Genetic evaluation of growth of Kenya Boran cattle using random regression models

Data consisting of 18 884 weight records collected from 1273 Boran cattle from birth to 24 months of age were used to estimate covariance functions and genetic parameters for growth of Boran cattle using random regression (RR) models under a situation of small herd size and inconsistent recording. The RR model fitted quadratic Legendre polynomials of age at recording for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Genetic variance increased from birth, reaching an asymptotic value at 455 days and was maximum at 525 days of age after which it gradually dropped. Permanent environmental variance increased throughout the trajectory. Estimates of temporary environmental variance were heterogeneous across ages. Direct heritability and permanent environmental variance as a proportion of phenotypic variance fluctuated greatly during the early ages but later stabilized at intermediate to later ages; the estimates ranged from 0.11 to 0.33 and from 0.18 to 0.83, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates were positive, ranging from 0.10 to unity. The estimates declined with increasing in lag between the age points. Phenotypic correlation pattern was erratic between early ages, negatively low (-0.02) between the extreme data points and moderate to highly positive (>0.50) between intermediate and later points, with prominent spikes along the diagonal. It is concluded that RR models have potential for modelling growth of Boran cattle, notwithstanding conditions of small herd sizes and inconsistent recording.     

不同地理来源草鱼群体杂交后代的生长性能分析

[目的]该研究旨在评估10个不同地理来源草鱼群体(佛山群体、肇庆群体、荆州群体1、荆州群体2、荆州群体3、鄂州群体、益阳群体、长沙群体1、长沙群体2和江苏群体)杂交后代的生长性能.[方法]以该10个群体为亲本构建了15个杂交组合进行同塘生长对比.对4月龄、7月龄、8月龄、10月龄、12月龄、15月龄和18月龄的杂交组合后代的体质量进行测量.以4月龄体质量为协变量,运用协方差分析对不同杂交组合后代进行生长性能分析.[结果]在18月龄时荆州群体2♀×佛山群体♂杂交组合后代平均体质量最高,为1 892.90 g,比其他杂交组合平均体质量分别高3.51％～32.36％.经多重比较分析结果显示,荆州群体2 ♀×佛山群体♂和荆州群体1♀×佛山群体♂杂交组合后代的体质量显著高于其他杂交组合(P＜0.05).[结论]生产上,应用这2个具有生长优势的组合生产优质苗种进行推广,可大幅度提高渔民的经济效益,另外该结果可为快速生长草鱼核心群体的确定奠定基础.     

大孔径闪烁仪与涡度相关系统对灌溉农田蒸散量的对比观测

蒸散是地表能量平衡的重要组成部分, 在土壤-植物-大气连续体的能量、质量、动量交换过程中起着重要作用。大孔径闪烁仪(LAS)是近时期兴起的观测跨像元尺度地表通量的地面仪器, 为验证其观测数据的可靠性, 本文把专家认可且在中国生态系统研究网络(CERN)中广泛应用的涡度相关仪(EC)的观测数据作为参考依据, 于2010 年8 月在中国科学院栾城农业生态系统试验站夏玉米田对大孔径闪烁仪计算结果进行验证。验证结果表明, 两种仪器测定的地表感热通量日变化和月变化观测结果基本一致。由于下垫面属性、环境因子及观测范围等因素的影响, 大孔径闪烁仪与涡度相关仪观测的蒸散量日变化之间有一定的差异,但日蒸散总量的测定基本一致。试验证明了大孔径闪烁仪观测数据的准确性。将大孔径闪烁仪计算的蒸散量与涡度相关仪观测值进行线性回归分析, 二者的吻合度较高(R²=0.800 4)。研究结果显示, 大孔径闪烁仪在地表水热通量的数据监测中具有很大的使用价值, 为日后用大孔径闪烁仪验证遥感估算蒸散值奠定了基础。     

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for test‐day milk yield in Brazilian Murrah buffaloes

