Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

A Potential Screening System for Identifying Sorghum Ecotypes with Increased Lysine in the Seeds

Classical “high-lysine” sorghum lines are characterized by smaller seeds than average, due to a decrease in prolamin synthesis and a subsequent decrease in yield. To exploit the natural variation in lysine content and to identify ecotypes with a seed lysine content higher than average, characterized by plump seeds, a method was developed based on root-growth inhibition of seeds growing on a medium containing aminoethylcysteine (AEC), a lysine analogue. By using a collection of sorghum mutants and ecotypes a correlation coefficient of 0.926 between root length and lysine content was established. This method, which uses the root length of plants growing on aec to indicate which lines have a potential elevated lysine content, can be applied for the screening of sorghum germplasm. Since this is a non-destructive method it can also be used at the individual seed level, for example for screening progenies of regenerated plants from in vitro culture to exploit the somaclonal variation.     

A novel approach to studying the effects of temperature on soil biogeochemistry using a thermal gradient bar

The temperature dependence of chemical reaction rates and microbial metabolism mean that temperature is a key factor regulating soil trace gas emissions and hydrochemistry. Here we evaluated a novel approach for studying the thermal response of soils, by examining the effects of temperature on gas emissions and hydrochemistry in (a) peat and (b) soil from a Sitka spruce plantation. A thermal gradient was applied along an aluminium bar, allowing soil to be incubated contemporaneously from 2 to 18 °C. The approach demonstrated clear differences in the biogeochemical responses of the two soil types to warming. The peat showed no significant emission of CH₄ at temperatures below 6 °C, while above 6 °C, a marked increase in the rate of release was apparent up to 15 °C (Q₁₀ = 2.5) with emissions being similar between 15 and 18 °C. Conversely, CH₄ emissions from the forest soil did not respond to warming. Nitrate availability in the peat decreased by 90% between 2 and 18 °C (P < 0.01), whereas concentrations in the forest soil did not respond. Sulphate availability in the peat decreased significantly with warming (60%, P < 0.01), while the forest soil showed the opposite response (a 30% increase, P < 0.01). Conventionally, thermal responses are studied by incubating individual soil samples at different temperatures, involving lengthy preparation and facilities to incubate samples at different temperatures simultaneously. Data collected on a given thermal response is usually limited and thus interpolated or extrapolated. The thermal gradient method overcomes these problems, is simple and flexible, and can be adapted for a wide range of sample types (not confined to soil). Such apparatus may prove useful in the optimization of management practices to mitigate the effects of climate change, as thermal responses will differ depending on land use and soil type.     

WEPP模型中的CLIGEN与BPCDG应用对比研究

通过对遂宁组紫色土产流、产沙侵蚀的观测,运用迄今为止最为复杂的土壤侵蚀预测模型WEPP模型进行单次降雨侵蚀预测,与实测值比较,并对比通过气候生成器CLIGEN和断点生成器BPCDG的产生的气候参数对预测值的影响。通过分析比较结果,认为WEPP模型对遂宁组紫色土侵蚀过程预测合理,而且利用断点生成器BPCDG的预测结果要优于气候生成器CLIGEN的预测结果。     

Re-defining tillage erosion: quantifying intensity–direction relationships for complex terrain

Abstract. Current tillage erosion models account for the influence of tillage direction in the magnitude of the soil (tillage) transport coefficient. It is argued here that this is counter-intuitive and causes significant problems in modelling tillage erosion in areas of complex terrain. This article examines whether a re-modelling of tillage erosion is possible that separates tillage direction (an interaction with the landform) from the soil transport coefficient (a measure of tillage intensity representing the combination of implement erosivity and soil erodibility). Experimental data for mouldboard ploughing upslope, downslope and cross-slope at Coombe Barton Farm, Devon are examined. Integration of data for all directions into a single relationship, which relates translocation in the direction of tillage to slope in the direction of tillage and translocation perpendicular to tillage to slope perpendicular to tillage, is not possible using previously published methods of analysis. However, when total translocation distance is regressed against the tangent of the slope at 45° to the tillage direction (bisecting the tillage direction and the direction of overturning) it is found that a single relationship can be used to describe tillage in all three directions. Therefore, this relationship is used to determine a single value of the soil transport coefficient ( k _fTa) for constant soil and implement conditions but different tillage directions. This redefinition of tillage is important both for true estimation of tillage erosion severity, the adirectional coefficient being 40% larger than the directional coefficient, and for modelling of tillage erosion in complex terrain. These improvements are vital when tillage erosion simulation is used to direct soil conservation strategies.     

