应用高光谱数据定量反演查干湖水质参数研究

湖泊水质下降和富营养化问题日益严重,传统监测方法已经日益不能满足水质监测的需要。该文通过野外高光谱仪器测定查干湖水体反射光谱,分析研究水体反射光谱特征与水质参数叶绿素a含量、透明度和浊度之间的关系,运用多种半经验算法建立反演模型。结果表明:单波段光谱反射率与叶绿素a和浊度的相关系数较小,但与透明度相关系数较高;光谱反射率通过对数、比值转换,可以有效的提高叶绿素a和浊度估测模型的精度,却对透明度作用不大。总体来说,叶绿素a和浊度估测模型效果较好,透明度高光谱估测模型相对较差,需进一步研究。     

Accounting for uncertainty in pedotransfer functions in vulnerability assessments of pesticide leaching to groundwater

A simulation tool for site-specific vulnerability assessments of pesticide leaching to groundwater was developed, based on the pesticide fate and transport model MACRO, parameterized using pedotransfer functions and reasonable worst-case parameter values. The effects of uncertainty in the pedotransfer functions on simulation results were examined for 48 combinations of soils, pesticides and application timings, by sampling pedotransfer function regression errors and propagating them through the simulation model in a Monte Carlo analysis. An uncertainty factor, f(u), was derived, defined as the ratio between the concentration simulated with no errors, c(sim), and the 80th percentile concentration for the scenario. The pedotransfer function errors caused a large variation in simulation results, with f(u) ranging from 1.14 to 1440, with a median of 2.8. A non-linear relationship was found between f(u) and c(sim), which can be used to account for parameter uncertainty by correcting the simulated concentration, c(sim), to an estimated 80th percentile value. For fine-textured soils, the predictions were most sensitive to errors in the pedotransfer functions for two parameters regulating macropore flow (the saturated matrix hydraulic conductivity, K(b), and the effective diffusion pathlength, d) and two water retention function parameters (van Genuchten's N and alpha parameters). For coarse-textured soils, the model was also sensitive to errors in the exponent in the degradation water response function and the dispersivity, in addition to K(b), but showed little sensitivity to d. To reduce uncertainty in model predictions, improved pedotransfer functions for K(b), d, N and alpha would therefore be most useful.     

贝加尔针茅＋线叶菊草地退化系列的定量划分和动态模型的建立

对贝加尔针茅(Stipa baicalensis) 线叶菊(Filifolium sibiricum)草地中贝加尔针茅、麻花头(Serratula centauroides)、日荫菅(Carex pediformis)和菊叶委陵菜(Potentilla tanacetifolia)4种主要植物的盖度、频度和植被指数进行了分析.结果表明: ①通过SPSS的聚类分析,实验区草地可以划分为3个草地退化系列,即轻度退化、中度退化、重度退化;②随草地退化程度的增强,贝加尔针茅的盖度、频度和指数表现出降低的趋势,麻花头与日荫菅的盖度、频度和植被指数表现出先增加后降低的趋势,而菊叶委陵菜盖度、频度和植被指数则表现出增加的趋势;③轻度退化、中度退化、重度退化3个不同退化系列的草地变化可通过 Y1=0.020 5X1 0.003 9X2 - 0.003 2X3 0.003 9X4 - 47.245 6;Y2=0.005 4X1 0.005 2X2-0.003 4X3 0.011 9X4-16.734 1;Y3=0.002 2X1 0.003 5X2-0.001 6X3 0.004 6X4-3.854 8(其中,Y表示最终的变化值,X1,X2,X3,X4分别表示草地最优状态时贝加尔针茅、麻花头、日荫菅和菊叶委陵菜4种植物的指数)来反映.     