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects and, subsequently, to obtain genetic parameters for buffalo’s test‐day milk production using random regression models on Legendre polynomials (LPs). A total of 17 935 test‐day milk yield (TDMY) from 1433 first lactations of Murrah buffaloes, calving from 1985 to 2005 and belonging to 12 herds located in São Paulo state, Brazil, were analysed. Contemporary groups (CGs) were defined by herd, year and month of milk test. Residual variances were modelled through variance functions, from second to fourth order and also by a step function with 1, 4, 6, 22 and 42 classes. The model of analyses included the fixed effect of CGs, number of milking, age of cow at calving as a covariable (linear and quadratic) and the mean trend of the population. As random effects were included the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. The additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were modelled by LP of days in milk from quadratic to seventh degree polynomial functions. The model with additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects adjusted by quintic and sixth order LP, respectively, and residual variance modelled through a step function with six classes was the most adequate model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Heritability estimates decreased from 0.44 (first week) to 0.18 (fourth week). Unexpected negative genetic correlation estimates were obtained between TDMY records at first weeks with records from middle to the end of lactation, being the values varied from ?0.07 (second with eighth week) to ?0.34 (1st with 42nd week). TDMY heritability estimates were moderate in the course of the lactation, suggesting that this trait could be applied as selection criteria in milking buffaloes.     

基于协方差阵结构优选的作物品种区域试验分析

论述了线性混合模型方差协方差结构与作物品种区域试验分析模型的对应关系,以我国2005-2006年东北华北玉米8组区域试验资料为例,按照线性混合模型分析原理及模型拟合信息量准则与似然比测验,对区域试验品种方差协方差的结构特性及不同方差协方差结构模型在品种效应估计与评价的差异状况进行了探讨。结果表明,在分析的所有试验中,环境间品种效应方差协方差均不符合方差分析模型假设的同质性结构,而是呈现为各种异质性结构;产量效应测验差异显著的品种对数目在方差分析模型与最佳方差协方差结构线性混合模型间的一致率平均为86%,品种产量效应排序在两种模型间也存在明显不同,品种产量效应估计的平均误差在最佳方差协方差结构线性混合模型小于在方差分析模型。     

Estimates of covariance functions for growth of Nelore cattle applying a parametric correlation structure to model within-animal correlations

A total of 20,065 weights recorded on 3016 Nelore animals were used to estimate covariance functions for growth from birth to 630 days of age, assuming a parametric correlation structure to model within-animal correlations. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Genetic effects of the animal and its dam and maternal permanent environmental effects were modelled by random regressions on Legendre polynomials of age at recording. Changes in direct permanent environmental effect variances were modelled by a polynomial variance function, together with a parametric correlation function to account for correlations between ages. Stationary and nonstationary models were used to model within-animal correlations between different ages. Residual variances were considered homogeneous or heterogeneous, with changes modelled by a step or polynomial function of age at recording. Based on Bayesian information criterion, a model with a cubic variance function combined with a nonstationary correlation function for permanent environmental effects, with 49 parameters to be estimated, fitted best. Modelling within-animal correlations through a parametric correlation structure can describe the variation pattern adequately. Moreover, the number of parameters to be estimated can be decreased substantially compared to a model fitting random regression on Legendre polynomial of age.     

温带草地蒸散发及波文比观测与比较:涡动相关及波文比系统

蒸散发的精确观测及估算是水资源管理及水文遥感验证的基础。该文利用已有的涡动塔观测数据集,配合波文比系统进行了同步观测,对二者观测的结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:涡动相关法和波文比方法估算的蒸散发均值及季节变动分别为298.73±128.58 W·m-2和272.37±116.87 W·m-2,整体而言这两种方法所观测的蒸散发较为一致,决定系数R2=0.75,平均相对误差小于6%。较涡动相关法,波文比方法估算潜热较低。生长季内,植被在生长初期及割草期出现明显的差别,表明波文比系统在植被生长旺盛期测量潜热效果更为稳定。两种方法估算的波文比具有相似的日变化及季节变动趋势。波文比存在明显的日变化及季节变动,其变动均值及标准差为0.21±0.42;其日变化与太阳辐射相关度较强(R2变动为0.41~0.52),其季节变化与叶面积指数(LAI)具有较高的非线性相关性(R2=0.65),而土壤水分对季节变动影响较小。该研究表明:在温带湿润草地生态系统,植被的生长很大程度上调节着该系统能量的分配。以上研究结果对波文比系统的实际应用具有一定的参考价值。     