哈达门森林公园的旅游气候资源

地处阴山山系中段大青山脉林区的哈园，其气候区划为我国中温带亚干旱气候类型。就整体而言，四季分明，内陆气候特征强烈；但因巨大阴山山地效应，年降雨量超过４５０ｍｍ，植被繁茂，形成多种多样的小气候环境，以高山环境、森林环境及峡谷环境为代表，它们冷暖干湿分异形大。气候的多样性，可满足旅游者的不同要求，产生了非凡吸引力，为哈园开发建设的宝贵自然资源之一。     

Effects of temperature,vapour pressure deficit and radiation on infectivity of conidia ofBotrytis cinerea and on susceptibility of gerbera petals

The effect of vapour pressure deficit, temperature and radiation on the postharvest susceptibility of gerbera flowers toB. cinerea, on the water relations of gerbera flowers and on the lesion formation after conidial infection ofB. cinerea was studied. The temperature range in whichB. cinerea could germinate and growin vitro is 5–30 °C. In climate chamber experiments flowers had more lesions ofB. cinerea at temperatures of 20 and 25 °C than at 10 and 15°C. At 15, 20 and 25°C the infectivity ofB. cinerea conidia was negatively affected during a storage-period of 7 days. At a vapour pressure deficit (VPD) of 200 Pa significantly more conidia ofB. cinerea were infective than at 800 Pa. At a VPD of 800 Pa the susceptibility of gerbera flowers forB. cinerea was not significantly different than at 200 Pa. High radiation levels in glasshouses in spring and summer negatively influenced the infectivity of conidia ofB. cinerea on the flower surface, but did not affect the susceptibility of gerbera flowers forB. cinerea. In spring and early summer conidia lost their infectivity at high radiation levels, high temperatures and high levels of VPD. In summer gerbera flowers could be more susceptible toB. cinerea because of high temperatures in glasshouses, but the negative effect of radiation on the conidia ofB. cinerea seemed to overrule the temperature effect. Thus, the numbers of lesions in spring and summer can be low compared with the numbers in other seasons, although the numbers ofB. cinerea colonies on spore traps can be high. The effect of temperature on the susceptibility of gerbera flowers can probably be explained by changes of water status in the petals. At higher temperatures the number of lesions and the turgor (=water potential—osmotic potential) in the petals increased. Temperatures <10°C during lesion formation (RH>95% and VPD<50 Pa) had a temporary negative effect on the number of lesions. After 3 days of incubation the numbers of lesions were about equal (30 lesions/cm²) from 5 to 20°C. At 30°C no lesion formation was observed even after 3 days.     

Historical range of variability in eastern Cascades forests,Washington, USA

The historical range of variability (HRV) has been suggested as a coarse filter approach to maintain ecosystem sustainability and resiliency. The historical range of variability in forest age structure for the central eastern Cascade Range in Washington State, USA was developed from historical fire return intervals and the manner in which fire acted as both cyclic and stochastic processes. The proportions of seven forest structural stages calculated through these processes were applied to the area of each forest series within the central eastern Cascades landscape. Early successional forest stages were more common in high elevation forest than low elevation forest. The historical proportion of old growth and late successional forest varied from 38 to 63 percent of the forested landscape. These process-based estimates are consistent with those developed from forest structural information. HRV is a valuable planning tool for ecosystem conservation purposes, but must be applied to real landscapes with consideration of both temporal and spatial scale. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.