湖南省粮食产量波动的影响因素分析及预测

旨在维护国家稳定,为预判粮食生产前景、提高粮食生产效率、保障粮食安全提供理论依据。利用湖南省统计数据,运用灰色关联分析法筛选关联性较强的影响因素,并建立GM(1,N)预测模型预测粮食产量。2008—2017年与湖南省粮食产量关联度最大的影响因素是粮食作物播种面积和农业机械总动力;科技因素是影响2008—2017年湖南省粮食产量的主要因素,其次是自然因素,社会因素;2018—2027年湖南省粮食产量有较小波动,且农业机械总动力和财政农业支出影响较大;农业机械总动力在前后十年对粮食产量都有较重要的影响,越来越占据主导地位。粮食产量受国家政策的影响,受农业机械总动力影响最大,维持产量水平需高度重视农业机械化水平,稳步提高粮食作物播种面积。     

农业生产基地项目环境影响评价要点分析及探讨

农业生产基地项目具有影响范围大、产品服务多元化等特点，涉及行业类别较多，其环境影响评价文件也相对复杂。环境影响评价报告编制单位应充分与建设方进行沟通，熟悉项目建设内容，挖掘项目可能的产生污染的环节和设施，明确环境影响范围和环境敏感点，并对项目损益进行两方面的分析。     

两型社会建设背景下生态效率评价研究——以湖南省为例

基于"两型"社会建设的目标与内涵,选取了湖南省生态效率综合评价指标,以2003—2012年湖南省数据为样本,采用DEA数据包络分析法计算各年份的生态效率,并对不同年份的能源消耗量、水资源消费量以及三废的排放量进行深入分析。结果表明,随着湖南省GDP的增长,生态效率也不断在提高。针对不同的资源产出率和环境产出率,湖南省应树立可持续发展理念,实现经济由粗放型发展向集约型发展转变;发展创新技术,推进湖南省两型社会的发展;完善法律法规体系,加大宣传力度,改变保守观念,提高人们的环保意识。     

气相色谱-串联质谱法测定柑橘中5种杀螨剂残留

建立了气相色谱-串联质谱法(GC-MS/MS)检测柑橘中5种杀螨剂残留分析方法。样品经乙腈提取、氯化钠盐析后,取有机相用Qu EChERS方法净化,利用GC-MS/MS在多反应监测(MRM)模式下进行测定,外标法定量。5种杀螨剂在0.005~0.5mg/L浓度范围内呈现良好的线性关系,相关系数r^2均>0.996,方法定量限为0.005 mg/kg。在0.005、0.01和0.1mg/kg 3种添加水平下,加标回收率为70.6%~111.3%,相对标准偏差(RSD)为1.07%~14.64%。本方法简便、重现性良好,可用于柑橘类水果样品中杀螨剂的日常检测。     

Identification and expression analysis of 11 MADS-box genes in peach (Prunus persica var. nectarina ‘Luxing’)

MADS-box genes play a central role in the development of flowers in plants. In this study, 11 PpMADSs were isolated from ‘Luxing’ peach, and the expression levels were detected in different tissues and fruit development. Eleven PpMADSs, designated as PpMADS13, 14, 18, 23, 24, 25, 32, 33, 34, 35, and 39 were isolated. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that PpMADS13, 14, and 18 belonged to SVP, AGL15, and MIKC* group respectively; PpMADS23, 24, 25, and 39 were in the Mα group; PpMADS32, 33, 34, and 35 belonged to the Mγ group. Predictions from subcellular localization showed that 10 PpMADS were located in the nucleus. RT-PCR revealed that PpMADS13 was expressed in stems, leaves, and during fruit development (70d); PpMADS14 was expressed in sepals, stamens, petals, and during flower development; PpMADS18 was expressed in roots, stems, leaves, sepals, ovaries, stamens, petals, and during flower and fruit development; all MADS-box genes (expect for PpMADS33) in the Mα and Mγ group were expressed in roots, stems, leaves, sepals, ovaries, stamens, petals, and during flower development; few genes were expressed during fruit development. These results indicated that PpMADS may play a crucial regulatory role in vegetative growth and development processes of flowers and fruits in peaches.     

