金融系统ARCH模型及应用

针对金融数据具有丛集性与异方差性的特征，给出了最能反映这一特征的研究方法，在此基础上，比较系统地介绍了ＡＲＣＨ模型及其若干变形，参数估计与假设检验，讨论了金融系统ＡＲＣＨ模型的应用前景。     

基于信息公理的车间布局问题评价方法

车间布局评价问题属于典型多属性决策问题.为了使信息公理更适合于解决多属性决策问题,通过增加满意度项改进了原有的信息量计算方法.属性值被划分为精确型、不确定型和模糊型,同时针对效益性、成本性、定值性和区间性属性给出了这三种数值类型的信息量的计算办法.改进后的信息量同时反映系统的成功概率以及决策者满意程度,并能够对包含多种数值类型的多属性决策问题进行评价.最后,作为实例,对焊接装配车间的布局方案进行了评价,结果验证了所改进的信息公理对于解决多属性决策问题的可行性和有效性.     

中温固化型PF树脂胶粘剂的研制

将竹帘胶合板的"冷进冷出"工艺改造成"热进热出"工艺,关键技术是降低热压温度,而一种中温固化型的酚醛树脂是实现该技术的主要条件.选取树脂反应终点的粘度、甲醛、氢氧化钠与苯酚的摩尔比、促进剂加量4个主要因素,以每个因素三个不同水平进行正交试验,合成各种不同配方的胶粘剂,然后进行竹帘胶合板的压制.通过对制品耐沸水性和耐老化性的检验,确定适合中温固化酚醛树脂的最佳工艺参数为:胶粘剂反应终点的粘度为1.08 Pa·s,甲醛、氢氧化钠与苯酚的摩尔比分别为1.75和0.30,促进剂加量为苯酚质量的4%.按这组参数合成的酚醛树脂胶粘剂可以在105～115℃的中温条件下实现快速和完全固化.     

FORESTAR：A decision—support system for multi—objective forest management in Northeast China

Past monoculture forestry in China has contributed to countrywide ecological disasters and economic difficulties in forestry regions. China‘s new forestry programs, Natural Forest Conservation Program and Returning Farmlands to Forests Program, provide opportunities for ecosystem management of mountain forests in China. A decision support system, FORE-STAR, has been developed for better managing and protecting natural forests in Changbai Mountain area. It uses GIS-based forest inventory data at a scale of forestry bureau. The first version contains two sub-modules: forest operation and forest res-toration. Under each sub-module, users can compare several decision options and make optimal choices. It can help field for-esters, forest managers, and policy makers make multi-objective and consistent decisions in planning forest management at hierarchical administrative scales.     

居住区植物造景初探

居住区是居民最直接的生活空间,居住区环境的好坏直接关系到居民的生活质量,其环境的建设应以改善和维护小区生态平衡为宗旨,以人与自然和谐为目标。通过分析国外居住区植物造景动态和国内居住区植物造景现状,提出了居住区植物造景发展趋势。     

决策分析中两种模糊综合评价模型的应用

模糊综合评价是决策分析中常用的方法,在不同的情况中应该采用不同的模型进行综合评价.介绍了两种评价模型.它们在出发点、建立方法、评价内容和实现过程上各不相同,各有千秋.相对模糊综合评价建模简单,运算方便,但不能确定方案本身的优劣程度.而多级模糊综合评价能区分影响因素的层次,降低了权重分配的难度,能判断出方案本身的好坏,但建模相对复杂,运算工作量大,隶属度构建复杂.     

改良扑杀策略的意义、制定与实施

本文对世界动物卫生组织（OIE）改良扑杀的定义进行了介绍,并进行了释义;又通过对美国口蹄疫应急策略中的3种改良扑杀政策原则的分析,阐述了该决策的选择和实施中需要考虑的因素;通过解读澳大利亚兽医应急预案（AUSVETPLAN）疾病防控策略中3种不同动物疫情防控中改良扑杀策略,分析了疫情特点对策略的选择和实施的影响;通过介绍越南禽流感等典型的改良扑杀策略的应用实例,说明了改良细节所需保障措施;综上得出改良扑杀策略是疫情控制和根除的优选策略之一的结论,提出了我国制定和实施改良扑杀政策的建议。     

Numerical modeling of chaotic behavior for small-scale movements of demersal fishes in coastal water

ABSTRACT:   The presented model involves the application of chaos theory to generate fish movements resulting from environmental stimuli. The model uses three steps within a model neural network such as input stimuli, central decision making and response output resulting in fish movements. The stimuli in the first step include the main abiotic and biotic factors, which could be quantified as an intensity parameter that was then normalized as a ratio between 0 and 1. The decision-making process can be generated using chaos dynamics with the stimuli parameters. The response of fish movements from the output signal representing movement speed and direction of fish can be re-regulated as main movement pattern depending on physiological state or life cycle by third response filtering. The simulation results seen as a movement pattern for sea bream and flounder using this neural chaotic model fitted very well to the observations of fish tracked in the sea by ultrasonic tracking methods. It was also revealed that the fish movement components generated as movement velocity and direction when in tidal flow had similar patterns to those patterns seen in field observations with similar irregular and chaotic variations with time.     

违规惩戒与企业信贷资源——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

以因违规被处罚的上市公司为样本,考察处罚决定是否会影响企业的银行贷款。研究发现:在处罚公告后,违规企业的年度新增银行贷款额会比公告前年度降低;处罚决定越严厉,被处罚企业的年度新增银行贷款额下降越多。此外,处罚决定越严厉,被处罚企业的年度新增银行贷款额下降越多这一现象主要存在于市场化程度较高的地区,而在市场化程度较低地区并不明显。最后这一现象更多存在于民营企业而非国有企业中。