A flexible regression model for diameter prediction

We present a functional regression model for diameter prediction. Usually stem form is estimated from a regression model using dbh and height of the sample tree as predictor. With our model additional diameter observations measured at arbitrary locations within the sample tree can be incorporated in the estimation in order to calibrate a standard prediction based on dbh and height. For this purpose, the stem form of a sample tree is modelled as a smooth random function. The observed diameters are assumed as independent realizations from a sample of possible trajectories of the stem contour. The population average of the stem form within a given dbh and height class is estimated with the taper curves applied in the national forest inventory in Germany. Tree deviation from the population average is modelled with the help of a Karhunen–Loève expansion for the random part of the trajectory. Eigenfunctions and scores of the Karhunen–Loève expansion are estimated through conditional expectations within the methodological framework of functional principal component analysis (FPCA). In addition to a calibrated estimation of the stem form, FPCA provides asymptotic pointwise or simultaneous confidence intervals for the calibrated diameter predictions. For the application of functional principal component analysis modelling the covariance function of the random process is crucial. The main features of the functional regression model are discussed informally and demonstrated by means of practical examples.     

不同方差协方差结构线性混合模型在玉米品种区域试验中的适用性及模型误用对分析结果的影响

为研究不同方差协方差结构线性混合模型对区试分析的影响。采用2002-2006年中国40个玉米区试组数据,用7种不同结构的线性混合模型分别对数据进行拟合分析并利用信息量准则选择每组数据的最佳模型,对在不同方差协方差结构模型下区试品种效应估计与评价的差异进行探讨。结果表明,不同方差协方差结构模型对试验数据拟合的效果不一样,没有一个模型对所有试验资料均是最佳的;AMMI-1和FA(2)结构模型作为最佳模型的百分率最大,适用性最广泛;不同结构模型对区试品种效应的估计及评价不同,FA(1)模型的稳健性最好,方差分析模型对品种进行差异显著性分析时的误差不同程度地大于其他结构模型。不同方差协方差结构线性混合模型适用于不同试验数据,模型误用对品种效应的估计和评价有较大影响;在实际区试中,应利用信息量准则选用最佳结构模型进行分析,以提高作物区试分析及品种评价的准确性。     

华北粗砂土免耕桃园生态尺度水分利用效率研究

为了给制定果园精准灌溉管理方案提供理论依据,采用涡度相关技术,监测并探讨粗砂土立地条件下12年树龄自然生草免耕桃园生态尺度水分耗散及水分利用效率的动态变化。结果表明,桃园全年监测期内,日平均蒸散耗水量和水分利用效率分别为(2.2±2.1) mm和0.44 g/kg,饱和水汽压差是影响桃树旺盛生长季日水分利用效率的关键因子,群体水平日平均水分利用效率由高到低的顺序为：果实收获后＞果实成熟期与果实膨大后期＞果实膨大初期与开花期;季节变化过程中,蒸散耗水量和水分利用效率均呈单峰型变化趋势,在果实膨大后期至成熟期蒸散耗水量较多,且日最高蒸散量达到7.1 mm,日平均水分利用效率则在果实收获后达到高峰,日平均水分利用效率最高为2.1 g/kg;全年累积蒸散耗水量为790.6 mm,平均作物系数(Kc=1.08)高于FAO(1998)推荐值达27%。果实膨大后期-成熟期是桃树水分耗散高峰期,采取精准灌溉等措施进行果园水分科学管理是提高果树水分利用效率的关键。