Pathogen Analysis of Goat's Respiratory Diseases

To investigate the pathogens of goat's respiratory disease from a goat farm in Guangxi province, the epidemiological investigation, clinic observation, pathological examination, bacterium isolation and identification, biochemical test, PCR and animal experiment test were conducted.The preventive and control measures were taken on the basis of pathogen epidemiological characteristics and drug sensitive test results.The results showed that Mycoplasma, influenza virus and parasite were negative by isolation and culture or PCR, however, two strains of gram-negative bacteria named MS1 and MS2 were isolated from lung.MS1 was identified as Serratia marcescens by biochemical test and 16S rRNA sequencing, which shared 99% nucleotide homology with other Serratia marcescens in GenBank.And MS2 was identified as E.coil by the same methods that shared 99% nucleotide homology with other E.coli in GenBank.Animal experiment showed that two strains could cause death in mice.The drug sensitive tests showed two strains were highly sensitive to spectinomycin, amikacin, kanamicin and neomycin.Kanamycin and dexamethasone were used to treat the sick goats, and achieved good results.     

质量控制图在水产饲料氨基酸分析中的应用

通过对实验室自制标准物料-豆粕样品中氨基酸含量的多次测定,建立X-S质量控制图,开展水产饲料氨基酸分析日常质量控制。试验按照GB/T 18246-2000,通过微波水解-离子交换-柱后衍生-紫外检测法对豆粕样品氨基酸含量进行连续测定,并以FAPAS奶粉标准物质验证,利用偏度-峰度检验法对离群值进行判断,建立赖氨酸、甘氨酸、氨基酸总量质量控制图。结果显示,质量控制图中豆粕质控样赖氨酸、甘氨酸、氨基酸总量测定的RSD值均小于4%,FAPAS奶粉标准物质测定值落在参考范围内,建立的质量控制图能对日常氨基酸检测结果进行有效监控。结果表明,所建立氨基酸质量控制图直观有效,能对过程存在的异常因素起到预警作用,并可节约成本。     

基于改进GM(1,N)模型的我国大豆价格影响因素分析及预测研究

大豆是我国重要的粮食作物和油料作物,其价格对于国民经济尤其是农业经济的影响意义深远。大豆价格的稳定对于我国大豆市场的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在灰色理论的基础上,提出了一种改进GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型,首先运用灰色关联分析法对我国大豆价格的影响因素进行分析,选择主要的影响因素;再将这些影响因素作为模型的相关因素变量,构建GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型。采用2010-2015年的大豆数据进行实证研究,模型选取国内大豆自给量、世界大豆产量、国民消费价格指数、消费者信心指数4个变量作为相关因素变量;模型预测误差为2.10%,预测精度较高,能够较好地掌握大豆价格的变化规律,可以为大豆价格市场预测及国家宏观政策的制定提供理论指导。     

峨眉山野生茶树资源农艺性状多样性分析

为挖掘峨眉山野生茶树和群体种中的优良资源,利用因子分析、聚类分析和感官审评等方法,对峨眉山40份野生茶树种质资源农艺性状进行遗传多样性分析和资源评价。结果表明,峨眉山茶树种质资源丰富,且多以灌木型为主;18个芽叶形态性状的变异系数为7.70%~60.99%,变异系数最大的性状是芽叶色泽(60.99%)。因子分析表明,18个芽叶形态性状综合为6个公因子,前6个公因子的特征值大于1且累计贡献率达80.74%,主要代表性指标为叶片大小、叶片锯齿和叶面特征等。聚类分析将研究材料分为5个大的类群,显示了复杂的亲缘关系和丰富的遗传多样性。适制性研究表明,初步筛选的11份种质资源制绿茶适制性较好,感官审评总分在92分以上,大体表现为香气鲜香带花香、清香高长带花香或栗香浓郁带花香,滋味鲜爽、鲜甜或鲜浓醇。