南方水网地区畜禽养殖业发展受限问题,以浙江省江山港流域为研究对象,实地调研核定流域水污染物来源途径与入河污染负荷量;基于QUAL2K模型,建立地表水水质响应模型,评估江山港流域在达到目标水质时的畜禽粪便水环境承载力;运用情景分析法探究畜禽养殖与地表水水质响应关系。结果表明：1)2020年江山港流域入河负荷量为190.564 t（以氨氮计）,土壤流失、污水处理厂、化肥施用、有机肥施用和水产养殖分别占总负荷的70.0%、14.8%、11.0%、2.8%和1.4%。2）当水质目标设定为达到Ⅰ类和优于Ⅱ类时,江山港流域能承载畜禽最大养殖量分别为133.5万和1 622.1万头猪当量,当前养殖规模未超载。3）江山港流域地表水水质对畜禽养殖量的响应关系弱,畜禽养殖不是流域水环境保护的制约因素。建议江山港流域加强生态沟渠的建设与管理,协同实现畜禽养殖业发展与水环境保护。     

基于浑浊度监测山区河流悬浮泥沙含量的试验研究

针对山区河流悬浮泥沙含量监测缺乏实时性的问题,对浑浊度及悬浮泥沙含量进行监测,分析光照强度、流速、颗粒粒径和水体含沙量对浑浊度的影响,建立浑浊度与悬浮泥沙含量的关系模型式。结果表明： 1）光照强度对浑浊度的影响最大,根据二者之间的关系,将光照强度（E）划分为3个区间：E≤6 800 lx、6 800 lx <E≤22 000 lx、E>22 000 lx,对应于3个区间,确定了浑浊度与悬浮泥沙含量的关系模型; 2）水流流速主要影响上层泥沙颗粒的分布,流速为0.16 m/s时测量区域的浑浊度大于流速为0.018 m/s时的浑浊度; 3）泥沙颗粒的粒径大于扬动流速能带动的临界粒径时,其会沉积在渠底,因此,泥沙级配中大于临界粒径的颗粒占比越大,悬浮泥沙含量越小,浑浊度越小; 4）水体含沙量越大,水沙输移过程中携带悬浮泥沙的量也越多,测量区域上层水样的浑浊度越大; 5）采用本研究确定的浑浊度与悬浮泥沙含量的3个关系模型,预测得到的悬浮泥沙含量与实际悬浮泥沙含量的平均相对误差分别为7.22%、10.00%、8.58%。根据在自然条件下不同光照强度区间测得的浑浊度,可以得出该测量区域的悬浮泥沙含量。由于浑浊度可以现场连续、快速测得,所以将此方法引入山区河流悬浮含沙量实时监测是可行的。