田阳县水稻纹枯病病情指数与病株率关系数学模型的初步研究

依据田阳县2002—2012年水稻纹枯病观测田的病情系统调查记载表数据,采用分层随机抽样法抽取100对数据,构建了病情指数y与病株率x数学预测模型y=0．2919x-0．1478（％,0〈x〈20）,应用于预测预报时可减少调查工作量,提高工作效率。     

宁夏南部山区退耕还林后草畜产业发展探讨——以海原县为例

退耕还林政策对加强生态建设,优化农村产业结构,促进农村经济发展,推进西部大开发和全面建设小康社会具有重大的意义。文章在对宁夏南部山区退耕还林的情况实地调研的工作基础之上,通过对宁南山区、海原县草畜产业基础数据的比较分析和定量分析,建立草畜产业生产过程的灰色控制模型,找出草蓄产业发展的优势及存在的问题,提出海原县应加强政府管理、扶持龙头企业、延长产业链条、加大科技支撑等解决对策。     

套作春玉米氮磷钾化肥和有机肥合理配比的生产函数分析

采用田间试验的方法，对苏南地区麦玉米稻三热制中套作春玉米的合理施肥量肥料配比进行了研究。     

基于野外实测高光谱数据的干旱区耕作土壤含水量反演研究

利用2011年3月野外实地采集的不同含水量土壤的高光谱数据,研究了南疆地区耕作土壤草甸土含水量与高光谱反射率之间的定量关系,构建了一元线性回归与多元逐步回归的土壤含水量预测模型.结果表明,土壤含水量在380～ 1080 nm波段与反射率呈负相关关系;反射率经倒数(1/R)、对数(logR)、一阶微分(R’)变换后可提高其与含水量的相关性;以50个建模样本所建立模型的相关系数均达到极显著水平,所有模型通过对37验证样本进行预测,比较决定系数、均方根误差、相对误差后,表明多元逐步回归模型的预测能力要优于一元线性回归模型,从所有模型中优选出以698、702、703、746、747 nm波段反射率倒数(1/R)建立的多元逐步回归模型为最优模型,该模型实测值与预测值之间的R2为0.9199,RMSE为1.6026,RE为0.6517,可用于基于野外高光谱数据的土壤含水量的估测.     

Statistical Model on the Time and Time Difference Error of Arrival in TDOA Location Estimation

Additional time delay of arrival resulted from non-line of sight(NLOS)propagation and muti-path effect in(cellular) environment is the dominant factor resulting in TDOA location error,study on the statistical property of TDOA error is useful for improving the accuracy of TDOA location.Based on the exponential distribution property of NLOS propagation delay,and considering the system error resulted from the signal detection,the authors establish a statistical model of arrival time and a model of TDOA error distribution by statistics when non-light of sight and multi-path propagation exist.The models reflect the statistical property of arrival time and TDOA error in cell network,the simulation shows that the proposed models have a good accuracy and a satisfactory behavior.     

精准扶贫背景下对农业产业扶贫模式的研究

本研究将高作镇作为实征对象,充分围绕高作镇实际情况,提出几点农业产业扶贫模 式,并总结了高作镇农业产业扶贫的成果,旨在希望通过本研究发挥抛砖引玉的作用。     

青藏高原东部雨季降水量分布模型的建立

采用高分辨率的3"数字高程模型资料和青藏高原东部102个常规气象观测站5～9月份的降水资料,根据降水随高度分布将站点分为3类,采用多元逐步回归的方法,建立了青藏高原40年(1961-2000年)雨季逐年降水量和经度、纬度、海拔高度、坡度、坡向、开放度等地理、地形因子之间的关系模型,估算了青藏高原地区降水量的空间分布.结果表明:建立的关于青藏高原降水量与诸因子之间方程的相关性显著,相对误差在20%,平均相对误差在4.4%之内,估算模型的相关系数均通过置信度为0.95 的检验;并且地理地形因子对40年平均和逐年降水量分布特征的影响较为稳定,其归一化的模拟系数基本控制在±1之间,这对定量分析和评价站点稀少、地形复杂的高原降水有重要意义.