A MULTI -OBJECTIVE FUZZY DECISION -MAKING APPROACH FOR POWER NETWORK PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

This paper proposes a multi - objective fuzzy decision - making approach for power network planning under uncertainty ,which simutaneously considers not only the least investment cost,the minimum power loss,the maximum reliability,and the least environmental impacts, but also the uncertainty about the future load growth and the capital investment availability. The validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified with numerical examples.     

Monitoring forage production for farmers’ decision making

Objective management of grazing livestock production systems needs monitoring of forage production at the managerial unit level. Our objectives were to develop a system that routinely estimates forage above-ground net primary production (ANPP) at the spatial and temporal resolution required by farmers in the Pampas of Argentina, and to facilitate adoption of the system by end users as a managerial support tool. Our approach was based on the radiation use efficiency (RUE) logic, which proposes that ANPP is determined by the amount of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy (APAR), and the efficiency with which that energy is transformed in above-ground dry matter (radiation use efficiency, RUE). APAR is the product of incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and the fraction absorbed by the canopy (fPAR). We estimated fPAR as a non-linear function of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). RUE was empirically estimated for the two principal forage resources of the region, yielding the following relations: ANPP = 0.6 × APAR + 12, (R² = 0.86; p < 0.001; n = 18) for the upland sown pastures, and ANPP = 0.27 × APAR + 26, (R² = 0.74; p < 0.001; n = 18) for the lowland naturalized pastures, with ANPP in g/m²/60 days and APAR in MJ/m²/60 days. The models were able to predict independent ANPP values with acceptable accuracy. Computational procedures were automated and run in a Relational Data Base Manager System that stored and managed all the information. The system is currently monitoring 212,794 ha in 83 farms and provides monthly ANPP values for the previous month and a history of the last 6 years. The data so generated show ANPP differences between the two major forage resources, considerable variability of a given month’s ANPP among years and paddocks, and contrasting among-farm differences in the efficiency of conversion of ANPP and forage supplements into beef production. The system was well accepted by end users who utilize it mainly for making near real time decisions according to last month ANPP, and explaining results of previous production cycles by incorporating ANPP as an explicative variable. However, there were differences among farmers in the degree of utilization, apparently related to the advisor’s attitude toward this new technology. Our results indicate that (1) forage production of large extensions can be monthly monitored at the paddock level by a small laboratory with capabilities in geographic information systems, and (2) advisors and farmers apply this information to their managerial decisions.     

基于人工神经网络技术的蔬菜施肥决策研究

阐述神经网络的概念和特点，着重介绍BP神经网络并在Maflab环境下建立基于BP神经网络的施肥模型，以土壤养分（氮、磷、钾)和实际产量为模型输入，以氮肥、磷肥和钾肥的施用量为模型数输出．进行网络训练，直至获得满意的施肥模型。结合投入产出物的价格对模型功能进行扩展，按利润最大化目标进行施肥决策。     

Combining deliberative and computer-based methods for multi-objective land-use planning

This paper reports the outcomes of a deliberative workshop comparing land-use plans proposed by land-manager or domain experts with those derived using a computer-based decision support system (DSS). The DSS integrates four main components, a geographic information system, land-use systems simulation models, impact assessments and land-use planning tools. The land-use planning tools draw on the other components to generate and evaluate alternative patterns of land use and management. Since the land-use planning tools are based on multi-objective genetic algorithms (mGAs) it is possible to generate a range of alternative plans that define the structure of the trade-off between the objectives. The workshop tasked the delegates with specifying land-use plans that achieved the best compromise between two objectives known to be non-commensurable and conflicting. The nature of the best compromise was dependent on their individual perspectives. The delegates proposed allocations both as individuals and in researcher-facilitated sub-groups. The mGA allocations were then compared with those derived by delegates and were found to be broadly similar in performance. Differences in the range of allocations considered feasible were explained by the hard and soft constraints on allocations agreed between the delegates and articulated within the workshop process. The hypothesis that part of the difference in performance between the mGA and delegate allocations was due to the delegates blocking together fields with the same land use for convenience of management was proved. The analysis of the group allocations revealed that the decision-making process had failed to improve on the individual allocations. From these results it was concluded that there was a potential role for mGA based land-use planning tools in researching into, and deliberating on, the possible impacts of policy or other factors affecting land-use systems. It was further concluded that the tools should not be used in isolation since there was the need for stake-holder inputs to adequately define the range of feasible and practical land-use plans.     

基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价研究

风险评价是风险管理的重要阶段,针对农产品加工企业特点,提出了一种基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价方法。该方法初步解决了农产品加工企业风险管理中的关键问题——风险因素的识别。以某农产品加工公司为例,介绍了该方法的应用过程。     

节水灌溉实时决策系统

为寻求利用有限水资源取得最高作物产量或最大效益的灌溉方案,应根据不同供给水源的时空分布,作物品种与生长期和农田水分状况进行综合分析,系统分析方法的线性或非线性规划方法可望得到最优结果。     

竹纤维的开发和应用

综述了竹纤维的研究意义、国内外研究现状,及其在纺织、经济墙板、造纸、竹炭纤维、竹/玻璃纤维复合等领域的应用,指出开发竹纤维具有很好的经济效益和社会效益。     

福建沿海水域互花米草蔓延的动态监测分析

利用1999/2000年和2006/2007年2个不同时相的遥感影像对福建省沿海水域的互花米草进行解译提取,并结合地理信息数据和社会统计数据进行变化分析。研究表明:基于专家决策树的福建省互花米草信息提取法具有较高的解译精度,动态监测结果显示,7a来福建沿海水域互花米草蔓延迅速,已侵占了大片的养殖水域和滩涂资源,研究旨在为引起有关部门的高度重视并采取必要的治理措施提供理论依据。     

基于熵权的导流标准多目标决策分析

通过分析决策方案目标集．采用信息熵权与决策者的主观权重相结合的方法确定综合权重．运用多目标决策理论，建立导流标准多目标模糊优选模型。该模型系统地考虑了决策方案目标集的客观因素和决策者的主观因素。通过锦屏一级水电站施工导流标准的决策分析，说明该方法和模型是有效的．很好地解决了导流工程的施工强度、投资及风险损失的关系。     

农产品分级决策方法的研究现状与发展趋势

综述了国内外水果、蔬菜及其它农产品分级决策方法的研究与应用现状,归纳了现有研究尚存的主要问题,如研究对象比较单一、信息采集不全面、没有统一的分级标准等.提出广泛扩展研究对象种类、搞好农产品分级与标准化工作,把研究适合我国国情的农产品分级决策方法等作为今后的发展趋势.